Bundesliga
·
Full time
·Matchday 6
Hamburger SV
vs
VfB Stuttgart
1 – 0 Full time
| 54′ | Warmed Omari | ||
| 61′ | Yussuf PoulsenOtto Emerson Stange | ||
| 67′ | Bilal El KhannoussChris Führich | ||
| 67′ | Atakan KarazorGrischa Prömel | ||
| 77′ | Jamie LewelingLeo Sauer | ||
| 77′ | Ermedin DemirovićDženan Pejčinović | ||
| 78′ | Louis Pepe LemkeZakaria El Ouahdi | ||
| 78′ | Fábio VieiraTerem Moffi | ||
| 78′ | Martin AdelineAlbert Grönbaek | ||
| 82′ | Nicolás Capaldo | ||
| 84′ | Bilal NadirKofi Jeremy Amoako | ||
| 85′ | Otto Emerson Stange | ||
| 88′ | Miro Muheim | ||
| 89′ | Ramon HendriksLorenz Assignon |
Hamburger SV
24%
Draw
23%
VfB Stuttgart
53%
Match stats
| 14 | Shots | 24 |
|---|---|---|
| 3 | Shots on target | 5 |
| 34 | Possession % | 66 |
| 5 | Corners | 9 |
| 12 | Fouls | 9 |
| 5 | Saves | 2 |
| 240 | Accurate passes | 573 |
Hamburger SV vs VfB Stuttgart overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Hamburger SV vs VfB Stuttgart
| Probability | Hamburger SV | Draw | VfB Stuttgart |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 27.1% | 23.9% | 49.0% |
| Market | 23.3% | 22.9% | 53.8% |
| Final | 24.3% | 23.1% | 52.6% |
| Edge | +3.8% | +1.0% | -4.9% |
Why VfB Stuttgart
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.16 vs 1.78.
- Better recent form: 4 wins in the last 6 vs 3 for the opposition.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
1+ goals
96%
2+ goals
91%
3+ goals
72%
No goals
4%
Hamburger SV and VfB Stuttgart expected goals
Hamburger SV
1.78
VfB Stuttgart
2.16
Total expected goals: 3.94
Hamburger SV and VfB Stuttgart attack and defence ratings
Hamburger SV
Attack
0.85 -15%
Defence
1.15 +15%
VfB Stuttgart
Attack
1.29 +29%
Defence
1.13 +13%
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Hamburger SV vs VfB Stuttgart: result vs prediction
Hamburger SV 1 – 0 VfB Stuttgart
| Market | Outcome |
|---|---|
| 1X2 pick | ✗ Incorrect |
| Over/Under 2.5 pick | ✗ Incorrect |
| BTTS pick | ✗ Incorrect |
Other Matchday 6 fixtures
- Eintracht Frankfurt vs FC Cologne
- Werder Bremen vs SC Paderborn 07
- FC Schalke 04 v Mainz 05 — match page
- Union Berlin vs Borussia Dortmund
- SV Elversberg v Augsburg — match page
- Bayern Munich vs RasenBallsport Leipzig — team news & stats
- Bayer Leverkusen vs Freiburg — team news & stats
- Borussia M.Gladbach v Hoffenheim — match page
Before and after this match
Hamburger SV vs VfB Stuttgart markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | VfB Stuttgart | 52.6% | 1.90 | -4.9% | — |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 72.5% | 1.38 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 72.2% | 1.38 | — | — |
| Double chance | 12 (either side) | 76.9% | 1.30 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 51.0% | 1.96 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Hamburger SV | 24.3% |
| Draw | 23.1% | |
| VfB Stuttgart | 52.6% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 72.5% |
| Under 2.5 | 27.5% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 72.2% |
| No | 27.8% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 47.4% |
| 12 (either side) | 76.9% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 75.7% | |
| Handicap -1 | VfB Stuttgart win | 30.1% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 18.8% | |
| Loss | 51.0% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 9.7% |
| 1-2 | 8.7% | |
| 2-2 | 7.0% |
Hamburger SV vs VfB Stuttgart stats
Hamburger SV and VfB Stuttgart recent form
| Hamburger SV |
WWLLLW |
| VfB Stuttgart |
WWLLWW |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Hamburger SV and VfB Stuttgart going into this match
Hamburger SV record
- They have won 2 of their 5 league games this season, scoring 1.0 goals per match.
- They have failed to score in 3 of 5 matches.
VfB Stuttgart record
- They have won 2 of their 5 league games this season, scoring 1.6 goals per match.
Hamburger SV vs VfB Stuttgart head-to-head
Last 10 meetings
3Hamburger SV wins
1Draws
6VfB Stuttgart wins
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-12 | VfB Stuttgart | Hamburger SV | Bundesliga | 4-0 |
| 2025-11-30 | Hamburger SV | VfB Stuttgart | Bundesliga | 2-1 |
| 2023-06-05 | Hamburger SV | VfB Stuttgart | Bundesliga | 1-3 |
| 2023-06-01 | VfB Stuttgart | Hamburger SV | Bundesliga | 3-0 |
| 2020-08-26 | VfB Stuttgart | Hamburger SV | Friendlies Clubs | 3-2 |
| 2020-05-28 | VfB Stuttgart | Hamburger SV | 2. Bundesliga | 3-2 |
| 2019-10-29 | Hamburger SV | VfB Stuttgart | DFB Pokal | 1-2 |
| 2019-10-26 | Hamburger SV | VfB Stuttgart | 2. Bundesliga | 6-2 |
| 2018-03-31 | VfB Stuttgart | Hamburger SV | Bundesliga | 1-1 |
| 2017-11-04 | Hamburger SV | VfB Stuttgart | Bundesliga | 3-1 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Hamburger SV vs VfB Stuttgart odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 24.0%, draw 22.9%, away 53.1%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 4.45 | 4.11 | 1.83 |
| Bet365 | 3.90 | 4.20 | 1.75 |
| BetVictor | 3.90 | 4.20 | 1.75 |
| Betano | 3.95 | 4.05 | 1.82 |
| Betfair | 4.00 | 4.20 | 1.80 |
| Dafabet | 3.90 | 4.20 | 1.84 |
| Marathonbet | 4.33 | 4.00 | 1.78 |
| Pinnacle | 4.15 | 4.20 | 1.79 |
| SBO | 3.34 | 3.68 | 1.80 |
| William Hill | 4.00 | 3.80 | 1.75 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
1
4.08 ▼ -0.12
X
4.16 ▼ -0.04
2
1.77 ▲ +0.07
53 snapshots recorded, from .