Paris Saint Germain
vs
Lyon
Garuda Lions Prediction: Paris Saint Germain
2 – 1 Predicted score · 8% model probability
- WhyHigher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.79 vs 1.54.
- RiskNo edge: the market already prices this — Paris Saint Germain is the favourite, not a value bet.
Paris Saint Germain vs Lyon overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Paris Saint Germain vs Lyon
| Probability | Paris Saint Germain | Draw | Lyon |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 61.1% | 18.0% | 20.9% |
| Market | 66.9% | 18.2% | 14.9% |
| Final | 65.4% | 18.2% | 16.4% |
| Edge | -1.4% | -0.0% | +1.5% |
Why Paris Saint Germain
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.79 vs 1.54.
- Better recent form: 6 wins in the last 6 vs 4 for the opposition.
Best available price on the pick: 1.47, recorded — the top price across the books in the table below, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: -3.8% per unit staked (our 65.4% × 1.47 − 1).
Paris Saint Germain vs Lyon match preview
Paris Saint Germain enters this match against Lyon with a strong recent form, boasting six consecutive wins. Their expected goals stand at 2.79, indicating a potent attacking threat, while Lyon has an expected goals figure of 1.54. The model suggests a high likelihood of goals, with 79% probability for over 2.5 goals and 73% for both teams to score.
Historically, Paris Saint Germain has dominated this fixture, winning five of the last six encounters, with Lyon securing just one victory. The model gives Paris Saint Germain a 64% chance of winning, while Lyon's chances are pegged at 17%. The most likely scoreline predicted is 2-1 in favor of Paris Saint Germain, with a confidence grade of B.
Paris Saint Germain and Lyon team news
Paris Saint Germain news
- A. Longoni — injury
- K. Kvaratskhelia — knee injury
- Marquinhos — thigh injury
- N. Mendes — muscle injury
- O. Dembele — thigh injury
Lyon news
- A. Hamdani — inactive
- L. Openda — leg injury
- M. Ouedraogo — knee injury
- N. Tagliafico — muscle injury
- P. Sulc — knee injury
Reported injuries and suspensions from our data provider. Confirmed line-ups appear ~40 minutes before kickoff.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Paris Saint Germain and Lyon expected goals
Total expected goals: 4.33
Paris Saint Germain and Lyon attack and defence ratings
Paris Saint Germain
Lyon
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Matchday 8 fixtures
Before and after this match
Paris Saint Germain vs Lyon markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Paris Saint Germain | 65.4% | 1.53 | -1.4% | 1.47 |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 78.8% | 1.27 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 73.2% | 1.37 | — | — |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 83.6% | 1.20 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Paris Saint Germain win | 41.1% | 2.43 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Paris Saint Germain | 65.4% |
| Draw | 18.2% | |
| Lyon | 16.4% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 78.8% |
| Under 2.5 | 21.2% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 73.2% |
| No | 26.8% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 83.6% |
| 12 (either side) | 81.8% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 34.6% | |
| Handicap -1 | Paris Saint Germain win | 41.1% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 20.0% | |
| Loss | 38.9% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 2-1 | 8.2% |
| 3-1 | 7.2% | |
| 1-1 | 6.3% |
Paris Saint Germain vs Lyon stats
Paris Saint Germain and Lyon recent form
| Paris Saint Germain |
WWWWWW |
| Lyon |
LWWLWW |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Paris Saint Germain and Lyon season so far
Paris Saint Germain record
- They have won 3 of their 6 league games this season, scoring 1.8 goals per match.
Lyon record
- They have won 3 of their 6 league games this season, scoring 1.8 goals per match.
- They average 2.7 goals per game at home against 1.0 on the road.
- They have kept 3 clean sheets in 6 matches.
- 40% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Paris Saint Germain vs Lyon head-to-head
Last 6 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-19 | Paris Saint Germain | Lyon | Ligue 1 | 1-2 |
| 2025-11-09 | Lyon | Paris Saint Germain | Ligue 1 | 2-3 |
| 2025-02-23 | Lyon | Paris Saint Germain | Ligue 1 | 2-3 |
| 2024-12-15 | Paris Saint Germain | Lyon | Ligue 1 | 3-1 |
| 2024-04-21 | Paris Saint Germain | Lyon | Ligue 1 | 4-1 |
| 2023-09-03 | Lyon | Paris Saint Germain | Ligue 1 | 1-4 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Paris Saint Germain vs Lyon odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 66.8%, draw 18.3%, away 14.9%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 1.47 | 5.29 | 6.88 |
| Bet365 | 1.42 | 5.25 | 6.00 |
| BetVictor | 1.40 | 4.80 | 6.00 |
| Betano | 1.44 | 5.10 | 6.40 |
| Betfair | 1.40 | 5.50 | 6.50 |
| Dafabet | 1.44 | 5.40 | 6.40 |
| Marathonbet | 1.43 | 5.15 | 6.70 |
| Pinnacle | 1.43 | 5.54 | 6.40 |
| SBO | 1.39 | 4.48 | 5.42 |
| William Hill | 1.40 | 4.80 | 6.00 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
25 snapshots recorded, from .