Strasbourg
vs
Auxerre
Garuda Lions Prediction: Strasbourg
2 – 1 Predicted score · 9% model probability
- RiskNo edge: the market already prices this — Strasbourg is the favourite, not a value bet.
Strasbourg vs Auxerre overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Strasbourg vs Auxerre
| Probability | Strasbourg | Draw | Auxerre |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 39.4% | 25.2% | 35.4% |
| Market | 51.7% | 24.1% | 24.1% |
| Final | 48.6% | 24.4% | 27.0% |
| Edge | -3.1% | +0.3% | +2.8% |
Best available price on the pick: 1.88, recorded — the top price across the books in the table below, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: -8.5% per unit staked (our 48.6% × 1.88 − 1).
Strasbourg vs Auxerre match preview
Strasbourg enters this match with a probability of 49% to win, while Auxerre stands at 27%. The most likely scoreline predicted by our model is 2-1 in favor of Strasbourg, occurring with a 9% likelihood. The expected goals for Strasbourg are 1.59, compared to Auxerre's 1.47. Both teams have shown a tendency to score, with our model indicating a 60% chance for both teams to find the net.
In terms of recent form, Strasbourg has recorded three losses followed by a draw and two wins, while Auxerre's recent performances include two wins, a loss, and two additional losses. Historically, in their last four encounters, Strasbourg has achieved three victories and one draw against Auxerre, who has yet to secure a win in this matchup.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Strasbourg and Auxerre expected goals
Total expected goals: 3.01
Strasbourg and Auxerre attack and defence ratings
Strasbourg
Auxerre
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Matchday 9 fixtures
Before and after this match
Strasbourg vs Auxerre markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Strasbourg | 48.6% | 2.06 | -3.1% | 1.88 |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 56.1% | 1.78 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 59.4% | 1.68 | — | — |
| Double chance | 12 (either side) | 75.6% | 1.32 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 60.6% | 1.65 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Strasbourg | 48.6% |
| Draw | 24.4% | |
| Auxerre | 27.0% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 56.1% |
| Under 2.5 | 43.9% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 59.4% |
| No | 40.6% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 73.0% |
| 12 (either side) | 75.6% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 51.4% | |
| Handicap -1 | Strasbourg win | 19.3% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 20.1% | |
| Loss | 60.6% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 11.7% |
| 2-1 | 8.6% | |
| 1-2 | 8.1% |
Strasbourg vs Auxerre stats
Strasbourg and Auxerre recent form
| Strasbourg |
LLLLDW |
| Auxerre |
DWLWWL |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Strasbourg and Auxerre season so far
Strasbourg record
- They have won 2 of their 7 league games this season, scoring 1.7 goals per match.
- They average 2.0 goals per game on the road against 1.3 at home.
- 36% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Auxerre record
- They have won 3 of their 7 league games this season, scoring 1.6 goals per match.
- 30% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Strasbourg vs Auxerre head-to-head
Last 4 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-07 | Auxerre | Strasbourg | Ligue 1 | 0-0 |
| 2025-10-29 | Strasbourg | Auxerre | Ligue 1 | 3-0 |
| 2025-03-02 | Auxerre | Strasbourg | Ligue 1 | 0-1 |
| 2025-01-05 | Strasbourg | Auxerre | Ligue 1 | 3-1 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Strasbourg vs Auxerre odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 51.7%, draw 24.1%, away 24.1%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 1.87 | 4.16 | 4.16 |
| Bet365 | 1.80 | 3.80 | 3.80 |
| BetVictor | 1.75 | 3.80 | 3.90 |
| Betano | 1.88 | 3.90 | 3.85 |
| Betfair | 1.75 | 4.00 | 3.90 |
| Dafabet | 1.85 | 3.90 | 3.95 |
| Marathonbet | 1.82 | 4.05 | 4.05 |
| Pinnacle | 1.82 | 4.05 | 4.07 |
| SBO | 1.82 | 3.44 | 3.50 |
| William Hill | 1.80 | 3.75 | 3.80 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
15 snapshots recorded, from .