Lorient
vs
Brest
Garuda Lions Prediction: Lorient
1 – 0 Predicted score · 9% model probability
- WhyBetter recent form: 3 wins in the last 6 vs 2 for the opposition.
- RiskNo edge: the market already prices this — Lorient is the favourite, not a value bet.
Lorient vs Brest overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Lorient vs Brest
| Probability | Lorient | Draw | Brest |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 37.3% | 26.4% | 36.3% |
| Market | 38.3% | 28.1% | 33.6% |
| Final | 38.0% | 27.6% | 34.3% |
| Edge | -0.2% | -0.4% | +0.7% |
Why Lorient
- Better recent form: 3 wins in the last 6 vs 2 for the opposition.
Best available price on the pick: 2.61, recorded — the top price across the books in the table below, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: -0.7% per unit staked (our 38.0% × 2.61 − 1).
Lorient vs Brest match preview
Lorient will face Brest in an intriguing Ligue 1 matchup, with Lorient holding a 38% probability of winning, while Brest sits at 34%. The most likely scoreline predicted by our model is 1-0 in favor of Lorient, with an expected goals tally of 1.44 for Lorient and 1.34 for Brest. Both teams have shown mixed recent form, with Lorient recording two wins in their last five matches and Brest managing two wins as well, but with a more inconsistent pattern.
Historically, Brest has had the upper hand in their recent encounters, winning three of the last four matches against Lorient, with one draw. The probability of over 2.5 goals stands at 51%, and there is a 55% chance that both teams will score in this fixture, indicating a potentially competitive match ahead.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Lorient and Brest expected goals
Total expected goals: 2.78
Lorient and Brest attack and defence ratings
Lorient
Brest
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Matchday 9 fixtures
Before and after this match
Lorient vs Brest markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Lorient | 38.0% | 2.63 | -0.2% | 2.61 |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 50.8% | 1.97 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 55.3% | 1.81 | — | — |
| Double chance | 12 (either side) | 72.4% | 1.38 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 62.7% | 1.60 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Lorient | 38.0% |
| Draw | 27.6% | |
| Brest | 34.3% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 50.8% |
| Under 2.5 | 49.2% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 55.3% |
| No | 44.7% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 65.7% |
| 12 (either side) | 72.4% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 62.0% | |
| Handicap -1 | Lorient win | 17.2% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 20.1% | |
| Loss | 62.7% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 12.5% |
| 1-0 | 8.8% | |
| 0-1 | 8.7% |
Lorient vs Brest stats
Lorient and Brest recent form
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Lorient and Brest season so far
Lorient record
- They have won 3 of their 7 league games this season, scoring 1.0 goals per match.
- They average 1.2 goals per game at home against 0.7 on the road.
- They have kept 4 clean sheets in 7 matches.
Brest record
- They have won 2 of their 7 league games this season, scoring 1.9 goals per match.
- They average 2.3 goals per game at home against 1.5 on the road.
Lorient vs Brest head-to-head
Last 4 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-02-08 | Brest | Lorient | Ligue 1 | 2-0 |
| 2025-10-19 | Lorient | Brest | Ligue 1 | 3-3 |
| 2024-03-31 | Lorient | Brest | Ligue 1 | 0-1 |
| 2023-12-20 | Brest | Lorient | Ligue 1 | 4-0 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Lorient vs Brest odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 38.3%, draw 28.1%, away 33.6%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 2.61 | 3.53 | 2.87 |
| Bet365 | 2.45 | 3.20 | 2.80 |
| BetVictor | 2.38 | 3.30 | 2.75 |
| Betano | 2.47 | 3.35 | 2.87 |
| Betfair | 2.45 | 3.40 | 2.63 |
| Dafabet | 2.46 | 3.35 | 2.90 |
| Marathonbet | 2.54 | 3.44 | 2.79 |
| Pinnacle | 2.51 | 3.43 | 2.91 |
| SBO | 2.30 | 3.09 | 2.69 |
| William Hill | 2.40 | 3.30 | 2.75 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
15 snapshots recorded, from .