2. Bundesliga · 2026-10-16T16:30:00Z UTC Full time ·Matchday 8

Energie Cottbus vs 1. FC Nürnberg

1 – 1 Full time

33′			Mohamed Alì ZomaWilliam Bøving
34′			Adam Markhiev
45′			Henry Rorig
56′			Justin Butler
61′			Alexios Kalogeropoulos
65′			Leon Guwarafousseny doumbia
65′			Leonardo BittencourtDominik Pelivan
65′			Rayan GhriebRafael Lubach
66′			Alexios KalogeropoulosStyopa Mkrtchyan
68′			Tolcay Cigerci
79′			Styopa Mkrtchyan
80′			Henry RorigChristian Kinsombi
80′			Justin ButlerDmytro Bogdanov
82′			King Samuel ManuTim Campulka
90′			Christian Kinsombi

Stadion der Freundschaft, CottbusReferee: Felix Bickel

Energie Cottbus

28%

Draw

22%

1. FC Nürnberg

50%

Confidence: Low · blended with market odds

Match stats

14	Shots	19
5	Shots on target	5
38	Possession %	62
2	Corners	8
9	Fouls	12
2	Offsides	1
4	Saves	4
245	Accurate passes	452

Energie Cottbus vs 1. FC Nürnberg overview

Garuda Lions analysis: Energie Cottbus vs 1. FC Nürnberg

model vs market on the 1X2

Probability	Energie Cottbus	Draw	1. FC Nürnberg
Model	32.9%	21.4%	45.7%
Market	26.0%	22.1%	51.9%
Final	27.7%	21.9%	50.4%
Edge	+1.7%	-0.2%	-1.6%

Confidence: Low · Edge = Final minus Market

Why 1. FC Nürnberg

Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.24 vs 1.91.
Better recent form: 3 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.

Scoreline probability

model grid

Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.

Goal probability

Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.

1+ goals

98%

2+ goals

93%

3+ goals

78%

No goals

Energie Cottbus and 1. FC Nürnberg expected goals

Energie Cottbus

1.91

1. FC Nürnberg

2.24

Total expected goals: 4.15

Energie Cottbus and 1. FC Nürnberg attack and defence ratings

Energie Cottbus

Attack

1.20 +20%

Defence

1.20 +20%

1. FC Nürnberg

Attack

1.42 +42%

Defence

0.96 -4%

Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.

Energie Cottbus vs 1. FC Nürnberg: result vs prediction

Energie Cottbus 1 – 1 1. FC Nürnberg

Market	Outcome
1X2 pick	✗ Incorrect
Over/Under 2.5 pick	✗ Incorrect
BTTS pick	✓ Correct

Other Matchday 8 fixtures

2. Bundesliga

Holstein Kiel vs Hertha BSC · 2026-10-16
Wolfsburg v FC Heidenheim — match page · 2026-10-17
SpVgg Greuther Fürth vs Eintracht Braunschweig · 2026-10-17
1. FC Kaiserslautern v Bochum — match page · 2026-10-17
Hannover 96 vs St. Pauli — team news & stats · 2026-10-17
Dynamo Dresden v 1. FC Magdeburg — match page · 2026-10-18
Arminia Bielefeld vs VfL Osnabrück — team news & stats · 2026-10-18
Karlsruher SC vs Darmstadt — team news & stats · 2026-10-18

Before and after this match

Energie Cottbus, previous: Darmstadt v Energie Cottbus analysis
Energie Cottbus, next: FC Heidenheim vs Energie Cottbus: odds and pick
1. FC Nürnberg, previous: 1. FC Nürnberg v Wolfsburg analysis
1. FC Nürnberg, next: 1. FC Nürnberg vs 1. FC Kaiserslautern prediction

Energie Cottbus vs 1. FC Nürnberg markets

Best value

the model's strongest selection per market

Market	Model pick	Probability	Fair odds	Edge	Best price
1X2	1. FC Nürnberg	50.4%	1.99	-1.6%	—
Over/Under 2.5	Over 2.5	78.3%	1.28	—	—
Both teams to score	Yes	76.8%	1.30	—	—
Double chance	12 (either side)	78.1%	1.28	—	—
Handicap -1	Loss	54.3%	1.84	—	—

Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.

All probabilities

all probabilities from one model grid

Market	Selection	Probability
1X2	Energie Cottbus	27.7%
	Draw	21.9%
	1. FC Nürnberg	50.4%
Over/Under 2.5	Over 2.5	78.3%
	Under 2.5	21.7%
Both teams to score	Yes	76.8%
	No	23.2%
Double chance	1X (home or draw)	49.6%
	12 (either side)	78.1%
	X2 (draw or away)	72.3%
Handicap -1	1. FC Nürnberg win	27.5%
	Push (exactly one goal)	18.2%
	Loss	54.3%
Correct score (top 3)	1-2	7.6%
	1-1	7.4%
	2-2	7.2%

Energie Cottbus vs 1. FC Nürnberg stats

Energie Cottbus and 1. FC Nürnberg recent form

newest first

Energie Cottbus	LDWDLL
1. FC Nürnberg	DWWDWD

W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.

Energie Cottbus and 1. FC Nürnberg going into this match

league record before kick-off

Energie Cottbus record

They have won 2 of their 7 league games this season, scoring 2.1 goals per match.
50% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.

1. FC Nürnberg record

They have won 5 of their 7 league games this season, scoring 2.9 goals per match.
They average 3.2 goals per game at home against 2.3 on the road.
Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
38% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.

Energie Cottbus vs 1. FC Nürnberg head-to-head

No recent meetings on record

Our head-to-head history covers these clubs' top-flight matches from 2014 onwards — these two simply haven't crossed paths in that window (newly promoted sides and cross-division pairings are the usual reason). The prediction doesn't rely on H2H: it is built from each team's current expected-goals ratings.

Energie Cottbus vs 1. FC Nürnberg odds

Odds comparison

latest snapshot per book

Median de-vigged market: home 26.0%, draw 22.0%, away 52.0%.

Bookmaker	1	X	2
1xBet	3.60	4.25	1.80
Bet365	3.60	4.10	1.80
BetVictor	3.60	4.20	1.80
Betano	3.75	4.35	1.80
Betfair	3.50	4.33	1.80
Dafabet	3.65	4.30	1.85
Marathonbet	3.62	4.25	1.78
Pinnacle	3.71	4.49	1.85
SBO	3.46	3.89	1.78
William Hill	3.40	4.00	1.80

Odds movement

Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.

1 3.60 ▲ +0.48

X 4.22 ▲ +0.27

2 1.80 ▼ -0.20

12 snapshots recorded, from 2026-10-11T08:10:02Z.