Toulouse
vs
Strasbourg
Garuda Lions Prediction: Toulouse
2 – 1 Predicted score · 10% model probability
- WhyHigher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.78 vs 1.35.
- RiskNo edge: the market already prices this — Toulouse is the favourite, not a value bet.
Toulouse vs Strasbourg overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Toulouse vs Strasbourg
| Probability | Toulouse | Draw | Strasbourg |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 50.3% | 23.1% | 26.6% |
| Market | 46.2% | 25.0% | 28.8% |
| Final | 47.2% | 24.5% | 28.3% |
| Edge | +1.0% | -0.5% | -0.6% |
Why Toulouse
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.78 vs 1.35.
- Better recent form: 2 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.
Best available price on the pick: 2.24, recorded — the top price across the books in the table below, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: +5.7% per unit staked (our 47.2% × 2.24 − 1).
Toulouse vs Strasbourg match preview
Toulouse faces Strasbourg in a Ligue 1 matchup with Toulouse holding a 47% probability of winning compared to Strasbourg's 28%. The most likely scoreline predicted by our model is 2-1, occurring with a 10% probability. The expected goals for Toulouse stand at 1.78, while Strasbourg is projected at 1.35.
In terms of recent form, Toulouse has recorded one win, two draws, and two losses in their last five matches, while Strasbourg has struggled with one win and four losses in the same timeframe. Historically, in their last ten encounters, Toulouse has secured three wins, two draws, and Strasbourg has achieved five victories. The model indicates a 61% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 62% probability that both teams will score.
Toulouse and Strasbourg team news
Toulouse news
- A. Donnum — yellow cards
- M. Niflore — knee injury
- R. Messali — thigh injury
Strasbourg news
- F. Balde — leg injury
- J. Panichelli — knee injury
Reported injuries and suspensions from our data provider. Confirmed line-ups appear ~40 minutes before kickoff.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Toulouse and Strasbourg expected goals
Total expected goals: 3.13
Toulouse and Strasbourg attack and defence ratings
Toulouse
Strasbourg
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Matchday 10 fixtures
Before and after this match
Toulouse vs Strasbourg markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Toulouse | 47.2% | 2.12 | +1.0% | 2.24 |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 61.3% | 1.63 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 61.8% | 1.62 | — | — |
| Double chance | 12 (either side) | 75.5% | 1.32 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 54.6% | 1.83 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Toulouse | 47.2% |
| Draw | 24.5% | |
| Strasbourg | 28.3% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 61.3% |
| Under 2.5 | 38.7% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 61.8% |
| No | 38.2% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 71.7% |
| 12 (either side) | 75.5% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 52.8% | |
| Handicap -1 | Toulouse win | 24.0% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 21.3% | |
| Loss | 54.6% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 10.5% |
| 2-1 | 9.5% | |
| 1-0 | 7.6% |
Toulouse vs Strasbourg stats
Toulouse and Strasbourg recent form
| Toulouse |
LDWDWD |
| Strasbourg |
WLLLLD |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Toulouse and Strasbourg season so far
Toulouse record
- They have won 2 of their 9 league games this season, scoring 1.3 goals per match.
- They average 1.8 goals per game on the road against 0.8 at home.
- They have failed to score in 4 of 9 matches.
- 45% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Strasbourg record
- They have won 3 of their 9 league games this season, scoring 1.9 goals per match.
- They average 2.2 goals per game at home against 1.6 on the road.
- 33% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Toulouse vs Strasbourg head-to-head
Last 10 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-03 | Strasbourg | Toulouse | Ligue 1 | 1-2 |
| 2025-12-06 | Toulouse | Strasbourg | Ligue 1 | 1-0 |
| 2025-03-16 | Strasbourg | Toulouse | Ligue 1 | 2-1 |
| 2025-01-12 | Toulouse | Strasbourg | Ligue 1 | 1-2 |
| 2024-04-07 | Toulouse | Strasbourg | Ligue 1 | 0-0 |
| 2023-08-27 | Strasbourg | Toulouse | Ligue 1 | 2-0 |
| 2023-01-29 | Strasbourg | Toulouse | Ligue 1 | 1-2 |
| 2022-10-23 | Toulouse | Strasbourg | Ligue 1 | 2-2 |
| 2020-02-05 | Toulouse | Strasbourg | Ligue 1 | 0-1 |
| 2019-12-07 | Strasbourg | Toulouse | Ligue 1 | 4-2 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Toulouse vs Strasbourg odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 43.7%, draw 25.8%, away 30.4%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 2.24 | 3.86 | 3.23 |
| Bet365 | 2.15 | 3.70 | 3.10 |
| BetVictor | 2.15 | 3.70 | 3.13 |
| Betano | 2.20 | 3.70 | 3.05 |
| Betfair | 2.15 | 3.60 | 3.25 |
| Dafabet | 2.22 | 3.70 | 3.15 |
| Marathonbet | 2.20 | 3.80 | 3.18 |
| Pinnacle | 2.23 | 3.71 | 3.25 |
| SBO | 2.17 | 3.41 | 2.98 |
| William Hill | 2.15 | 3.50 | 3.00 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
24 snapshots recorded, from .