2. Bundesliga · 2026-09-20T11:30:00Z UTC Full time ·Matchday 6

Energie Cottbus vs St. Pauli

1 – 1 Full time

17′			Tomoya Ando
21′			Tomoya Ando
29′			Youssoupha NiangLars Ritzka
37′			Justin Butler
57′			Axel Borgmann
57′			Abdoulie CeesayMartijn Kaars
60′			Arkadiusz Pyrka
62′			Leonardo BittencourtDominik Pelivan
62′			Lucas CopadoChristian Kinsombi
74′			Joel Chima FujitaTaichi Hara
75′			Mathias RasmussenRicky-Jade Jones
77′			marcel lotka
77′			David Nemeth
79′			Tolcay CigerciDmytro Bogdanov
79′			Lukas Michelbrinkfousseny doumbia
80′			Martijn Kaars

Stadion der Freundschaft, CottbusReferee: Michael Bacher

Energie Cottbus

40%

Draw

23%

St. Pauli

37%

Confidence: Low · blended with market odds

Match stats

14	Shots	7
5	Shots on target	2
69	Possession %	31
9	Corners	3
13	Fouls	7
3	Offsides	4
1	Saves	4
560	Accurate passes	210

Energie Cottbus vs St. Pauli overview

Garuda Lions analysis: Energie Cottbus vs St. Pauli

model vs market on the 1X2

Probability	Energie Cottbus	Draw	St. Pauli
Model	66.9%	18.8%	14.3%
Market	31.0%	24.6%	44.5%
Final	40.0%	23.1%	36.9%
Edge	+36.0%	-5.8%	-30.1%

Confidence: Low

Why Energie Cottbus

Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.51 vs 1.12.
Better recent form: 2 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.
The market prices Energie Cottbus below the model: +36.0 percentage points of edge.

Scoreline probability

model grid

Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.

Goal probability

Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.

1+ goals

97%

2+ goals

88%

3+ goals

70%

No goals

Energie Cottbus and St. Pauli expected goals

Energie Cottbus

2.51

St. Pauli

1.12

Total expected goals: 3.63

Energie Cottbus and St. Pauli attack and defence ratings

Energie Cottbus

Attack

1.33 +33%

Defence

1.12 +12%

St. Pauli

Attack

0.75 -25%

Defence

1.15 +15%

Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.

Energie Cottbus vs St. Pauli: result vs prediction

Energie Cottbus 1 – 1 St. Pauli

Market	Outcome
1X2 pick	✗ Incorrect
Over/Under 2.5 pick	✗ Incorrect
BTTS pick	✓ Correct

Other Matchday 6 fixtures

2. Bundesliga

Wolfsburg v Darmstadt — match page · 2026-09-18
SpVgg Greuther Fürth vs 1. FC Magdeburg — team news & stats · 2026-09-18
Holstein Kiel vs VfL Osnabrück · 2026-09-19
1. FC Kaiserslautern v Eintracht Braunschweig — match page · 2026-09-19
Karlsruher SC vs 1. FC Nürnberg — team news & stats · 2026-09-19
Dynamo Dresden vs Hertha BSC · 2026-09-19
Hannover 96 v Bochum — match page · 2026-09-20
Arminia Bielefeld vs FC Heidenheim — team news & stats · 2026-09-20

Before and after this match

Energie Cottbus, previous: Karlsruher SC v Energie Cottbus analysis
Energie Cottbus, next: Darmstadt v Energie Cottbus analysis
St. Pauli, previous: St. Pauli vs Wolfsburg prediction
St. Pauli, next: St. Pauli vs Karlsruher SC: odds and pick

Energie Cottbus vs St. Pauli markets

Best value

the model's strongest selection per market

Market	Model pick	Probability	Fair odds	Edge	Best price
1X2	Energie Cottbus	40.0%	2.50	+36.0%	—
Over/Under 2.5	Over 2.5	70.3%	1.42	—	—
Both teams to score	Yes	62.6%	1.60	—	—
Double chance	12 (either side)	76.9%	1.30	—	—
Handicap -1	Energie Cottbus win	46.1%	2.17	—	—

Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.

All probabilities

all probabilities from one model grid

Market	Selection	Probability
1X2	Energie Cottbus	40.0%
	Draw	23.1%
	St. Pauli	36.9%
Over/Under 2.5	Over 2.5	70.3%
	Under 2.5	29.7%
Both teams to score	Yes	62.6%
	No	37.4%
Double chance	1X (home or draw)	63.1%
	12 (either side)	76.9%
	X2 (draw or away)	60.0%
Handicap -1	Energie Cottbus win	46.1%
	Push (exactly one goal)	20.8%
	Loss	33.1%
Correct score (top 3)	2-1	9.4%
	2-0	8.4%
	1-1	8.2%

Energie Cottbus vs St. Pauli stats

Energie Cottbus and St. Pauli recent form

newest first

Energie Cottbus	WDLLLW
St. Pauli	WDLLDD

W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.

Energie Cottbus and St. Pauli going into this match

league record before kick-off

Energie Cottbus record

They have won 2 of their 5 league games this season, scoring 2.6 goals per match.
50% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.

St. Pauli record

They have won 1 of their 5 league games this season, scoring 1.4 goals per match.

Energie Cottbus vs St. Pauli head-to-head

Last 6 meetings

1Energie Cottbus wins 3Draws 2St. Pauli wins

Date	Home	Away	Competition	Score
2014-04-17	Energie Cottbus	St. Pauli	2. Bundesliga	1-1
2013-11-11	St. Pauli	Energie Cottbus	2. Bundesliga	3-0
2013-02-03	St. Pauli	Energie Cottbus	2. Bundesliga	0-0
2012-08-25	Energie Cottbus	St. Pauli	2. Bundesliga	2-0
2012-03-25	St. Pauli	Energie Cottbus	2. Bundesliga	0-0
2011-10-01	Energie Cottbus	St. Pauli	2. Bundesliga	1-4

League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.

Energie Cottbus vs St. Pauli odds

Odds comparison

latest snapshot per book

Median de-vigged market: home 31.0%, draw 24.6%, away 44.5%.

Bookmaker	1	X	2
1xBet	3.06	3.78	2.09
Bet365	3.00	3.70	2.10
BetVictor	3.00	3.90	2.05
Betano	3.10	3.80	2.15
Betfair	2.90	4.00	2.10
Marathonbet	3.05	3.78	2.07
Pinnacle	3.09	4.03	2.16
SBO	2.69	3.35	2.08
William Hill	2.90	3.70	2.05

Odds movement

Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.

1 3.00 ▼ -0.20

X 3.78 —

2 2.09 ▲ +0.06

9 snapshots recorded, from 2026-09-16T08:10:02Z.