Holstein Kiel
vs
Hertha BSC
Garuda Lions Prediction: Hertha BSC
1 – 2 Predicted score · 9% model probability
Holstein Kiel vs Hertha BSC overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Holstein Kiel vs Hertha BSC
| Probability | Holstein Kiel | Draw | Hertha BSC |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 34.2% | 26.5% | 39.3% |
| Market | — | — | — |
| Final | 34.2% | 26.5% | 39.3% |
| Edge | — | — | — |
Why Hertha BSC
- Better recent form: 5 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Holstein Kiel and Hertha BSC expected goals
Total expected goals: 2.79
Holstein Kiel and Hertha BSC attack and defence ratings
Holstein Kiel
Hertha BSC
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Matchday 8 fixtures
Before and after this match
Holstein Kiel vs Hertha BSC markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Hertha BSC | 39.3% | 2.55 | — | — |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 57.6% | 1.74 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 61.3% | 1.63 | — | — |
| Double chance | 12 (either side) | 73.5% | 1.36 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 58.5% | 1.71 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Holstein Kiel | 34.2% |
| Draw | 26.5% | |
| Hertha BSC | 39.3% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 57.6% |
| Under 2.5 | 42.4% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 61.3% |
| No | 38.7% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 60.7% |
| 12 (either side) | 73.5% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 65.8% | |
| Handicap -1 | Hertha BSC win | 21.0% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 20.5% | |
| Loss | 58.5% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 12.3% |
| 1-2 | 8.7% | |
| 2-1 | 8.1% |
Holstein Kiel vs Hertha BSC stats
Holstein Kiel and Hertha BSC recent form
| Holstein Kiel |
LDLDLW |
| Hertha BSC |
WWWWDW |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Holstein Kiel and Hertha BSC season so far
Holstein Kiel record
- They have won 0 of their 6 league games this season, scoring 1.2 goals per match.
- They average 1.7 goals per game at home against 0.7 on the road.
Hertha BSC record
- They have won 5 of their 5 league games this season, scoring 3.0 goals per match.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 5 matches.
- 40% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Holstein Kiel vs Hertha BSC head-to-head
Last 2 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-25 | Hertha BSC | Holstein Kiel | 2. Bundesliga | 0-1 |
| 2025-11-29 | Holstein Kiel | Hertha BSC | 2. Bundesliga | 0-1 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.