Freiburg
vs
Bayern Munich
Garuda Lions Prediction: Bayern Munich
1 – 2 Predicted score · 8% model probability
- WhyHigher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.50 vs 1.91.
- RiskNo edge: the market already prices this — Bayern Munich is the favourite, not a value bet.
Freiburg vs Bayern Munich overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Freiburg vs Bayern Munich
| Probability | Freiburg | Draw | Bayern Munich |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 24.9% | 21.4% | 53.7% |
| Market | 14.0% | 16.4% | 69.6% |
| Final | 16.7% | 17.7% | 65.6% |
| Edge | +2.7% | +1.2% | -4.0% |
Why Bayern Munich
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.50 vs 1.91.
Best available price on the pick: 1.42, recorded — the top price across the books in the table below, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: -6.9% per unit staked (our 65.6% × 1.42 − 1).
Freiburg vs Bayern Munich match preview
Freiburg faces Bayern Munich in their upcoming Bundesliga clash, with Freiburg holding a 17% chance of victory compared to Bayern's 65%. The most likely scoreline predicted by our model is 1-2, occurring with an 8% probability. The expected goals for Freiburg stand at 1.92, while Bayern Munich is forecasted to score 2.50.
In terms of recent form, Freiburg has recorded two losses, a win, a draw, and two more wins in their last six matches. Meanwhile, Bayern Munich has shown a stronger performance with four wins and two draws in the same period. Historically, Freiburg has struggled against Bayern, with no wins and only one draw in their last six encounters. The model indicates a high likelihood of over 2.5 goals at 79% and both teams scoring at 77%.
Freiburg and Bayern Munich team news
Freiburg news
- B. Yilmaz — lacking match fitness
- Y. Engelhardt — injury
Bayern Munich news
- J. Kimmich — personal reasons
- J. Musiala — muscle injury
- Kim Min-Jae — knee injury
- L. Diaz — muscle injury
- T. Buchmann — knee injury
Reported injuries and suspensions from our data provider. Confirmed line-ups appear ~40 minutes before kickoff.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Freiburg and Bayern Munich expected goals
Total expected goals: 4.42
Freiburg and Bayern Munich attack and defence ratings
Freiburg
Bayern Munich
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Matchday 7 fixtures
- VfB Stuttgart v Borussia M.Gladbach — match page
- Mainz 05 vs Werder Bremen
- Augsburg vs Union Berlin
- RasenBallsport Leipzig vs SV Elversberg — team news & stats
- SC Paderborn 07 vs Hamburger SV
- FC Cologne v FC Schalke 04 — match page
- Borussia Dortmund v Eintracht Frankfurt — match page
- Hoffenheim vs Bayer Leverkusen — team news & stats
Before and after this match
Freiburg vs Bayern Munich markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Bayern Munich | 65.6% | 1.52 | -4.0% | 1.42 |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 79.3% | 1.26 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 76.7% | 1.30 | — | — |
| Double chance | X2 (draw or away) | 83.3% | 1.20 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 46.3% | 2.16 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Freiburg | 16.7% |
| Draw | 17.7% | |
| Bayern Munich | 65.6% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 79.3% |
| Under 2.5 | 20.7% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 76.7% |
| No | 23.3% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 34.4% |
| 12 (either side) | 82.3% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 83.3% | |
| Handicap -1 | Bayern Munich win | 35.2% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 18.5% | |
| Loss | 46.3% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-2 | 7.9% |
| 1-1 | 7.6% | |
| 2-2 | 6.8% |
Freiburg vs Bayern Munich stats
Freiburg and Bayern Munich recent form
| Freiburg |
LLWWDW |
| Bayern Munich |
DWDDWW |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Freiburg and Bayern Munich season so far
Freiburg record
- They have won 4 of their 5 league games this season, scoring 2.8 goals per match.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
- 30% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Bayern Munich record
- They have won 3 of their 5 league games this season, scoring 3.2 goals per match.
Freiburg vs Bayern Munich head-to-head
Last 6 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-04 | Freiburg | Bayern Munich | Bundesliga | 2-3 |
| 2025-11-22 | Bayern Munich | Freiburg | Bundesliga | 6-2 |
| 2025-01-25 | Freiburg | Bayern Munich | Bundesliga | 1-2 |
| 2024-09-01 | Bayern Munich | Freiburg | Bundesliga | 2-0 |
| 2024-03-01 | Freiburg | Bayern Munich | Bundesliga | 2-2 |
| 2023-10-08 | Bayern Munich | Freiburg | Bundesliga | 3-0 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Freiburg vs Bayern Munich odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 14.1%, draw 16.4%, away 69.4%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 7.03 | 5.95 | 1.42 |
| Bet365 | 6.50 | 5.75 | 1.36 |
| BetVictor | 6.50 | 5.25 | 1.33 |
| Betano | 6.80 | 5.70 | 1.37 |
| Betfair | 7.00 | 6.00 | 1.36 |
| Dafabet | 6.60 | 6.00 | 1.39 |
| Marathonbet | 6.85 | 5.80 | 1.38 |
| Pinnacle | 6.80 | 6.05 | 1.38 |
| SBO | 5.51 | 5.13 | 1.34 |
| William Hill | 6.00 | 5.00 | 1.36 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
25 snapshots recorded, from .