Borussia M.Gladbach
vs
Hoffenheim
Garuda Lions Prediction: Hoffenheim
1 β 2 Predicted score Β· 8% model probability
Borussia M.Gladbach vs Hoffenheim overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Borussia M.Gladbach vs Hoffenheim
| Probability | Borussia M.Gladbach | Draw | Hoffenheim |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 37.7% | 24.6% | 37.7% |
| Market | 30.6% | 23.5% | 45.9% |
| Final | 32.4% | 23.8% | 43.9% |
| Edge | +7.2% | +1.0% | -8.2% |
Best available price on the pick: 2.15, recorded β the top price across the books in the table below, each at its own last update.
Borussia M.Gladbach vs Hoffenheim match preview
Borussia M.Gladbach faces Hoffenheim in a Bundesliga clash on October 18, 2026. According to our model, Borussia M.Gladbach has a 31% probability of winning, while Hoffenheim is favored with a 46% chance. The most likely scoreline is 1-2 in favor of Hoffenheim, with an 8% probability. Both teams are expected to contribute to an entertaining match, as our model suggests a 70% likelihood of over 2.5 goals and a 72% chance of both teams scoring.
Recent form shows Borussia M.Gladbach struggling with five consecutive losses before a recent win, while Hoffenheim has had mixed results, including two losses followed by a win and then another loss. In their last six encounters, Borussia M.Gladbach has won three times, Hoffenheim has won twice, and there has been one draw. The expected goals for this match are 1.99 for Borussia M.Gladbach and 1.84 for Hoffenheim, indicating a closely contested game.
Borussia M.Gladbach and Hoffenheim team news
Borussia M.Gladbach news
- E. Leopold β knee injury
- F. Fleck β muscle injury
- F. Honorat β muscle injury
- J. Castrop β shoulder injury
- J. Leszczynski β knee injury
- K. Itakura β ankle injury
- N. Kuhn β muscle injury
- T. Kleindienst β muscle injury
Hoffenheim news
- A. Hajdari β foot injury
- Bernardo β suspended
- P. Wimmer β thigh injury
Reported injuries and suspensions from our data provider. Confirmed line-ups appear ~40 minutes before kickoff.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Borussia M.Gladbach and Hoffenheim expected goals
Total expected goals: 4.00
Borussia M.Gladbach and Hoffenheim attack and defence ratings
Borussia M.Gladbach
Hoffenheim
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
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- SV Elversberg v Augsburg β match page
- Bayern Munich vs RasenBallsport Leipzig β team news & stats
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Before and after this match
Borussia M.Gladbach vs Hoffenheim markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Hoffenheim | 43.9% | 2.28 | -8.2% | 2.15 |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 73.0% | 1.37 | β | β |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 73.8% | 1.35 | β | β |
| Double chance | 12 (either side) | 76.2% | 1.31 | β | β |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 62.3% | 1.61 | β | β |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Borussia M.Gladbach | 32.4% |
| Draw | 23.8% | |
| Hoffenheim | 43.9% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 73.0% |
| Under 2.5 | 27.0% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 73.8% |
| No | 26.2% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 56.1% |
| 12 (either side) | 76.2% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 67.6% | |
| Handicap -1 | Hoffenheim win | 21.1% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 16.6% | |
| Loss | 62.3% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 9.7% |
| 2-1 | 7.7% | |
| 1-2 | 7.7% |
Borussia M.Gladbach vs Hoffenheim stats
Borussia M.Gladbach and Hoffenheim recent form
| Borussia M.Gladbach |
LLLLLW |
| Hoffenheim |
LLLLWL |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Borussia M.Gladbach and Hoffenheim season so far
Borussia M.Gladbach record
- They have won 0 of their 5 league games this season, scoring 1.4 goals per match.
- 50% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Hoffenheim record
- They have won 1 of their 5 league games this season, scoring 1.8 goals per match.
- 36% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Borussia M.Gladbach vs Hoffenheim head-to-head
Last 10 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-16 | Borussia M.Gladbach | Hoffenheim | Bundesliga | 4-0 |
| 2026-01-14 | Hoffenheim | Borussia M.Gladbach | Bundesliga | 5-1 |
| 2025-05-03 | Borussia M.Gladbach | Hoffenheim | Bundesliga | 4-4 |
| 2024-12-21 | Hoffenheim | Borussia M.Gladbach | Bundesliga | 1-2 |
| 2024-04-20 | Hoffenheim | Borussia M.Gladbach | Bundesliga | 4-3 |
| 2023-12-02 | Borussia M.Gladbach | Hoffenheim | Bundesliga | 2-1 |
| 2023-01-28 | Hoffenheim | Borussia M.Gladbach | Bundesliga | 1-4 |
| 2022-08-06 | Borussia M.Gladbach | Hoffenheim | Bundesliga | 3-1 |
| 2022-05-14 | Borussia M.Gladbach | Hoffenheim | Bundesliga | 5-1 |
| 2021-12-18 | Hoffenheim | Borussia M.Gladbach | Bundesliga | 1-1 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Borussia M.Gladbach vs Hoffenheim odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 30.6%, draw 23.7%, away 45.8%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 3.20 | 4.21 | 2.15 |
| Bet365 | 3.10 | 4.00 | 2.05 |
| BetVictor | 2.90 | 3.90 | 2.00 |
| Betano | 3.10 | 3.95 | 2.12 |
| Betfair | 3.00 | 4.20 | 2.05 |
| Dafabet | 3.10 | 4.00 | 2.12 |
| Marathonbet | 3.12 | 4.10 | 2.09 |
| Pinnacle | 3.13 | 4.08 | 2.13 |
| SBO | 2.78 | 3.53 | 2.05 |
| William Hill | 3.00 | 3.90 | 2.05 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
18 snapshots recorded, from .