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Bundesliga · Full time ·Matchday 6

SV Elversberg vs Augsburg

4 – 3 Full time

4′Lukas Petkov
7′Lasse Günther
28′Maximilian Rohr
30′Han-Noah Massengo
30′Rodrigo Ribeiro
40′Jan GyamerahLuca Sirch
40′Noah DarvichFrederik Schmahl
45′Fabian Rieder
45′Marius WolfAnton Kade
45′Rodrigo RibeiroMichael Gregoritsch
45′Juma BahJeffrey Gouweleeuw
52′Chrislain Matsima
54′Felix Keidel
74′Arijon IbrahimovicMert Kömür
74′Robin FellhauerSeol Young-woo
75′Lukas Pinckert
76′Michael Gregoritsch
77′David MokwaNoel Futkeu
78′Maurice KrattenmacherRaif Adam
84′Nicolas Kristof
89′Frederik Schmahl
90′Mert Kömür
90′Felix KeidelAmara Condé
90′Frederik Schmahl

Ursapharm-Arena an der Kaiserlinde, Spiesen-ElversbergReferee: Florian Exner

SV Elversberg 43%
Draw 25%
Augsburg 33%

Confidence: Medium  ·  blended with market odds

Match stats

19 Shots 29
8 Shots on target 8
40 Possession % 60
4 Corners 12
16 Fouls 14
3 Offsides 2
5 Saves 4
252 Accurate passes 379

SV Elversberg vs Augsburg overview

Garuda Lions analysis: SV Elversberg vs Augsburg

model vs market on the 1X2
ProbabilitySV ElversbergDrawAugsburg
Model54.8%22.6%22.6%
Market38.5%25.6%35.9%
Final42.6%24.9%32.5%
Edge+16.2%-2.9%-13.3%

Confidence: Medium

Why SV Elversberg

  • Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.59 vs 1.49.
  • The market prices SV Elversberg below the model: +16.2 percentage points of edge.

Scoreline probability

model grid

Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.

SV Elversberg ↓ / Augsburg → 0 1 2 3 4+ 0 1 9% 6% 2 6% 9% 7% 3 5% 7% 5% 4+ 5% 7% 5%

Goal probability

Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.

1+ goals 96%
2+ goals 91%
3+ goals 73%
No goals 4%

SV Elversberg and Augsburg expected goals

SV Elversberg 2.59
Augsburg 1.49

Total expected goals: 4.08

SV Elversberg and Augsburg attack and defence ratings

SV Elversberg

Attack 1.12 +12%
Defence 0.90 -10%

Augsburg

Attack 1.14 +14%
Defence 1.25 +25%

Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.

SV Elversberg vs Augsburg: result vs prediction

SV Elversberg 4 – 3 Augsburg

MarketOutcome
1X2 pick✓ Correct
Over/Under 2.5 pick✓ Correct
BTTS pick✓ Correct

Other Matchday 6 fixtures

Bundesliga

Before and after this match

SV Elversberg vs Augsburg markets

Best value

the model's strongest selection per market
MarketModel pickProbabilityFair oddsEdgeBest price
1X2 SV Elversberg 42.6% 2.35 +16.2% —
Over/Under 2.5 Over 2.5 73.5% 1.36 — —
Both teams to score Yes 71.5% 1.40 — —
Double chance 12 (either side) 75.1% 1.33 — —
Handicap -1 Loss 45.2% 2.21 — —

Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.

All probabilities

all probabilities from one model grid
MarketSelectionProbability
1X2SV Elversberg42.6%
Draw24.9%
Augsburg32.5%
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.573.5%
Under 2.526.5%
Both teams to scoreYes71.5%
No28.5%
Double chance1X (home or draw)67.5%
12 (either side)75.1%
X2 (draw or away)57.4%
Handicap -1SV Elversberg win35.4%
Push (exactly one goal)19.3%
Loss45.2%
Correct score (top 3)1-19.1%
2-18.9%
3-16.9%

SV Elversberg vs Augsburg stats

SV Elversberg and Augsburg recent form

newest first
SV Elversberg LDLWWW
Augsburg DLDWWW

W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.

SV Elversberg and Augsburg going into this match

league record before kick-off

SV Elversberg record

  • They have won 2 of their 5 league games this season, scoring 1.6 goals per match.

Augsburg record

  • They have won 2 of their 5 league games this season, scoring 2.6 goals per match.

SV Elversberg vs Augsburg head-to-head

Last 1 meetings

0SV Elversberg wins 0Draws 1Augsburg wins
DateHomeAwayCompetitionScore
2015-08-07SV ElversbergAugsburgDFB Pokal1-3

League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.

SV Elversberg vs Augsburg odds

Odds comparison

latest snapshot per book

Median de-vigged market: home 38.7%, draw 25.2%, away 36.1%.

Bookmaker1X2
1xBet 2.54 3.82 2.78
Bet365 2.50 3.75 2.60
BetVictor 2.40 3.80 2.60
Betano 2.40 3.80 2.72
Betfair 2.45 4.00 2.60
Dafabet 2.50 3.85 2.65
Marathonbet 2.47 3.72 2.71
Pinnacle 2.49 3.72 2.76
SBO 2.32 3.50 2.43
William Hill 2.40 3.60 2.62

Odds movement

Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.

1 2.48 ▼ -0.27
X 3.74 ▲ +0.04
2 2.67 ▲ +0.37

53 snapshots recorded, from .