2. Bundesliga · 2026-09-11T16:30:00Z UTC Full time ·Matchday 5

Darmstadt vs Arminia Bielefeld

2 – 1 Full time

3′			Lee Ho-Jae
33′			monju thaddaus momuluh
35′			Raoul Petretta
45′			Noah Weisshaupt
48′			Kai Klefisch
57′			Marvin MehlemDavid Min
57′			Marco RichterLance Duijvestijn
59′			Marius Worl
66′			Henri Koudossou
75′			monju thaddaus momuluhLeon Jensen
76′			Lee Ho-JaeNicolas Verkooijen
82′			Noah WeisshauptYosuke Furukawa
82′			Carlo SickingerIbrahim El Kadiri
82′			Raoul PetrettaWilliam Mikelbrencis
84′			Marius WorlJoel Felix
86′			Milan Smit

Merck-Stadion am Bollenfalltor, DarmstadtReferee: Eric-Dominic Weisbach, Germany

Darmstadt

31%

Draw

26%

Arminia Bielefeld

43%

Confidence: Low · blended with market odds

Match stats

12	Shots	16
6	Shots on target	4
48	Possession %	52
4	Corners	8
17	Fouls	17
1	Offsides	3
3	Saves	4
253	Accurate passes	392

Darmstadt vs Arminia Bielefeld overview

Garuda Lions analysis: Darmstadt vs Arminia Bielefeld

model vs market on the 1X2

Probability	Darmstadt	Draw	Arminia Bielefeld
Model	29.9%	25.1%	45.0%
Market	31.3%	26.2%	42.5%
Final	31.0%	25.9%	43.1%
Edge	-1.4%	-1.0%	+2.5%

Confidence: Low

Why Arminia Bielefeld

Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.78 vs 1.42.
Better recent form: 2 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.
The market prices Arminia Bielefeld below the model: +2.5 percentage points of edge.

Scoreline probability

model grid

Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.

Goal probability

Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.

1+ goals

95%

2+ goals

84%

3+ goals

62%

No goals

Darmstadt and Arminia Bielefeld expected goals

Darmstadt

1.42

Arminia Bielefeld

1.78

Total expected goals: 3.20

Darmstadt and Arminia Bielefeld attack and defence ratings

Darmstadt

Attack

0.71 -29%

Defence

1.12 +12%

Arminia Bielefeld

Attack

1.18 +18%

Defence

1.21 +21%

Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.

Darmstadt vs Arminia Bielefeld: result vs prediction

Darmstadt 2 – 1 Arminia Bielefeld

Market	Outcome
1X2 pick	✗ Incorrect
Over/Under 2.5 pick	✓ Correct
BTTS pick	✓ Correct

Other Matchday 5 fixtures

2. Bundesliga

1. FC Nürnberg v Hannover 96 — match page · 2026-09-11
Bochum vs SpVgg Greuther Fürth · 2026-09-12
1. FC Magdeburg v 1. FC Kaiserslautern — match page · 2026-09-12
Eintracht Braunschweig vs Dynamo Dresden — team news & stats · 2026-09-12
St. Pauli vs Wolfsburg · 2026-09-12
FC Heidenheim v Holstein Kiel — match page · 2026-09-13
Karlsruher SC vs Energie Cottbus — team news & stats · 2026-09-13
VfL Osnabrück vs Hertha BSC · 2026-09-13

Before and after this match

Darmstadt, previous: 1. FC Kaiserslautern v Darmstadt analysis
Darmstadt, next: Wolfsburg vs Darmstadt prediction
Arminia Bielefeld, previous: Arminia Bielefeld vs St. Pauli: odds and pick
Arminia Bielefeld, next: Arminia Bielefeld vs FC Heidenheim: odds and pick

Darmstadt vs Arminia Bielefeld markets

Best value

the model's strongest selection per market

Market	Model pick	Probability	Fair odds	Edge	Best price
1X2	Arminia Bielefeld	43.1%	2.32	+2.5%	—
Over/Under 2.5	Over 2.5	61.9%	1.61	—	—
Both teams to score	Yes	64.0%	1.56	—	—
Double chance	12 (either side)	74.1%	1.35	—	—
Handicap -1	Loss	55.0%	1.82	—	—

Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.

All probabilities

all probabilities from one model grid

Market	Selection	Probability
1X2	Darmstadt	31.0%
	Draw	25.9%
	Arminia Bielefeld	43.1%
Over/Under 2.5	Over 2.5	61.9%
	Under 2.5	38.1%
Both teams to score	Yes	64.0%
	No	36.0%
Double chance	1X (home or draw)	56.9%
	12 (either side)	74.1%
	X2 (draw or away)	69.0%
Handicap -1	Arminia Bielefeld win	24.8%
	Push (exactly one goal)	20.2%
	Loss	55.0%
Correct score (top 3)	1-1	11.4%
	1-2	9.2%
	2-1	7.3%

Darmstadt vs Arminia Bielefeld stats

Darmstadt and Arminia Bielefeld recent form

newest first

Darmstadt	LLWLDL
Arminia Bielefeld	DLDWLW

W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.

Darmstadt vs Arminia Bielefeld head-to-head

Last 10 meetings

1Darmstadt wins 2Draws 7Arminia Bielefeld wins

Date	Home	Away	Competition	Score
2026-04-04	Arminia Bielefeld	Darmstadt	2. Bundesliga	2-1
2025-11-01	Darmstadt	Arminia Bielefeld	2. Bundesliga	2-2
2023-03-11	Arminia Bielefeld	Darmstadt	2. Bundesliga	3-1
2022-09-04	Darmstadt	Arminia Bielefeld	2. Bundesliga	1-1
2020-06-18	Arminia Bielefeld	Darmstadt	2. Bundesliga	1-0
2019-12-01	Darmstadt	Arminia Bielefeld	2. Bundesliga	1-3
2019-03-03	Arminia Bielefeld	Darmstadt	2. Bundesliga	1-0
2018-09-25	Darmstadt	Arminia Bielefeld	2. Bundesliga	1-2
2018-02-17	Arminia Bielefeld	Darmstadt	2. Bundesliga	2-0
2017-09-17	Darmstadt	Arminia Bielefeld	2. Bundesliga	4-3

League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.

Darmstadt vs Arminia Bielefeld odds

Odds comparison

latest snapshot per book

Median de-vigged market: home 33.4%, draw 25.9%, away 40.7%.

Bookmaker	1	X	2
10Bet	2.65	3.65	2.40
1xBet	2.98	3.55	2.22
888Sport	2.63	3.50	2.38
Bet365	3.00	3.60	2.20
BetVictor	2.90	3.60	2.20
Betano	2.80	3.65	2.40
Betfair	2.70	3.75	2.30
Dafabet	2.75	3.70	2.39
Marathonbet	2.99	3.55	2.19
Pinnacle	3.10	3.68	2.28
SBO	2.54	3.28	2.22
Superbet	2.77	3.65	2.40
Unibet	2.70	3.55	2.43
William Hill	2.90	3.40	2.15

Odds movement

Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.

1 2.99 ▲ +0.54

X 3.58 ▼ -0.02

2 2.20 ▼ -0.20

14 snapshots recorded, from 2026-09-05T08:10:01Z.