Marseille
vs
Toulouse
Garuda Lions Prediction: Marseille
2 – 1 Predicted score · 7% model probability
- WhyBetter recent form: 3 wins in the last 6 vs 2 for the opposition.
- RiskNo edge: the market already prices this — Marseille is the favourite, not a value bet.
Marseille vs Toulouse overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Marseille vs Toulouse
| Probability | Marseille | Draw | Toulouse |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 30.6% | 22.6% | 46.8% |
| Market | 51.0% | 24.2% | 24.8% |
| Final | 45.9% | 23.8% | 30.3% |
| Edge | -5.1% | -0.4% | +5.5% |
Why Marseille
- Better recent form: 3 wins in the last 6 vs 2 for the opposition.
Best available price on the pick: 1.91, recorded — the top price across the books in the table below, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: -12.4% per unit staked (our 45.9% × 1.91 − 1).
Marseille vs Toulouse match preview
Marseille faces Toulouse in a Ligue 1 matchup with Marseille holding a 47% probability of winning, while Toulouse has a 30% chance. The most likely scoreline predicted by the model is 2-1 in favor of Marseille, with an expected goals tally of 1.69 for Marseille and 1.92 for Toulouse. Both teams are projected to score, with a 69% likelihood of over 2.5 goals in the match.
In terms of recent form, Marseille has struggled with two wins and four losses in their last six matches, while Toulouse has shown more resilience with three wins and three draws in their last six outings. Historically, Marseille has an edge in their head-to-head encounters, winning three of the last seven matches, with Toulouse yet to secure a victory.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Marseille and Toulouse expected goals
Total expected goals: 3.49
Marseille and Toulouse attack and defence ratings
Marseille
Toulouse
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Matchday 9 fixtures
Before and after this match
Marseille vs Toulouse markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Marseille | 45.9% | 2.18 | -5.1% | 1.91 |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 66.3% | 1.51 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 66.5% | 1.50 | — | — |
| Double chance | 12 (either side) | 76.2% | 1.31 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 69.4% | 1.44 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Marseille | 45.9% |
| Draw | 23.8% | |
| Toulouse | 30.3% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 66.3% |
| Under 2.5 | 33.7% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 66.5% |
| No | 33.5% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 69.7% |
| 12 (either side) | 76.2% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 54.1% | |
| Handicap -1 | Marseille win | 14.3% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 16.3% | |
| Loss | 69.4% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 9.7% |
| 1-2 | 9.0% | |
| 2-1 | 7.1% |
Marseille vs Toulouse stats
Marseille and Toulouse recent form
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Marseille and Toulouse season so far
Marseille record
- They have won 3 of their 7 league games this season, scoring 2.0 goals per match.
- They average 2.3 goals per game at home against 1.8 on the road.
- They have converted 2 of 3 penalties (67%).
- 55% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Toulouse record
- They have won 2 of their 7 league games this season, scoring 1.7 goals per match.
- They average 2.2 goals per game on the road against 1.0 at home.
Marseille vs Toulouse head-to-head
Last 7 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-07 | Toulouse | Marseille | Ligue 1 | 0-1 |
| 2026-03-04 | Marseille | Toulouse | Coupe de France | 2-2 |
| 2025-11-29 | Marseille | Toulouse | Ligue 1 | 2-2 |
| 2025-04-06 | Marseille | Toulouse | Ligue 1 | 3-2 |
| 2024-08-31 | Toulouse | Marseille | Ligue 1 | 1-3 |
| 2024-04-21 | Toulouse | Marseille | Ligue 1 | 2-2 |
| 2023-09-17 | Marseille | Toulouse | Ligue 1 | 0-0 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Marseille vs Toulouse odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 51.0%, draw 24.2%, away 24.8%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 1.90 | 4.16 | 4.03 |
| Bet365 | 1.80 | 3.80 | 3.80 |
| BetVictor | 1.80 | 3.80 | 3.70 |
| Betano | 1.90 | 3.85 | 3.75 |
| Betfair | 1.80 | 4.00 | 3.80 |
| Dafabet | 1.87 | 3.90 | 3.85 |
| Marathonbet | 1.85 | 4.05 | 3.92 |
| Pinnacle | 1.91 | 4.04 | 3.71 |
| SBO | 1.82 | 3.49 | 3.42 |
| William Hill | 1.83 | 3.75 | 3.75 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
15 snapshots recorded, from .