Hoffenheim
vs
Bayer Leverkusen
Garuda Lions Prediction: Bayer Leverkusen
1 – 2 Predicted score · 9% model probability
- WhyHigher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.85 vs 1.52.
- RiskNo edge: the market already prices this — Bayer Leverkusen is the favourite, not a value bet.
Hoffenheim vs Bayer Leverkusen overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Hoffenheim vs Bayer Leverkusen
| Probability | Hoffenheim | Draw | Bayer Leverkusen |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 26.6% | 26.8% | 46.6% |
| Market | 34.6% | 24.1% | 41.2% |
| Final | 32.6% | 24.8% | 42.6% |
| Edge | -2.0% | +0.7% | +1.3% |
Why Bayer Leverkusen
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.85 vs 1.52.
- Better recent form: 6 wins in the last 6 vs 2 for the opposition.
Best available price on the pick: 2.39, recorded — the top price across the books in the table below, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: +1.8% per unit staked (our 42.6% × 2.39 − 1).
Hoffenheim vs Bayer Leverkusen match preview
Hoffenheim faces Bayer Leverkusen in a Bundesliga clash on October 25, 2026. Hoffenheim has struggled recently, recording four losses in their last six matches, with a lone victory. In contrast, Bayer Leverkusen is in excellent form, having won five consecutive matches, followed by a draw. The model indicates a 32% chance of Hoffenheim winning, a 24% chance of a draw, and a 44% chance for Bayer Leverkusen to secure the victory.
The expected goals for this match suggest Hoffenheim will score approximately 1.55, while Bayer Leverkusen is projected to net around 2.27. The most likely scoreline predicted by the model is 1-2, occurring with a 9% probability. Additionally, there is a 71% likelihood of over 2.5 goals and a 69% chance that both teams will score.
Hoffenheim and Bayer Leverkusen team news
Hoffenheim news
- A. Hajdari — foot injury
- B. Conte — injury
- N. De Cat — knee injury
- P. Wimmer — thigh injury
Bayer Leverkusen news
- C. Kofane — muscle injury
- E. Ben Seghir — muscle injury
- G. Doue — calf injury
- K. Eichhorn — illness
- M. Culbreath — foot injury
- M. Terrier — muscle injury
Reported injuries and suspensions from our data provider. Confirmed line-ups appear ~40 minutes before kickoff.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Hoffenheim and Bayer Leverkusen expected goals
Total expected goals: 3.37
Hoffenheim and Bayer Leverkusen attack and defence ratings
Hoffenheim
Bayer Leverkusen
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Matchday 7 fixtures
- VfB Stuttgart v Borussia M.Gladbach — match page
- Mainz 05 vs Werder Bremen
- Augsburg vs Union Berlin
- RasenBallsport Leipzig vs SV Elversberg — team news & stats
- SC Paderborn 07 vs Hamburger SV
- FC Cologne v FC Schalke 04 — match page
- Borussia Dortmund v Eintracht Frankfurt — match page
- Freiburg vs Bayern Munich — team news & stats
Before and after this match
Hoffenheim vs Bayer Leverkusen markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Bayer Leverkusen | 42.6% | 2.35 | +1.3% | 2.39 |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 62.4% | 1.60 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 64.9% | 1.54 | — | — |
| Double chance | 12 (either side) | 75.2% | 1.33 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 53.4% | 1.87 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Hoffenheim | 32.6% |
| Draw | 24.8% | |
| Bayer Leverkusen | 42.6% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 62.4% |
| Under 2.5 | 37.6% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 64.9% |
| No | 35.1% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 57.4% |
| 12 (either side) | 75.2% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 67.4% | |
| Handicap -1 | Bayer Leverkusen win | 27.0% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 19.6% | |
| Loss | 53.4% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 12.2% |
| 1-2 | 9.4% | |
| 2-1 | 7.0% |
Hoffenheim vs Bayer Leverkusen stats
Hoffenheim and Bayer Leverkusen recent form
| Hoffenheim |
WWLLLL |
| Bayer Leverkusen |
WWWWWW |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Hoffenheim and Bayer Leverkusen season so far
Hoffenheim record
- They have won 1 of their 5 league games this season, scoring 1.8 goals per match.
- 36% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Bayer Leverkusen record
- They have won 3 of their 5 league games this season, scoring 2.8 goals per match.
Hoffenheim vs Bayer Leverkusen head-to-head
Last 6 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-01-17 | Hoffenheim | Bayer Leverkusen | Bundesliga | 1-0 |
| 2025-08-23 | Bayer Leverkusen | Hoffenheim | Bundesliga | 1-2 |
| 2025-02-02 | Bayer Leverkusen | Hoffenheim | Bundesliga | 3-1 |
| 2024-09-14 | Hoffenheim | Bayer Leverkusen | Bundesliga | 1-4 |
| 2024-03-30 | Bayer Leverkusen | Hoffenheim | Bundesliga | 2-1 |
| 2023-11-04 | Hoffenheim | Bayer Leverkusen | Bundesliga | 2-3 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Hoffenheim vs Bayer Leverkusen odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 34.6%, draw 24.2%, away 41.2%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 2.76 | 4.26 | 2.39 |
| Bet365 | 2.88 | 3.75 | 2.30 |
| BetVictor | 2.63 | 3.80 | 2.20 |
| Betano | 2.75 | 3.95 | 2.32 |
| Betfair | 2.80 | 3.90 | 2.30 |
| Dafabet | 2.75 | 3.95 | 2.35 |
| Marathonbet | 2.69 | 4.15 | 2.33 |
| Pinnacle | 2.81 | 4.07 | 2.31 |
| SBO | 2.45 | 3.50 | 2.30 |
| William Hill | 2.62 | 3.90 | 2.25 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
25 snapshots recorded, from .