2. Bundesliga · 2026-09-12T18:30:00Z UTC Full time ·Matchday 5

St. Pauli vs Wolfsburg

1 – 0 Full time

4′			Lars Ritzka
12′			Cleiton Santana dos Santos
32′			Abdoulie Ceesay
65′			Muhammed DamarBence Dárdai
65′			Cleiton Santana dos SantosJonas Adjetey
67′			Lars RitzkaAdam Dźwigała
70′			Youssoupha NiangMartijn Kaars
74′			Kento ShiogaiYannick Gerhardt
74′			Mattias SvanbergMaximilian Arnold
78′			Tobias Strobl
82′			Alexander BernhardssonAlessio Besio
85′			Joakim Maehle
88′			Joel Chima Fujita
90′			Abdoulie CeesayTaichi Hara
90′			Connor MetcalfeSamuel Klein

Millerntor-Stadion, HamburgReferee: Sören Storks, Germany

St. Pauli

35%

Draw

25%

Wolfsburg

40%

Confidence: Low · blended with market odds

Match stats

18	Shots	10
4	Shots on target	2
40	Possession %	60
10	Corners	4
12	Fouls	8
6	Offsides	0
2	Saves	3
262	Accurate passes	446

St. Pauli vs Wolfsburg overview

Garuda Lions analysis: St. Pauli vs Wolfsburg

model vs market on the 1X2

Probability	St. Pauli	Draw	Wolfsburg
Model	23.0%	22.5%	54.5%
Market	38.8%	25.6%	35.6%
Final	34.9%	24.8%	40.3%
Edge	-15.8%	-3.1%	+18.9%

Confidence: Low

Why Wolfsburg

Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.14 vs 1.35.
Better recent form: 3 wins in the last 6 vs 0 for the opposition.
The market prices Wolfsburg below the model: +18.9 percentage points of edge.

Scoreline probability

model grid

Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.

Goal probability

Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.

1+ goals

96%

2+ goals

87%

3+ goals

68%

No goals

St. Pauli and Wolfsburg expected goals

St. Pauli

1.35

Wolfsburg

2.14

Total expected goals: 3.49

St. Pauli and Wolfsburg attack and defence ratings

St. Pauli

Attack

0.73 -27%

Defence

1.24 +24%

Wolfsburg

Attack

1.29 +29%

Defence

1.12 +12%

Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.

St. Pauli vs Wolfsburg: result vs prediction

St. Pauli 1 – 0 Wolfsburg

Market	Outcome
1X2 pick	✗ Incorrect
Over/Under 2.5 pick	✗ Incorrect
BTTS pick	✗ Incorrect

Other Matchday 5 fixtures

2. Bundesliga

1. FC Nürnberg v Hannover 96 — match page · 2026-09-11
Darmstadt vs Arminia Bielefeld — team news & stats · 2026-09-11
Bochum vs SpVgg Greuther Fürth · 2026-09-12
1. FC Magdeburg v 1. FC Kaiserslautern — match page · 2026-09-12
Eintracht Braunschweig vs Dynamo Dresden — team news & stats · 2026-09-12
FC Heidenheim v Holstein Kiel — match page · 2026-09-13
Karlsruher SC vs Energie Cottbus — team news & stats · 2026-09-13
VfL Osnabrück vs Hertha BSC · 2026-09-13

Before and after this match

St. Pauli, previous: Arminia Bielefeld vs St. Pauli: odds and pick
St. Pauli, next: Energie Cottbus vs St. Pauli prediction
Wolfsburg, previous: Wolfsburg vs Energie Cottbus prediction
Wolfsburg, next: Wolfsburg vs Darmstadt prediction

St. Pauli vs Wolfsburg markets

Best value

the model's strongest selection per market

Market	Model pick	Probability	Fair odds	Edge	Best price
1X2	Wolfsburg	40.3%	2.48	+18.9%	—
Over/Under 2.5	Over 2.5	67.7%	1.48	—	—
Both teams to score	Yes	66.3%	1.51	—	—
Double chance	12 (either side)	75.2%	1.33	—	—
Handicap -1	Loss	45.5%	2.20	—	—

Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.

All probabilities

all probabilities from one model grid

Market	Selection	Probability
1X2	St. Pauli	34.9%
	Draw	24.8%
	Wolfsburg	40.3%
Over/Under 2.5	Over 2.5	67.7%
	Under 2.5	32.3%
Both teams to score	Yes	66.3%
	No	33.7%
Double chance	1X (home or draw)	59.7%
	12 (either side)	75.2%
	X2 (draw or away)	65.1%
Handicap -1	Wolfsburg win	33.6%
	Push (exactly one goal)	20.9%
	Loss	45.5%
Correct score (top 3)	1-1	9.7%
	1-2	9.4%
	0-2	7.0%

St. Pauli vs Wolfsburg stats

St. Pauli and Wolfsburg recent form

newest first

St. Pauli	DLLDDL
Wolfsburg	DWDWDW

W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.

St. Pauli vs Wolfsburg head-to-head

Last 6 meetings

0St. Pauli wins 4Draws 2Wolfsburg wins

Date	Home	Away	Competition	Score
2026-05-16	St. Pauli	Wolfsburg	Bundesliga	1-3
2026-01-14	Wolfsburg	St. Pauli	Bundesliga	2-1
2025-03-08	Wolfsburg	St. Pauli	Bundesliga	1-1
2024-10-26	St. Pauli	Wolfsburg	Bundesliga	0-0
2011-04-16	Wolfsburg	St. Pauli	Bundesliga	2-2
2010-11-21	St. Pauli	Wolfsburg	Bundesliga	1-1

League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.

St. Pauli vs Wolfsburg odds

Odds comparison

latest snapshot per book

Median de-vigged market: home 38.8%, draw 25.6%, away 35.6%.

Bookmaker	1	X	2
1xBet	2.40	3.64	2.62
Bet365	2.38	3.60	2.62
BetVictor	2.38	3.70	2.60
Betano	2.42	3.70	2.70
Betfair	2.40	3.70	2.63
Marathonbet	2.40	3.64	2.62
Pinnacle	2.46	3.87	2.71
SBO	2.33	3.45	2.56
William Hill	2.30	3.50	2.62

Odds movement

Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.

1 2.40 ▼ -0.30

X 3.64 ▲ +0.04

2 2.62 ▲ +0.29

14 snapshots recorded, from 2026-09-06T08:10:02Z.