1. FC Nürnberg
vs
Wolfsburg
Garuda Lions Prediction: 1. FC Nürnberg
2 – 1 Predicted score · 9% model probability
1. FC Nürnberg vs Wolfsburg overview
Garuda Lions analysis: 1. FC Nürnberg vs Wolfsburg
| Probability | 1. FC Nürnberg | Draw | Wolfsburg |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 55.6% | 21.7% | 22.7% |
| Market | 37.9% | 24.3% | 37.9% |
| Final | 42.3% | 23.6% | 34.1% |
| Edge | +17.7% | -2.5% | -15.1% |
Why 1. FC Nürnberg
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.25 vs 1.41.
- Better recent form: 4 wins in the last 6 vs 3 for the opposition.
- The market prices 1. FC Nürnberg below the model: +17.7 percentage points of edge.
Best available price on the pick: 2.55, recorded — the top price across the books in the table below, each at its own last update.
1. FC Nürnberg vs Wolfsburg match preview
In the upcoming 2. Bundesliga match, 1. FC Nürnberg will host Wolfsburg on October 10, 2026. The model indicates a 42% probability of a home victory for Nürnberg, while Wolfsburg has a 34% chance of winning, and a draw stands at 23%. The most likely scoreline is projected to be 2-1 in favor of Nürnberg, occurring with a 9% probability.
Both teams have shown strong attacking potential, with an expected goals tally of 2.24 for Nürnberg and 1.41 for Wolfsburg. The likelihood of over 2.5 goals is at 71%, and both teams scoring is estimated at 68%. Recent form favors both teams, with Nürnberg unbeaten in their last six matches and Wolfsburg also performing well with four wins in their last six outings.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
1. FC Nürnberg and Wolfsburg expected goals
Total expected goals: 3.66
1. FC Nürnberg and Wolfsburg attack and defence ratings
1. FC Nürnberg
Wolfsburg
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Matchday 7 fixtures
- FC Heidenheim vs 1. FC Kaiserslautern — team news & stats
- Eintracht Braunschweig vs Holstein Kiel — team news & stats
- 1. FC Magdeburg v Hannover 96 — match page
- Darmstadt vs Energie Cottbus
- VfL Osnabrück vs Dynamo Dresden
- Hertha BSC v SpVgg Greuther Fürth — match page
- Bochum vs Arminia Bielefeld
- St. Pauli v Karlsruher SC — match page
Before and after this match
1. FC Nürnberg vs Wolfsburg markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | 1. FC Nürnberg | 42.3% | 2.36 | +17.7% | 2.55 |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 70.5% | 1.42 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 68.3% | 1.46 | — | — |
| Double chance | 12 (either side) | 76.4% | 1.31 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 44.3% | 2.26 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | 1. FC Nürnberg | 42.3% |
| Draw | 23.6% | |
| Wolfsburg | 34.1% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 70.5% |
| Under 2.5 | 29.5% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 68.3% |
| No | 31.7% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 65.9% |
| 12 (either side) | 76.4% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 57.7% | |
| Handicap -1 | 1. FC Nürnberg win | 35.1% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 20.5% | |
| Loss | 44.3% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 2-1 | 9.2% |
| 1-1 | 9.0% | |
| 3-1 | 6.9% |
1. FC Nürnberg vs Wolfsburg stats
1. FC Nürnberg and Wolfsburg recent form
| 1. FC Nürnberg |
WWDWDW |
| Wolfsburg |
WLDWDW |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
1. FC Nürnberg and Wolfsburg season so far
1. FC Nürnberg record
- They have won 5 of their 6 league games this season, scoring 2.7 goals per match.
- They average 3.0 goals per game at home against 2.3 on the road.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
- 31% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Wolfsburg record
- They have won 3 of their 6 league games this season, scoring 2.5 goals per match.
- They average 3.0 goals per game at home against 2.0 on the road.
- 50% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
1. FC Nürnberg vs Wolfsburg head-to-head
Last 10 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2019-05-04 | Wolfsburg | 1. FC Nürnberg | Bundesliga | 2-0 |
| 2018-12-14 | 1. FC Nürnberg | Wolfsburg | Bundesliga | 0-2 |
| 2017-12-19 | 1. FC Nürnberg | Wolfsburg | DFB Pokal | 0-2 |
| 2014-04-12 | Wolfsburg | 1. FC Nürnberg | Bundesliga | 4-1 |
| 2013-11-23 | 1. FC Nürnberg | Wolfsburg | Bundesliga | 1-1 |
| 2013-03-31 | Wolfsburg | 1. FC Nürnberg | Bundesliga | 2-2 |
| 2012-11-03 | 1. FC Nürnberg | Wolfsburg | Bundesliga | 1-0 |
| 2012-03-17 | 1. FC Nürnberg | Wolfsburg | Bundesliga | 1-3 |
| 2011-10-15 | Wolfsburg | 1. FC Nürnberg | Bundesliga | 2-1 |
| 2011-03-12 | Wolfsburg | 1. FC Nürnberg | Bundesliga | 1-2 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
1. FC Nürnberg vs Wolfsburg odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 37.9%, draw 24.3%, away 37.9%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 2.45 | 3.88 | 2.44 |
| Bet365 | 2.45 | 3.80 | 2.45 |
| BetVictor | 2.40 | 3.80 | 2.45 |
| Betano | 2.52 | 3.85 | 2.52 |
| Betfair | 2.45 | 4.00 | 2.45 |
| Dafabet | 2.50 | 3.85 | 2.55 |
| Marathonbet | 2.45 | 3.88 | 2.44 |
| Pinnacle | 2.55 | 3.71 | 2.58 |
| SBO | 2.30 | 3.48 | 2.34 |
| William Hill | 2.50 | 3.50 | 2.45 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
12 snapshots recorded, from .