Holstein Kiel
vs
Hoffenheim
1 – 1 Full time
| 11′ | Adam Hložek | ||
| 23′ | Adrian Kapralik | ||
| 33′ | Valentin GendreyVladimír Coufal | ||
| 41′ | Adam Hložek | ||
| 42′ | Ivan Nekić | ||
| 45′ | Wouter Burger | ||
| 45′ | Wouter BurgerAdam Daghim | ||
| 45′ | Tim LemperleFisnik Asllani | ||
| 64′ | Adam HložekBambasé Conté | ||
| 65′ | Ikem UgohGuillermo Balzi | ||
| 68′ | Leon Avdullahu | ||
| 74′ | Tim Walter | ||
| 76′ | Oliver Baumann | ||
| 90′ | Jonas Torrissen TherkelsenGyan de Regt | ||
| 90′ | Kasper DavidsenGiorgi Kvilitaia | ||
| 95′ | Bambasé ContéMats Rots | ||
| 103′ | Leon ParduziJohn Tolkin | ||
| 105′ | Koki Machida | ||
| 106′ | Adrian Kapralik | ||
| 115′ | Adrian KapralikFaride·Alidou | ||
| 117′ | Giorgi Kvilitaia | ||
| 122′ | Andrej Kramarić | ||
| 123′ | Ivan Nekić | ||
| 123′ | Fisnik Asllani | ||
| 124′ | Guillermo Balzi | ||
| 126′ | Gyan de Regt | ||
| 127′ | Alexander Prass | ||
| 127′ | Phil Harres |
Match stats
| 16 | Shots | 13 |
|---|---|---|
| 5 | Shots on target | 4 |
| 44 | Possession % | 56 |
| 6 | Corners | 10 |
| 19 | Fouls | 17 |
| 0 | Offsides | 5 |
| 3 | Saves | 4 |
| 353 | Accurate passes | 469 |
Holstein Kiel vs Hoffenheim overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Holstein Kiel vs Hoffenheim
| Probability | Holstein Kiel | Draw | Hoffenheim |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 10.3% | 22.3% | 67.4% |
| Market | 16.4% | 19.2% | 64.4% |
| Final | 14.9% | 20.0% | 65.2% |
| Edge | -1.5% | +0.8% | +0.7% |
Why Hoffenheim
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.93 vs 0.65.
- Better recent form: 3 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Holstein Kiel and Hoffenheim expected goals
Total expected goals: 2.57
Holstein Kiel and Hoffenheim attack and defence ratings
Holstein Kiel
Hoffenheim
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Holstein Kiel vs Hoffenheim: result vs prediction
Holstein Kiel 1 – 1 Hoffenheim
| Market | Outcome |
|---|---|
| 1X2 pick | ✗ Incorrect |
| Over/Under 2.5 pick | ✓ Correct |
| BTTS pick | ✗ Incorrect |
Other Round of 32 fixtures
- Hamburger SV vs Eintracht Frankfurt
- Bochum v Mainz 05 — match page
- SG Sonnenhof Grossaspach vs Augsburg
- Rot-Weiß Essen v RasenBallsport Leipzig — match page
- Borussia M.Gladbach vs Karlsruher SC — team news & stats
- Borussia Dortmund vs Werder Bremen
- FC Cologne vs Union Berlin — team news & stats
- SV Elversberg vs Darmstadt
Before and after this match
Holstein Kiel vs Hoffenheim markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Hoffenheim | 65.2% | 1.53 | +0.7% | — |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Under 2.5 | 52.8% | 1.89 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | No | 59.1% | 1.69 | — | — |
| Double chance | X2 (draw or away) | 85.1% | 1.17 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Hoffenheim win | 41.9% | 2.39 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Holstein Kiel | 14.9% |
| Draw | 20.0% | |
| Hoffenheim | 65.2% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 47.2% |
| Under 2.5 | 52.8% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 40.9% |
| No | 59.1% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 34.8% |
| 12 (either side) | 80.0% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 85.1% | |
| Handicap -1 | Hoffenheim win | 41.9% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 25.0% | |
| Loss | 33.1% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 0-2 | 14.4% |
| 0-1 | 14.0% | |
| 1-1 | 10.3% |
Holstein Kiel vs Hoffenheim stats
Holstein Kiel and Hoffenheim recent form
| Holstein Kiel |
WDLDLD |
| Hoffenheim |
WWWLLL |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Holstein Kiel vs Hoffenheim head-to-head
Last 4 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-29 | Hoffenheim | Holstein Kiel | Friendlies Clubs | 3-1 |
| 2025-01-18 | Holstein Kiel | Hoffenheim | Bundesliga | 1-3 |
| 2024-08-24 | Hoffenheim | Holstein Kiel | Bundesliga | 3-2 |
| 2021-10-26 | Hoffenheim | Holstein Kiel | DFB Pokal | 5-1 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Holstein Kiel vs Hoffenheim odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 16.4%, draw 19.2%, away 64.4%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 5.76 | 4.85 | 1.45 |
| Bet365 | 6.25 | 4.50 | 1.48 |
| BetVictor | 5.50 | 4.60 | 1.44 |
| Betano | 5.60 | 5.20 | 1.53 |
| Betfair | 5.50 | 5.00 | 1.36 |
| Dafabet | 5.80 | 5.00 | 1.49 |
| Marathonbet | 5.75 | 4.85 | 1.44 |
| Pinnacle | 5.75 | 5.09 | 1.48 |
| SBO | 5.22 | 4.68 | 1.42 |
| William Hill | 5.00 | 4.60 | 1.44 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
16 snapshots recorded, from .