Augsburg
vs
Union Berlin
Garuda Lions Prediction: Augsburg
2 – 1 Predicted score · 7% model probability
Augsburg vs Union Berlin overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Augsburg vs Union Berlin
| Probability | Augsburg | Draw | Union Berlin |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 52.7% | 21.0% | 26.3% |
| Market | 50.2% | 24.3% | 25.5% |
| Final | 50.8% | 23.5% | 25.7% |
| Edge | +2.5% | -3.3% | +0.8% |
Why Augsburg
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.84 vs 1.83.
- Better recent form: 2 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.
- The market prices Augsburg below the model: +2.5 percentage points of edge.
Best available price on the pick: 1.96, recorded — the top price across the books in the table below, each at its own last update.
Augsburg vs Union Berlin match preview
Augsburg hosts Union Berlin in a Bundesliga clash on October 24, 2026, with Augsburg holding a 51% probability of winning, compared to Union Berlin's 26%. The most likely scoreline predicted by the model is 2-1, with an 81% chance of over 2.5 goals being scored and a 79% likelihood that both teams will find the net. Expected goals suggest Augsburg will generate 2.84, while Union Berlin is forecasted to score 1.83.
In terms of recent form, Augsburg has recorded two wins, two draws, and a loss in their last five matches, while Union Berlin has struggled with one win, two losses, and two draws in the same period. The head-to-head record over the last six encounters shows a balanced competition, with each team securing two wins and two draws.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Augsburg and Union Berlin expected goals
Total expected goals: 4.67
Augsburg and Union Berlin attack and defence ratings
Augsburg
Union Berlin
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Matchday 7 fixtures
Before and after this match
Augsburg vs Union Berlin markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Augsburg | 50.8% | 1.97 | +2.5% | 1.96 |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 81.4% | 1.23 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 78.6% | 1.27 | — | — |
| Double chance | 12 (either side) | 76.5% | 1.31 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 47.3% | 2.11 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Augsburg | 50.8% |
| Draw | 23.5% | |
| Union Berlin | 25.7% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 81.4% |
| Under 2.5 | 18.6% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 78.6% |
| No | 21.4% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 74.3% |
| 12 (either side) | 76.5% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 49.2% | |
| Handicap -1 | Augsburg win | 34.5% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 18.1% | |
| Loss | 47.3% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 2-1 | 7.4% |
| 1-1 | 7.0% | |
| 2-2 | 6.8% |
Augsburg vs Union Berlin stats
Augsburg and Union Berlin recent form
| Augsburg |
LDLDWW |
| Union Berlin |
DWLLLD |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Augsburg and Union Berlin season so far
Augsburg record
- They have won 2 of their 5 league games this season, scoring 2.6 goals per match.
Union Berlin record
- They have won 1 of their 5 league games this season, scoring 1.0 goals per match.
Augsburg vs Union Berlin head-to-head
Last 6 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-16 | Union Berlin | Augsburg | Bundesliga | 4-0 |
| 2026-01-15 | Augsburg | Union Berlin | Bundesliga | 1-1 |
| 2025-05-17 | Augsburg | Union Berlin | Bundesliga | 1-2 |
| 2025-01-15 | Union Berlin | Augsburg | Bundesliga | 0-2 |
| 2024-04-12 | Augsburg | Union Berlin | Bundesliga | 2-0 |
| 2023-11-25 | Union Berlin | Augsburg | Bundesliga | 1-1 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Augsburg vs Union Berlin odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 50.0%, draw 24.4%, away 25.7%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 1.96 | 4.16 | 3.78 |
| Bet365 | 1.90 | 3.80 | 3.70 |
| BetVictor | 1.80 | 3.75 | 3.60 |
| Betano | 1.90 | 3.95 | 3.70 |
| Dafabet | 1.91 | 3.90 | 3.70 |
| Marathonbet | 1.91 | 4.05 | 3.68 |
| Pinnacle | 1.85 | 3.95 | 3.84 |
| SBO | 1.88 | 3.43 | 3.28 |
| William Hill | 1.85 | 3.80 | 3.50 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
12 snapshots recorded, from .