SC Paderborn 07
vs
Hamburger SV
Garuda Lions Prediction: SC Paderborn 07
2 – 1 Predicted score · 9% model probability
SC Paderborn 07 vs Hamburger SV overview
Garuda Lions analysis: SC Paderborn 07 vs Hamburger SV
| Probability | SC Paderborn 07 | Draw | Hamburger SV |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 47.7% | 26.8% | 25.5% |
| Market | 40.6% | 25.7% | 33.7% |
| Final | 42.4% | 26.0% | 31.6% |
| Edge | +7.1% | +1.1% | -8.2% |
Why SC Paderborn 07
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.06 vs 1.33.
- The market prices SC Paderborn 07 below the model: +7.1 percentage points of edge.
Best available price on the pick: 2.40, recorded — the top price across the books in the table below, each at its own last update.
SC Paderborn 07 vs Hamburger SV match preview
SC Paderborn 07 hosts Hamburger SV in a Bundesliga clash, with a 42% probability of a home win according to our model. The most likely scoreline is predicted to be 2-1, occurring at a 9% likelihood. Over 2.5 goals are expected in 62% of simulations, while both teams scoring is projected at 64%. The expected goals for Paderborn stand at 2.06, compared to Hamburger SV's 1.33.
In terms of recent form, SC Paderborn 07 has recorded a draw, followed by two losses and a win, then two more draws. Hamburger SV, on the other hand, has seen three consecutive wins before suffering two losses. The confidence grade for this match is rated as B, indicating a moderate level of certainty in the predictions.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
SC Paderborn 07 and Hamburger SV expected goals
Total expected goals: 3.38
SC Paderborn 07 and Hamburger SV attack and defence ratings
SC Paderborn 07
Hamburger SV
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Matchday 7 fixtures
Before and after this match
SC Paderborn 07 vs Hamburger SV markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | SC Paderborn 07 | 42.4% | 2.36 | +7.1% | 2.40 |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 61.5% | 1.63 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 63.9% | 1.56 | — | — |
| Double chance | 12 (either side) | 74.0% | 1.35 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 52.3% | 1.91 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | SC Paderborn 07 | 42.4% |
| Draw | 26.0% | |
| Hamburger SV | 31.6% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 61.5% |
| Under 2.5 | 38.5% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 63.9% |
| No | 36.1% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 68.4% |
| 12 (either side) | 74.0% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 57.6% | |
| Handicap -1 | SC Paderborn 07 win | 27.8% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 19.9% | |
| Loss | 52.3% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 12.3% |
| 2-1 | 9.5% | |
| 2-0 | 7.1% |
SC Paderborn 07 vs Hamburger SV stats
SC Paderborn 07 and Hamburger SV recent form
| SC Paderborn 07 |
DLWLLD |
| Hamburger SV |
WWWLLL |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
SC Paderborn 07 and Hamburger SV season so far
SC Paderborn 07 record
- They have won 1 of their 5 league games this season, scoring 0.6 goals per match.
- They have failed to score in 4 of 5 matches.
Hamburger SV record
- They have won 2 of their 5 league games this season, scoring 1.0 goals per match.
- They have failed to score in 3 of 5 matches.
SC Paderborn 07 vs Hamburger SV head-to-head
No recent meetings on record
SC Paderborn 07 vs Hamburger SV odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 40.3%, draw 26.0%, away 33.7%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 2.40 | 3.92 | 2.91 |
| Bet365 | 2.25 | 3.70 | 2.80 |
| BetVictor | 2.20 | 3.60 | 2.70 |
| Betano | 2.35 | 3.60 | 2.87 |
| Dafabet | 2.37 | 3.70 | 2.80 |
| Marathonbet | 2.34 | 3.82 | 2.83 |
| Pinnacle | 2.40 | 3.63 | 2.80 |
| SBO | 2.23 | 3.34 | 2.61 |
| William Hill | 2.30 | 3.60 | 2.75 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
12 snapshots recorded, from .