RasenBallsport Leipzig
vs
SV Elversberg
Garuda Lions Prediction: RasenBallsport Leipzig
2 – 1 Predicted score · 8% model probability
RasenBallsport Leipzig vs SV Elversberg overview
Garuda Lions analysis: RasenBallsport Leipzig vs SV Elversberg
| Probability | RasenBallsport Leipzig | Draw | SV Elversberg |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 47.0% | 23.2% | 29.8% |
| Market | 70.3% | 16.7% | 13.0% |
| Final | 64.5% | 18.3% | 17.2% |
| Edge | -23.3% | +6.5% | +16.8% |
Why RasenBallsport Leipzig
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.47 vs 1.77.
Best available price on the pick: 1.38, recorded — the top price across the books in the table below, each at its own last update.
RasenBallsport Leipzig vs SV Elversberg match preview
RasenBallsport Leipzig enters this match with a 64% probability of winning against SV Elversberg, who has a 17% chance of victory. The most likely scoreline predicted by our model is 2-1, occurring with an 8% probability. Leipzig's expected goals stand at 2.47, while Elversberg is projected to score 1.77.
In terms of recent form, Leipzig has recorded two wins, followed by a mix of losses, while Elversberg has shown a more varied performance with two wins, a draw, and two losses in their last six matches. Our model indicates a strong likelihood for over 2.5 goals at 76% and a 75% chance that both teams will score. The confidence grade for this analysis is B.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
RasenBallsport Leipzig and SV Elversberg expected goals
Total expected goals: 4.24
RasenBallsport Leipzig and SV Elversberg attack and defence ratings
RasenBallsport Leipzig
SV Elversberg
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Matchday 7 fixtures
Before and after this match
RasenBallsport Leipzig vs SV Elversberg markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | RasenBallsport Leipzig | 64.5% | 1.55 | -23.3% | 1.38 |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 76.1% | 1.31 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 75.5% | 1.32 | — | — |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 82.8% | 1.21 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 53.0% | 1.89 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | RasenBallsport Leipzig | 64.5% |
| Draw | 18.3% | |
| SV Elversberg | 17.2% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 76.1% |
| Under 2.5 | 23.9% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 75.5% |
| No | 24.5% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 82.8% |
| 12 (either side) | 81.7% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 35.5% | |
| Handicap -1 | RasenBallsport Leipzig win | 28.9% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 18.1% | |
| Loss | 53.0% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 8.7% |
| 2-1 | 8.1% | |
| 2-2 | 7.1% |
RasenBallsport Leipzig vs SV Elversberg stats
RasenBallsport Leipzig and SV Elversberg recent form
| RasenBallsport Leipzig |
WWLWLL |
| SV Elversberg |
WLDLWW |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
RasenBallsport Leipzig and SV Elversberg season so far
RasenBallsport Leipzig record
- They have won 3 of their 5 league games this season, scoring 3.0 goals per match.
- They have kept 3 clean sheets in 5 matches.
SV Elversberg record
- They have won 2 of their 5 league games this season, scoring 1.6 goals per match.
RasenBallsport Leipzig vs SV Elversberg head-to-head
No recent meetings on record
RasenBallsport Leipzig vs SV Elversberg odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 70.4%, draw 16.3%, away 13.4%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 1.38 | 6.09 | 7.70 |
| Bet365 | 1.33 | 5.75 | 7.00 |
| BetVictor | 1.29 | 5.50 | 7.00 |
| Betano | 1.33 | 5.80 | 7.90 |
| Dafabet | 1.35 | 6.00 | 7.00 |
| Marathonbet | 1.35 | 5.90 | 7.50 |
| Pinnacle | 1.33 | 5.54 | 7.95 |
| SBO | 1.30 | 5.22 | 6.09 |
| William Hill | 1.35 | 5.00 | 7.00 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
12 snapshots recorded, from .