Garuda Lions
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2. Bundesliga · Full time ·Matchday 7

1. FC Nürnberg vs Wolfsburg

4 – 4 Full time

12′Hauke Wahl
20′Mohamed Alì Zoma
29′Muhammed Damar
52′Piet Scobel
59′Piet Scobel
62′Yannick GerhardtElvis Rexhbecaj
62′Hauke Wahl
63′Tim janischGiannis Masouras
63′Rayan GhriebRafael Lubach
63′Mohamed Alì Zoma
75′Alexander BernhardssonAlessio Besio
75′Fabian ReeseKento Shiogai
76′Mathys Angély
79′Vinicius de Souza CostaMaximilian Arnold
81′Julian JustvanWilliam Bøving
81′Eric Porstnerandrea ceresoli
86′Kento Shiogai
87′Alexios Kalogeropoulos
90′Alessio Besio
90′Giannis Masouras
90′Giannis Masouras
90′Mohamed Alì ZomaSigurd Haugen
90′Alessio Besio

Max-Morlock-Stadion, NurembergReferee: Lars Erbst

1. FC Nürnberg 43%
Draw 23%
Wolfsburg 34%

Confidence: Low  ·  blended with market odds

Match stats

21 Shots 22
8 Shots on target 9
54 Possession % 46
6 Corners 6
10 Fouls 24
4 Offsides 1
5 Saves 4
355 Accurate passes 343

1. FC Nürnberg vs Wolfsburg overview

Garuda Lions analysis: 1. FC Nürnberg vs Wolfsburg

model vs market on the 1X2
Probability1. FC NürnbergDrawWolfsburg
Model55.9%21.6%22.5%
Market38.6%23.9%37.5%
Final42.9%23.3%33.7%
Edge+4.3%-0.6%-3.8%

Confidence: Low · Edge = Final minus Market

Why 1. FC Nürnberg

  • Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.26 vs 1.40.
  • Better recent form: 4 wins in the last 6 vs 3 for the opposition.
  • The market prices 1. FC Nürnberg below our published probability: +4.3 percentage points of edge.

Scoreline probability

model grid

Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.

1. FC Nürnberg ↓ / Wolfsburg → 0 1 2 3 4+ 0 1 5% 9% 6% 2 7% 9% 6% 3 5% 7% 5% 4+ 5% 7% 5%

Goal probability

Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.

1+ goals 97%
2+ goals 89%
3+ goals 71%
No goals 3%

1. FC Nürnberg and Wolfsburg expected goals

1. FC Nürnberg 2.26
Wolfsburg 1.40

Total expected goals: 3.66

1. FC Nürnberg and Wolfsburg attack and defence ratings

1. FC Nürnberg

Attack 1.31 +31%
Defence 0.76 -24%

Wolfsburg

Attack 1.39 +39%
Defence 1.05 +5%

Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.

1. FC Nürnberg vs Wolfsburg: result vs prediction

1. FC Nürnberg 4 – 4 Wolfsburg

MarketOutcome
1X2 pick✗ Incorrect
Over/Under 2.5 pick✓ Correct
BTTS pick✓ Correct

Other Matchday 7 fixtures

2. Bundesliga

Before and after this match

1. FC Nürnberg vs Wolfsburg markets

Best value

the model's strongest selection per market
MarketModel pickProbabilityFair oddsEdgeBest price
1X2 1. FC Nürnberg 42.9% 2.33 +4.3% —
Over/Under 2.5 Over 2.5 70.7% 1.41 — —
Both teams to score Yes 68.3% 1.46 — —
Double chance 12 (either side) 76.7% 1.30 — —
Handicap -1 Loss 44.1% 2.27 — —

Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.

All probabilities

all probabilities from one model grid
MarketSelectionProbability
1X21. FC Nürnberg42.9%
Draw23.3%
Wolfsburg33.7%
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.570.7%
Under 2.529.3%
Both teams to scoreYes68.3%
No31.7%
Double chance1X (home or draw)66.3%
12 (either side)76.7%
X2 (draw or away)57.1%
Handicap -11. FC Nürnberg win35.4%
Push (exactly one goal)20.6%
Loss44.1%
Correct score (top 3)2-19.2%
1-19.0%
3-16.9%

1. FC Nürnberg vs Wolfsburg stats

1. FC Nürnberg and Wolfsburg recent form

newest first
1. FC Nürnberg WWDWDW
Wolfsburg WLDWDW

W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.

1. FC Nürnberg and Wolfsburg going into this match

league record before kick-off

1. FC Nürnberg record

  • They have won 5 of their 6 league games this season, scoring 2.7 goals per match.
  • They average 3.0 goals per game at home against 2.3 on the road.
  • Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
  • 31% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.

Wolfsburg record

  • They have won 3 of their 6 league games this season, scoring 2.5 goals per match.
  • They average 3.0 goals per game at home against 2.0 on the road.
  • 50% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.

1. FC Nürnberg vs Wolfsburg head-to-head

Last 10 meetings

21. FC Nürnberg wins 2Draws 6Wolfsburg wins
DateHomeAwayCompetitionScore
2019-05-04Wolfsburg1. FC NürnbergBundesliga2-0
2018-12-141. FC NürnbergWolfsburgBundesliga0-2
2017-12-191. FC NürnbergWolfsburgDFB Pokal0-2
2014-04-12Wolfsburg1. FC NürnbergBundesliga4-1
2013-11-231. FC NürnbergWolfsburgBundesliga1-1
2013-03-31Wolfsburg1. FC NürnbergBundesliga2-2
2012-11-031. FC NürnbergWolfsburgBundesliga1-0
2012-03-171. FC NürnbergWolfsburgBundesliga1-3
2011-10-15Wolfsburg1. FC NürnbergBundesliga2-1
2011-03-12Wolfsburg1. FC NürnbergBundesliga1-2

League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.

1. FC Nürnberg vs Wolfsburg odds

Odds comparison

latest snapshot per book

Median de-vigged market: home 38.6%, draw 24.0%, away 37.3%.

Bookmaker1X2
1xBet 2.40 3.94 2.47
Bet365 2.30 3.80 2.55
BetVictor 2.38 3.90 2.50
Betano 2.45 3.80 2.65
Betfair 2.40 4.00 2.40
Dafabet 2.50 3.85 2.55
Marathonbet 2.40 3.94 2.47
Pinnacle 2.48 3.87 2.69
SBO 2.31 3.72 2.46
William Hill 2.40 3.70 2.45

Odds movement

Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.

1 2.40 ▼ -0.04
X 3.87 ▲ +0.02
2 2.47 ▲ +0.03

14 snapshots recorded, from .