Holstein Kiel
vs
Dynamo Dresden
Garuda Lions Prediction: Holstein Kiel
1 – 0 Predicted score · 9% model probability
- RiskNo edge: the market already prices this — Holstein Kiel is the favourite, not a value bet.
Holstein Kiel vs Dynamo Dresden overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Holstein Kiel vs Dynamo Dresden
| Probability | Holstein Kiel | Draw | Dynamo Dresden |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 35.4% | 30.0% | 34.6% |
| Market | 41.5% | 25.2% | 33.3% |
| Final | 39.9% | 26.4% | 33.6% |
| Edge | -1.5% | +1.2% | +0.3% |
Best available price on the pick: 2.35, recorded — the top price across the books in the table below, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: -6.1% per unit staked (our 39.9% × 2.35 − 1).
Holstein Kiel vs Dynamo Dresden match preview
Holstein Kiel faces Dynamo Dresden in a closely matched encounter, with both teams having a 35% probability of winning according to our model. The likelihood of a draw stands at 30%. The most probable scoreline is 1-0 in favor of Holstein Kiel, occurring at a 9% chance. Expected goals are nearly identical, with Holstein Kiel at 1.22 and Dynamo Dresden at 1.21, indicating a balanced offensive performance.
In terms of recent form, Holstein Kiel has struggled, recording a sequence of draws and losses, while Dynamo Dresden recently secured a win but has also faced difficulties, with two losses in their last three matches. The head-to-head record is evenly split over the last two meetings, with each team securing one victory. The overall confidence grade for this match is C, reflecting the uncertainty surrounding the outcome.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Holstein Kiel and Dynamo Dresden expected goals
Total expected goals: 2.43
Holstein Kiel and Dynamo Dresden attack and defence ratings
Holstein Kiel
Dynamo Dresden
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Matchday 9 fixtures
- Bochum vs Wolfsburg
- Darmstadt vs St. Pauli
- Hertha BSC v Arminia Bielefeld — match page
- 1. FC Magdeburg v Karlsruher SC — match page
- FC Heidenheim vs Energie Cottbus — team news & stats
- 1. FC Nürnberg vs 1. FC Kaiserslautern — team news & stats
- Eintracht Braunschweig vs Hannover 96 — team news & stats
- VfL Osnabrück vs SpVgg Greuther Fürth
Before and after this match
Holstein Kiel vs Dynamo Dresden markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Holstein Kiel | 39.9% | 2.50 | -1.5% | 2.35 |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Under 2.5 | 56.1% | 1.78 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 50.8% | 1.97 | — | — |
| Double chance | 12 (either side) | 73.6% | 1.36 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 64.6% | 1.55 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Holstein Kiel | 39.9% |
| Draw | 26.4% | |
| Dynamo Dresden | 33.6% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 43.9% |
| Under 2.5 | 56.1% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 50.8% |
| No | 49.2% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 66.4% |
| 12 (either side) | 73.6% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 60.1% | |
| Handicap -1 | Holstein Kiel win | 15.8% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 19.6% | |
| Loss | 64.6% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 14.3% |
| 0-0 | 10.1% | |
| 1-0 | 9.4% |
Holstein Kiel vs Dynamo Dresden stats
Holstein Kiel and Dynamo Dresden recent form
| Holstein Kiel |
DLDLDL |
| Dynamo Dresden |
WDLDLL |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Holstein Kiel and Dynamo Dresden season so far
Holstein Kiel record
- They have won 0 of their 7 league games this season, scoring 1.0 goals per match.
- They average 1.7 goals per game at home against 0.5 on the road.
- They have failed to score in 3 of 7 matches.
Dynamo Dresden record
- They have won 1 of their 7 league games this season, scoring 1.3 goals per match.
- They average 1.5 goals per game on the road against 1.0 at home.
Holstein Kiel vs Dynamo Dresden head-to-head
Last 2 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-17 | Dynamo Dresden | Holstein Kiel | 2. Bundesliga | 2-1 |
| 2025-12-20 | Holstein Kiel | Dynamo Dresden | 2. Bundesliga | 2-1 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Holstein Kiel vs Dynamo Dresden odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 41.4%, draw 25.3%, away 33.3%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 2.25 | 3.70 | 2.82 |
| Bet365 | 2.25 | 3.60 | 2.80 |
| BetVictor | 2.25 | 3.60 | 2.70 |
| Betano | 2.35 | 3.65 | 2.85 |
| Betfair | 2.30 | 3.70 | 2.80 |
| Dafabet | 2.32 | 3.70 | 2.85 |
| Marathonbet | 2.23 | 3.70 | 2.81 |
| Pinnacle | 2.34 | 3.81 | 2.78 |
| SBO | 2.17 | 3.28 | 2.59 |
| William Hill | 2.25 | 3.50 | 2.70 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
11 snapshots recorded, from .