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2. Bundesliga · Full time ·Matchday 5

FC Heidenheim vs Holstein Kiel

1 – 0 Full time

38′Jonas Torrissen Therkelsen
45′Mathias HonsakMikkel Kaufmann
45′Oualid MhamdiChristian Conteh
50′Jonas Torrissen Therkelsen
57′Guillermo BalziNoah Madsen
76′Adrian KapralikGyan de Regt
76′Julian niehuesYannik Wagner
76′Leon ParduziJohn Tolkin
81′Alessandro VogtTim Siersleben
81′Marcel CostlyPaul Hennrich
83′Ikem UgohTill Wiese
83′Jonas Föhrenbach
86′Mikkel Kaufmann

Voith-Arena, HeidenheimReferee: Justin Joel Hasmann, Germany

FC Heidenheim 44%
Draw 24%
Holstein Kiel 32%

Confidence: Low  ·  blended with market odds

Match stats

19 Shots 13
4 Shots on target 2
51 Possession % 49
6 Corners 8
11 Fouls 12
4 Offsides 1
3 Saves 3
294 Accurate passes 288

FC Heidenheim vs Holstein Kiel overview

Garuda Lions analysis: FC Heidenheim vs Holstein Kiel

model vs market on the 1X2
ProbabilityFC HeidenheimDrawHolstein Kiel
Model44.7%21.5%33.8%
Market44.2%24.8%31.0%
Final44.3%24.0%31.7%
Edge+0.5%-3.3%+2.8%

Confidence: Low

Why FC Heidenheim

  • Better recent form: 3 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.

Scoreline probability

model grid

Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.

FC Heidenheim ↓ / Holstein Kiel → 0 1 2 3 4+ 0 1 7% 7% 4% 2 4% 8% 7% 5% 3 6% 5% 4+ 5% 5%

Goal probability

Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.

1+ goals 98%
2+ goals 92%
3+ goals 78%
No goals 2%

FC Heidenheim and Holstein Kiel expected goals

FC Heidenheim 2.21
Holstein Kiel 1.92

Total expected goals: 4.14

FC Heidenheim and Holstein Kiel attack and defence ratings

FC Heidenheim

Attack 1.37 +37%
Defence 1.42 +42%

Holstein Kiel

Attack 1.01 +1%
Defence 0.97 -3%

Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.

FC Heidenheim vs Holstein Kiel: result vs prediction

FC Heidenheim 1 – 0 Holstein Kiel

MarketOutcome
1X2 pick✓ Correct
Over/Under 2.5 pick✗ Incorrect
BTTS pick✗ Incorrect

Other Matchday 5 fixtures

2. Bundesliga

Before and after this match

FC Heidenheim vs Holstein Kiel markets

Best value

the model's strongest selection per market
MarketModel pickProbabilityFair oddsEdgeBest price
1X2 FC Heidenheim 44.3% 2.26 +0.5% —
Over/Under 2.5 Over 2.5 78.1% 1.28 — —
Both teams to score Yes 76.7% 1.30 — —
Double chance 12 (either side) 76.0% 1.32 — —
Handicap -1 Loss 55.3% 1.81 — —

Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.

All probabilities

all probabilities from one model grid
MarketSelectionProbability
1X2FC Heidenheim44.3%
Draw24.0%
Holstein Kiel31.7%
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.578.1%
Under 2.521.9%
Both teams to scoreYes76.7%
No23.3%
Double chance1X (home or draw)68.3%
12 (either side)76.0%
X2 (draw or away)55.7%
Handicap -1FC Heidenheim win26.6%
Push (exactly one goal)18.1%
Loss55.3%
Correct score (top 3)2-17.5%
1-17.5%
2-27.2%

FC Heidenheim vs Holstein Kiel stats

FC Heidenheim and Holstein Kiel recent form

newest first
FC Heidenheim WWLLWL
Holstein Kiel DLWDDL

W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.

FC Heidenheim vs Holstein Kiel head-to-head

Last 10 meetings

6FC Heidenheim wins 2Draws 2Holstein Kiel wins
DateHomeAwayCompetitionScore
2025-03-16FC HeidenheimHolstein KielBundesliga3-1
2024-11-02Holstein KielFC HeidenheimBundesliga1-0
2023-04-23FC HeidenheimHolstein Kiel2. Bundesliga3-0
2022-10-16Holstein KielFC Heidenheim2. Bundesliga3-1
2022-04-23Holstein KielFC Heidenheim2. Bundesliga1-1
2021-11-21FC HeidenheimHolstein Kiel2. Bundesliga2-1
2021-04-06FC HeidenheimHolstein Kiel2. Bundesliga1-0
2020-11-21Holstein KielFC Heidenheim2. Bundesliga2-2
2020-02-22Holstein KielFC Heidenheim2. Bundesliga0-1
2019-09-14FC HeidenheimHolstein Kiel2. Bundesliga3-0

League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.

FC Heidenheim vs Holstein Kiel odds

Odds comparison

latest snapshot per book

Median de-vigged market: home 44.6%, draw 24.9%, away 30.5%.

Bookmaker1X2
10Bet 1.95 3.75 3.40
1xBet 2.10 3.74 3.08
Bet365 2.15 3.50 3.00
BetVictor 2.10 3.75 3.00
Betano 2.10 3.90 3.15
Betfair 2.05 3.90 3.00
Dafabet 1.98 3.65 3.45
Marathonbet 2.08 3.74 3.08
Pinnacle 2.16 3.97 3.14
SBO 2.09 3.31 2.69
Unibet 2.08 3.85 3.05
William Hill 2.10 3.60 2.90

Odds movement

Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.

1 2.10 ▲ +0.05
X 3.74 ▼ -0.06
2 3.00 ▼ -0.10

13 snapshots recorded, from .