Auxerre
vs
Le Mans
Garuda Lions Prediction: Auxerre
2 – 1 Predicted score · 8% model probability
- WhyBetter recent form: 3 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.
- RiskNo edge: the market already prices this — Auxerre is the favourite, not a value bet.
Auxerre vs Le Mans overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Auxerre vs Le Mans
| Probability | Auxerre | Draw | Le Mans |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 40.8% | 22.9% | 36.3% |
| Market | 45.6% | 26.4% | 28.0% |
| Final | 44.4% | 25.6% | 30.1% |
| Edge | -1.2% | -0.9% | +2.1% |
Why Auxerre
- Better recent form: 3 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.
Best available price on the pick: 2.15, recorded — the top price across the books in the table below, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: -4.6% per unit staked (our 44.4% × 2.15 − 1).
Auxerre vs Le Mans match preview
Auxerre faces Le Mans in an upcoming Ligue 1 match with Auxerre holding a 44% probability of winning, while Le Mans stands at 31%. The most likely scoreline predicted by the model is 2-1 in favor of Auxerre, with an 8% likelihood. The expected goals for Auxerre are 1.87, compared to Le Mans' 1.67, indicating a competitive match.
In terms of recent form, Auxerre has recorded two wins and four losses in their last six matches, while Le Mans has struggled with only one win, two draws, and three losses. The model suggests a high chance of goals, with a 67% probability for over 2.5 goals and a 68% likelihood that both teams will score.
Auxerre and Le Mans team news
Auxerre news
- A. Diousse — knee injury
- B. Okoh — knee injury
- M. Senaya — hamstring injury
- R. Labeau Lascary — injury
- S. Fofana — groin injury
- T. Siwe — muscle injury
Le Mans news
- A. Bourabaa — ankle injury
- E. Colas — injury
- H. Voyer — thigh injury
Reported injuries and suspensions from our data provider. Confirmed line-ups appear ~40 minutes before kickoff.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Auxerre and Le Mans expected goals
Total expected goals: 3.54
Auxerre and Le Mans attack and defence ratings
Auxerre
Le Mans
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Matchday 8 fixtures
Before and after this match
Auxerre vs Le Mans markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Auxerre | 44.4% | 2.25 | -1.2% | 2.15 |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 66.8% | 1.50 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 67.6% | 1.48 | — | — |
| Double chance | 12 (either side) | 74.4% | 1.34 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 59.2% | 1.69 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Auxerre | 44.4% |
| Draw | 25.6% | |
| Le Mans | 30.1% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 66.8% |
| Under 2.5 | 33.2% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 67.6% |
| No | 32.4% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 69.9% |
| 12 (either side) | 74.4% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 55.6% | |
| Handicap -1 | Auxerre win | 21.6% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 19.2% | |
| Loss | 59.2% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 9.7% |
| 2-1 | 8.4% | |
| 1-2 | 7.9% |
Auxerre vs Le Mans stats
Auxerre and Le Mans recent form
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Auxerre and Le Mans season so far
Auxerre record
- They have won 2 of their 6 league games this season, scoring 1.3 goals per match.
Le Mans record
- They have won 1 of their 6 league games this season, scoring 1.7 goals per match.
- They average 2.0 goals per game at home against 1.3 on the road.
- 36% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Auxerre vs Le Mans head-to-head
No recent meetings on record
Auxerre vs Le Mans odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 45.5%, draw 26.5%, away 28.0%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 2.15 | 3.78 | 3.51 |
| Bet365 | 2.05 | 3.60 | 3.40 |
| BetVictor | 2.00 | 3.50 | 3.25 |
| Betano | 2.10 | 3.60 | 3.40 |
| Betfair | 2.10 | 3.75 | 3.30 |
| Dafabet | 2.13 | 3.60 | 3.40 |
| Marathonbet | 2.09 | 3.68 | 3.42 |
| Pinnacle | 2.08 | 3.70 | 3.53 |
| SBO | 2.12 | 3.17 | 2.91 |
| William Hill | 2.05 | 3.40 | 3.25 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
25 snapshots recorded, from .