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2. Bundesliga · Full time ·Matchday 7

Darmstadt vs Energie Cottbus

3 – 1 Full time

4′Justin Butler
36′Noah Weisshaupt
45′Christian Kinsombi
45′Christian KinsombiLucas Copado
55′Axel Borgmannfousseny doumbia
62′Milan Smit
63′Justin Butler
64′Nicolas VerkooijenHiroki Akiyama
65′Lee Ho-JaeLance Duijvestijn
69′Leonardo BittencourtDominik Pelivan
69′Moritz HannemannDmytro Bogdanov
74′Marco RichterFynn-Luca Lakenmacher
74′William MikelbrencisYannik Luhrs
77′Aleksandar Vukotić
80′Noah Weisshaupt
80′Tolcay Cigerci
81′Lukas MichelbrinkJannis Boziaris
85′Lance Duijvestijn
88′Yannik Luhrs
90′Noah WeisshauptYosuke Furukawa

Merck-Stadion am Böllenfalltor, DarmstadtReferee: Justin Joel Hasmann

Darmstadt 37%
Draw 23%
Energie Cottbus 39%

Confidence: Low  ·  blended with market odds

Match stats

16 Shots 10
7 Shots on target 6
43 Possession % 57
7 Corners 8
12 Fouls 10
1 Offsides 2
5 Saves 4
273 Accurate passes 390

Darmstadt vs Energie Cottbus overview

Garuda Lions analysis: Darmstadt vs Energie Cottbus

model vs market on the 1X2
ProbabilityDarmstadtDrawEnergie Cottbus
Model22.1%21.7%56.2%
Market42.4%24.1%33.5%
Final37.4%23.5%39.2%
Edge-5.1%-0.6%+5.7%

Confidence: Low · Edge = Final minus Market

Why Energie Cottbus

  • Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.24 vs 1.37.
  • The market prices Energie Cottbus below our published probability: +5.7 percentage points of edge.

Scoreline probability

model grid

Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.

Darmstadt ↓ / Energie Cottbu → 0 1 2 3 4+ 0 5% 7% 5% 5% 1 9% 9% 7% 7% 2 6% 6% 5% 3 4+

Goal probability

Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.

1+ goals 96%
2+ goals 88%
3+ goals 70%
No goals 4%

Darmstadt and Energie Cottbus expected goals

Darmstadt 1.37
Energie Cottbus 2.24

Total expected goals: 3.62

Darmstadt and Energie Cottbus attack and defence ratings

Darmstadt

Attack 0.77 -23%
Defence 1.32 +32%

Energie Cottbus

Attack 1.28 +28%
Defence 1.09 +9%

Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.

Darmstadt vs Energie Cottbus: result vs prediction

Darmstadt 3 – 1 Energie Cottbus

MarketOutcome
1X2 pick✗ Incorrect
Over/Under 2.5 pick✓ Correct
BTTS pick✓ Correct

Other Matchday 7 fixtures

2. Bundesliga

Before and after this match

Darmstadt vs Energie Cottbus markets

Best value

the model's strongest selection per market
MarketModel pickProbabilityFair oddsEdgeBest price
1X2 Energie Cottbus 39.2% 2.55 +5.7% —
Over/Under 2.5 Over 2.5 70.0% 1.43 — —
Both teams to score Yes 67.6% 1.48 — —
Double chance 12 (either side) 76.5% 1.31 — —
Handicap -1 Loss 43.8% 2.28 — —

Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.

All probabilities

all probabilities from one model grid
MarketSelectionProbability
1X2Darmstadt37.4%
Draw23.5%
Energie Cottbus39.2%
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.570.0%
Under 2.530.0%
Both teams to scoreYes67.6%
No32.4%
Double chance1X (home or draw)60.8%
12 (either side)76.5%
X2 (draw or away)62.6%
Handicap -1Energie Cottbus win35.5%
Push (exactly one goal)20.7%
Loss43.8%
Correct score (top 3)1-29.3%
1-19.1%
1-36.9%

Darmstadt vs Energie Cottbus stats

Darmstadt and Energie Cottbus recent form

newest first
Darmstadt LWLLWL
Energie Cottbus DWDLLL

W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.

Darmstadt and Energie Cottbus going into this match

league record before kick-off

Darmstadt record

  • They have won 1 of their 6 league games this season, scoring 0.8 goals per match.
  • They average 1.3 goals per game at home against 0.3 on the road.
  • They have failed to score in 3 of 6 matches.

Energie Cottbus record

  • They have won 2 of their 6 league games this season, scoring 2.3 goals per match.
  • 50% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.

Darmstadt vs Energie Cottbus head-to-head

No recent meetings on record

Our head-to-head history covers these clubs' top-flight matches from 2014 onwards — these two simply haven't crossed paths in that window (newly promoted sides and cross-division pairings are the usual reason). The prediction doesn't rely on H2H: it is built from each team's current expected-goals ratings.

Darmstadt vs Energie Cottbus odds

Odds comparison

latest snapshot per book

Median de-vigged market: home 42.4%, draw 24.1%, away 33.5%.

Bookmaker1X2
1xBet 2.24 3.92 2.72
Bet365 2.20 3.60 2.88
BetVictor 2.15 3.90 2.80
Betano 2.25 3.85 2.92
Betfair 2.15 4.00 2.80
Dafabet 2.25 3.90 2.85
Marathonbet 2.22 3.92 2.71
Pinnacle 2.22 4.07 2.96
SBO 2.18 3.37 2.54
William Hill 2.15 3.75 2.80

Odds movement

Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.

1 2.21 ▲ +0.06
X 3.90 ▼ -0.01
2 2.80 ▼ -0.06

13 snapshots recorded, from .