Mainz 05
vs
Werder Bremen
Garuda Lions Prediction: Mainz 05
2 – 1 Predicted score · 9% model probability
Mainz 05 vs Werder Bremen overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Mainz 05 vs Werder Bremen
| Probability | Mainz 05 | Draw | Werder Bremen |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 65.4% | 19.5% | 15.1% |
| Market | 56.5% | 22.7% | 20.8% |
| Final | 58.8% | 21.9% | 19.4% |
| Edge | +8.9% | -3.2% | -5.7% |
Why Mainz 05
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.96 vs 1.29.
- Better recent form: 3 wins in the last 6 vs 2 for the opposition.
- The market prices Mainz 05 below the model: +8.9 percentage points of edge.
Best available price on the pick: 1.73, recorded — the top price across the books in the table below, each at its own last update.
Mainz 05 vs Werder Bremen match preview
Mainz 05 faces Werder Bremen in their upcoming Bundesliga match, with Mainz holding a 59% probability of winning according to our model. The expected goals for Mainz are 2.96, while Werder Bremen is projected to score 1.29. The most likely scoreline is 2-1 in favor of Mainz, which has a 9% probability. Additionally, there is a 76% chance of over 2.5 goals being scored, and 69% likelihood that both teams will find the back of the net.
In terms of recent form, Mainz 05 has recorded a mixed bag of results with three wins, one draw, and two losses in their last six matches. Conversely, Werder Bremen's recent performance includes two wins and four draws, alongside one loss. Historically, in their last six encounters, Mainz has secured one win, while Werder Bremen has achieved four victories and one draw.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Mainz 05 and Werder Bremen expected goals
Total expected goals: 4.25
Mainz 05 and Werder Bremen attack and defence ratings
Mainz 05
Werder Bremen
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Matchday 7 fixtures
Before and after this match
Mainz 05 vs Werder Bremen markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Mainz 05 | 58.8% | 1.70 | +8.9% | 1.73 |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 75.5% | 1.32 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 68.7% | 1.46 | — | — |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 80.6% | 1.24 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Mainz 05 win | 46.1% | 2.17 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Mainz 05 | 58.8% |
| Draw | 21.9% | |
| Werder Bremen | 19.4% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 75.5% |
| Under 2.5 | 24.5% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 68.7% |
| No | 31.3% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 80.6% |
| 12 (either side) | 78.1% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 41.2% | |
| Handicap -1 | Mainz 05 win | 46.1% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 19.3% | |
| Loss | 34.6% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 2-1 | 8.8% |
| 1-1 | 7.9% | |
| 3-1 | 7.8% |
Mainz 05 vs Werder Bremen stats
Mainz 05 and Werder Bremen recent form
| Mainz 05 |
WLWLWD |
| Werder Bremen |
DDWDWL |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Mainz 05 and Werder Bremen season so far
Mainz 05 record
- They have won 2 of their 5 league games this season, scoring 2.6 goals per match.
- 50% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Werder Bremen record
- They have won 2 of their 5 league games this season, scoring 2.0 goals per match.
Mainz 05 vs Werder Bremen head-to-head
Last 6 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-15 | Werder Bremen | Mainz 05 | Bundesliga | 0-2 |
| 2025-11-01 | Mainz 05 | Werder Bremen | Bundesliga | 1-1 |
| 2025-01-31 | Werder Bremen | Mainz 05 | Bundesliga | 1-0 |
| 2024-09-15 | Mainz 05 | Werder Bremen | Bundesliga | 1-2 |
| 2024-02-03 | Mainz 05 | Werder Bremen | Bundesliga | 0-1 |
| 2023-09-02 | Werder Bremen | Mainz 05 | Bundesliga | 4-0 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Mainz 05 vs Werder Bremen odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 56.4%, draw 22.7%, away 20.9%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 1.73 | 4.41 | 4.72 |
| Bet365 | 1.67 | 4.10 | 4.50 |
| BetVictor | 1.62 | 4.00 | 4.33 |
| Betano | 1.70 | 4.15 | 4.60 |
| Dafabet | 1.69 | 4.20 | 4.50 |
| Marathonbet | 1.69 | 4.30 | 4.60 |
| Pinnacle | 1.67 | 4.23 | 4.59 |
| SBO | 1.60 | 3.85 | 4.06 |
| William Hill | 1.67 | 4.00 | 4.33 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
12 snapshots recorded, from .