Lens
vs
Paris FC
Garuda Lions Prediction: Paris FC
1 – 2 Predicted score · 9% model probability
- WhyHigher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.85 vs 1.53.
- RiskThe other two outcomes still add up to 63%.
Lens vs Paris FC overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Lens vs Paris FC
| Probability | Lens | Draw | Paris FC |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 30.2% | 23.0% | 46.7% |
| Market | 39.1% | 26.6% | 34.2% |
| Final | 36.9% | 25.7% | 37.4% |
| Edge | -2.2% | -0.9% | +3.1% |
Why Paris FC
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.85 vs 1.53.
- Better recent form: 4 wins in the last 6 vs 2 for the opposition.
- The market prices Paris FC below our published probability: +3.1 percentage points of edge.
Best available price on the pick: 2.86, recorded — the top price across the books in the table below, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: +6.9% per unit staked (our 37.4% × 2.86 − 1).
Lens vs Paris FC match preview
In the upcoming Ligue 1 match, Lens faces Paris FC with both teams holding a 37% probability of winning, while a draw stands at 26%. The most likely scoreline predicted by our model is 1-2, with an expected goals tally of 1.53 for Lens and 1.85 for Paris FC. Recent form shows Lens with a mixed record of L-W-L-W-L-D, while Paris FC has been more consistent with W-L-W-D-W-W.
Both teams exhibit a strong likelihood of scoring, with our model indicating a 65% chance for both teams to find the net. Additionally, there is a 64% probability of over 2.5 goals in the match. Historically, Lens has dominated their last two encounters, securing two wins against Paris FC, who have yet to record a victory.
Lens and Paris FC team news
Lens news
- A. Sima — muscle injury
- I. Ganiou — knee injury
- J. Gradit — muscle injury
- M. Nawrocki — knee injury
Paris FC news
- J. Ikone — thigh injury
- N. Sangui — muscle injury
Reported injuries and suspensions from our data provider. Confirmed line-ups appear ~40 minutes before kickoff.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Lens and Paris FC expected goals
Total expected goals: 3.38
Lens and Paris FC attack and defence ratings
Lens
Paris FC
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Matchday 8 fixtures
Before and after this match
Lens vs Paris FC markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Paris FC | 37.4% | 2.68 | +3.1% | 2.86 |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 64.2% | 1.56 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 64.9% | 1.54 | — | — |
| Double chance | 12 (either side) | 74.3% | 1.35 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 53.3% | 1.88 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Lens | 36.9% |
| Draw | 25.7% | |
| Paris FC | 37.4% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 64.2% |
| Under 2.5 | 35.8% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 64.9% |
| No | 35.1% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 62.6% |
| 12 (either side) | 74.3% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 63.1% | |
| Handicap -1 | Paris FC win | 25.9% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 20.8% | |
| Loss | 53.3% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 10.1% |
| 1-2 | 9.1% | |
| 2-1 | 7.2% |
Lens vs Paris FC stats
Lens and Paris FC recent form
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Lens and Paris FC season so far
Lens record
- They have won 2 of their 6 league games this season, scoring 1.8 goals per match.
- They average 2.3 goals per game at home against 1.3 on the road.
- They have converted 3 of 3 penalties (100%).
- 42% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Paris FC record
- They have won 3 of their 6 league games this season, scoring 1.3 goals per match.
- They average 1.7 goals per game at home against 1.0 on the road.
- They have kept 3 clean sheets in 6 matches.
- They have failed to score in 3 of 6 matches.
- 38% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Lens vs Paris FC head-to-head
Last 2 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-02-14 | Paris FC | Lens | Ligue 1 | 0-5 |
| 2025-10-19 | Lens | Paris FC | Ligue 1 | 2-1 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Lens vs Paris FC odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 39.1%, draw 26.6%, away 34.2%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 2.49 | 3.78 | 2.86 |
| Bet365 | 2.45 | 3.50 | 2.80 |
| BetVictor | 2.38 | 3.50 | 2.63 |
| Betano | 2.42 | 3.60 | 2.77 |
| Betfair | 2.45 | 3.60 | 2.80 |
| Dafabet | 2.45 | 3.60 | 2.80 |
| Marathonbet | 2.45 | 3.72 | 2.82 |
| Pinnacle | 2.47 | 3.67 | 2.80 |
| SBO | 2.27 | 3.28 | 2.60 |
| William Hill | 2.38 | 3.40 | 2.70 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
25 snapshots recorded, from .