Hoffenheim
vs
Lyon
Garuda Lions Prediction: Hoffenheim
2 β 1 Predicted score Β· 8% model probability
Hoffenheim vs Lyon overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Hoffenheim vs Lyon
| Probability | Hoffenheim | Draw | Lyon |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 41.8% | 23.1% | 35.1% |
| Market | β | β | β |
| Final | 41.8% | 23.1% | 35.1% |
| Edge | β | β | β |
Hoffenheim vs Lyon match preview
Hoffenheim faces Lyon in the UEFA Europa League with a probability of 42% for a home win, while Lyon has a 35% chance of winning and a 23% likelihood of a draw. The most likely scoreline predicted by our model is 2-1 in favor of Hoffenheim, with an 8% chance of occurring. Both teams are expected to score, and there is a 72% probability of over 2.5 goals in the match.
In terms of recent form, Hoffenheim has recorded two wins and three losses in their last five matches, while Lyon has achieved three wins, two draws, and one loss in the same timeframe. The expected goals for Hoffenheim stand at 1.95, while Lyon is projected to have 1.78 expected goals. The confidence grade for this match is rated as A.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Hoffenheim and Lyon expected goals
Total expected goals: 3.72
Hoffenheim and Lyon attack and defence ratings
Hoffenheim
Lyon
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
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Before and after this match
Hoffenheim vs Lyon markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Hoffenheim | 41.8% | 2.39 | β | β |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 71.9% | 1.39 | β | β |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 72.1% | 1.39 | β | β |
| Double chance | 12 (either side) | 76.9% | 1.30 | β | β |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 58.2% | 1.72 | β | β |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Hoffenheim | 41.8% |
| Draw | 23.1% | |
| Lyon | 35.1% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 71.9% |
| Under 2.5 | 28.1% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 72.1% |
| No | 27.9% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 64.9% |
| 12 (either side) | 76.9% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 58.2% | |
| Handicap -1 | Hoffenheim win | 23.5% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 18.3% | |
| Loss | 58.2% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 9.2% |
| 2-1 | 8.1% | |
| 1-2 | 7.4% |
Hoffenheim vs Lyon stats
Hoffenheim and Lyon recent form
| Hoffenheim |
LLWLLW |
| Lyon |
WWDWDL |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.