2. Bundesliga
·
·Matchday 8
Energie Cottbus
vs
1. FC Nürnberg
Garuda Lions Prediction: 1. FC Nürnberg
1 – 2 Predicted score · 9% model probability
Energie Cottbus
32%
Draw
24%
1. FC Nürnberg
44%
Chance 1. FC Nürnberg wins
44%
most likely outcome
Chance of a goal
96%
at least one goal in the match
Both teams score
69%
goals at both ends
Most likely score with our pick
1 – 2
9% of simulated outcomes
Energie Cottbus vs 1. FC Nürnberg overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Energie Cottbus vs 1. FC Nürnberg
| Probability | Energie Cottbus | Draw | 1. FC Nürnberg |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 31.9% | 23.9% | 44.2% |
| Market | — | — | — |
| Final | 31.9% | 23.9% | 44.2% |
| Edge | — | — | — |
Why 1. FC Nürnberg
- Better recent form: 4 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
1+ goals
96%
2+ goals
87%
3+ goals
68%
No goals
4%
Energie Cottbus and 1. FC Nürnberg expected goals
Energie Cottbus
1.60
1. FC Nürnberg
1.90
Total expected goals: 3.50
Energie Cottbus and 1. FC Nürnberg attack and defence ratings
Energie Cottbus
Attack
1.28 +28%
Defence
1.09 +9%
1. FC Nürnberg
Attack
1.31 +31%
Defence
0.76 -24%
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Matchday 8 fixtures
Before and after this match
Energie Cottbus vs 1. FC Nürnberg markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | 1. FC Nürnberg | 44.2% | 2.26 | — | — |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 67.7% | 1.48 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 68.6% | 1.46 | — | — |
| Double chance | 12 (either side) | 76.1% | 1.31 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 55.8% | 1.79 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Energie Cottbus | 31.9% |
| Draw | 23.9% | |
| 1. FC Nürnberg | 44.2% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 67.7% |
| Under 2.5 | 32.3% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 68.6% |
| No | 31.4% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 55.8% |
| 12 (either side) | 76.1% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 68.1% | |
| Handicap -1 | 1. FC Nürnberg win | 24.9% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 19.3% | |
| Loss | 55.8% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 10.2% |
| 1-2 | 8.7% | |
| 2-1 | 7.4% |
Energie Cottbus vs 1. FC Nürnberg stats
Energie Cottbus and 1. FC Nürnberg recent form
| Energie Cottbus |
DWDLLL |
| 1. FC Nürnberg |
WWDWDW |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Energie Cottbus and 1. FC Nürnberg season so far
Energie Cottbus record
- They have won 2 of their 6 league games this season, scoring 2.3 goals per match.
- 50% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
1. FC Nürnberg record
- They have won 5 of their 6 league games this season, scoring 2.7 goals per match.
- They average 3.0 goals per game at home against 2.3 on the road.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
- 31% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.