Brest
vs
Lyon
Garuda Lions Prediction: Lyon
1 – 2 Predicted score · 7% model probability
- WhyBetter recent form: 3 wins in the last 6 vs 2 for the opposition.
- RiskNo edge: the market already prices this — Lyon is the favourite, not a value bet.
Brest vs Lyon overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Brest vs Lyon
| Probability | Brest | Draw | Lyon |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 50.4% | 23.2% | 26.4% |
| Market | 32.7% | 26.2% | 41.1% |
| Final | 37.2% | 25.4% | 37.4% |
| Edge | +4.4% | -0.8% | -3.7% |
Why Lyon
- Better recent form: 3 wins in the last 6 vs 2 for the opposition.
Best available price on the pick: 2.57, recorded — the top price across the books in the table below, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: -3.9% per unit staked (our 37.4% × 2.57 − 1).
Brest vs Lyon match preview
Brest faces Lyon in what promises to be a competitive Ligue 1 clash. According to our model, both teams have a 37% probability of winning, with a 25% chance of a draw. The expected goals are 1.76 for Brest and 1.34 for Lyon, indicating a slight advantage for the home side. The most likely scoreline is 1-2, with a 7% probability.
Recent form shows Brest with two wins in their last five matches, while Lyon has also experienced mixed results, winning three out of their last six. In their last six encounters, Brest has secured two victories, Lyon three, and there has been one draw. Both teams are predicted to score, with a 61% probability for over 2.5 goals as well.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Brest and Lyon expected goals
Total expected goals: 2.90
Brest and Lyon attack and defence ratings
Brest
Lyon
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Matchday 10 fixtures
Before and after this match
Brest vs Lyon markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Lyon | 37.4% | 2.67 | -3.7% | 2.57 |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 61.0% | 1.64 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 61.5% | 1.63 | — | — |
| Double chance | 12 (either side) | 74.6% | 1.34 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 74.9% | 1.34 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Brest | 37.2% |
| Draw | 25.4% | |
| Lyon | 37.4% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 61.0% |
| Under 2.5 | 39.0% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 61.5% |
| No | 38.5% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 62.6% |
| 12 (either side) | 74.6% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 62.8% | |
| Handicap -1 | Lyon win | 9.8% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 15.3% | |
| Loss | 74.9% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 10.5% |
| 2-1 | 9.6% | |
| 1-0 | 7.7% |
Brest vs Lyon stats
Brest and Lyon recent form
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Brest and Lyon season so far
Brest record
- They have won 2 of their 8 league games this season, scoring 1.8 goals per match.
- They average 2.0 goals per game at home against 1.5 on the road.
- They have converted 2 of 3 penalties (67%).
Lyon record
- They have won 4 of their 8 league games this season, scoring 1.6 goals per match.
- They average 2.5 goals per game at home against 0.8 on the road.
- They have kept 3 clean sheets in 8 matches.
- 36% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Brest vs Lyon head-to-head
Last 6 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-01-18 | Lyon | Brest | Ligue 1 | 2-1 |
| 2025-11-02 | Brest | Lyon | Ligue 1 | 0-0 |
| 2025-03-02 | Lyon | Brest | Ligue 1 | 2-1 |
| 2025-01-11 | Brest | Lyon | Ligue 1 | 2-1 |
| 2024-04-14 | Lyon | Brest | Ligue 1 | 4-3 |
| 2023-09-23 | Brest | Lyon | Ligue 1 | 1-0 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Brest vs Lyon odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 34.1%, draw 27.5%, away 38.4%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 2.92 | 3.68 | 2.50 |
| Bet365 | 2.75 | 3.40 | 2.50 |
| BetVictor | 2.70 | 3.30 | 2.38 |
| Betano | 2.80 | 3.40 | 2.50 |
| Betfair | 2.80 | 3.60 | 2.45 |
| Dafabet | 2.80 | 3.50 | 2.50 |
| Marathonbet | 2.84 | 3.58 | 2.43 |
| Pinnacle | 2.77 | 3.58 | 2.57 |
| SBO | 2.66 | 3.09 | 2.32 |
| William Hill | 2.70 | 3.30 | 2.38 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
24 snapshots recorded, from .