Lyon
vs
Angers
Garuda Lions Prediction: Lyon
2 – 1 Predicted score · 10% model probability
- WhyHigher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.33 vs 1.16.
- RiskNo edge: the market already prices this — Lyon is the favourite, not a value bet.
Lyon vs Angers overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Lyon vs Angers
| Probability | Lyon | Draw | Angers |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 60.9% | 20.2% | 18.8% |
| Market | 67.6% | 18.9% | 13.5% |
| Final | 65.9% | 19.3% | 14.8% |
| Edge | -1.7% | +0.3% | +1.3% |
Why Lyon
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.33 vs 1.16.
- Better recent form: 4 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.
Best available price on the pick: 1.44, recorded — the top price across the books in the table below, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: -5.1% per unit staked (our 65.9% × 1.44 − 1).
Lyon vs Angers match preview
Lyon is favored to win against Angers, with a 66% probability according to our model. The most likely scoreline is 2-1, occurring at a rate of 9%. Lyon's expected goals stand at 2.51, while Angers is projected to score 1.25. The model suggests a high likelihood of over 2.5 goals at 70% and both teams scoring at 65%.
In terms of recent form, Lyon has recorded two wins in their last three matches, while Angers has had a mixed performance with two losses and a win in their last five outings. Historically, Lyon has dominated their recent encounters with Angers, winning three of the last four matches and drawing once. This context adds to Lyon's confidence heading into the match.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Lyon and Angers expected goals
Total expected goals: 3.48
Lyon and Angers attack and defence ratings
Lyon
Angers
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Matchday 9 fixtures
Before and after this match
Lyon vs Angers markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Lyon | 65.9% | 1.52 | -1.7% | 1.44 |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 65.4% | 1.53 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 61.3% | 1.63 | — | — |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 85.2% | 1.17 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 39.1% | 2.56 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Lyon | 65.9% |
| Draw | 19.3% | |
| Angers | 14.8% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 65.4% |
| Under 2.5 | 34.6% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 61.3% |
| No | 38.7% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 85.2% |
| 12 (either side) | 80.7% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 34.1% | |
| Handicap -1 | Lyon win | 38.6% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 22.3% | |
| Loss | 39.1% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 2-1 | 9.7% |
| 1-1 | 9.0% | |
| 2-0 | 8.4% |
Lyon vs Angers stats
Lyon and Angers recent form
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Lyon and Angers season so far
Lyon record
- They have won 4 of their 7 league games this season, scoring 1.9 goals per match.
- They average 2.5 goals per game at home against 1.0 on the road.
- They have kept 3 clean sheets in 7 matches.
- 40% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Angers record
- They have won 2 of their 7 league games this season, scoring 1.3 goals per match.
- 55% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Lyon vs Angers head-to-head
Last 4 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-05 | Angers | Lyon | Ligue 1 | 0-0 |
| 2025-09-19 | Lyon | Angers | Ligue 1 | 1-0 |
| 2025-05-17 | Lyon | Angers | Ligue 1 | 2-0 |
| 2024-12-07 | Angers | Lyon | Ligue 1 | 0-3 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Lyon vs Angers odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 67.6%, draw 18.9%, away 13.5%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 1.44 | 5.24 | 7.70 |
| Bet365 | 1.40 | 5.00 | 6.00 |
| BetVictor | 1.36 | 4.75 | 7.00 |
| Betano | 1.42 | 5.00 | 6.80 |
| Betfair | 1.33 | 5.00 | 7.50 |
| Dafabet | 1.41 | 5.20 | 7.00 |
| Marathonbet | 1.40 | 5.10 | 7.50 |
| Pinnacle | 1.40 | 5.27 | 7.59 |
| SBO | 1.34 | 4.46 | 6.38 |
| William Hill | 1.40 | 4.60 | 6.50 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
15 snapshots recorded, from .