2. Bundesliga · 2026-09-04T16:30:00Z UTC Full time ·Matchday 4

Arminia Bielefeld vs St. Pauli

2 – 2 Full time

13′			J. Rochelt
20′			T. Hara
35′			Marvin Mehlem
46′			B. HrgotaC. Metcalfe
46′			M. KaarsA. Ceesay
47′			Tomoya Ando
51′			J. Grodowski
56′			Eric Smith
65′			A. Ceesay
66′			M. MomuluhL. Jensen
66′			J. RocheltD. Min
76′			T. HaraY. Niang
77′			M. MehlemS. Schreck
81′			M. WorlT. Wegener
81′			H. KoudossouB. Boakye
88′			Maximilian Bauer
88′			Arkadiusz Pyrka
89′			M. RasmussenS. Klein

Schüco-Arena, BielefeldReferee: Felix Prigan, Germany

Arminia Bielefeld

46%

Draw

25%

St. Pauli

29%

Confidence: Low · blended with market odds

Match stats

9	Shots	8
2	Shots on target	5
43	Possession %	57
3	Corners	5
12	Fouls	14
1	Offsides	1
3	Saves	0
386	Accurate passes	506

Arminia Bielefeld vs St. Pauli overview

Garuda Lions analysis: Arminia Bielefeld vs St. Pauli

model vs market on the 1X2

Probability	Arminia Bielefeld	Draw	St. Pauli
Model	64.6%	20.3%	15.1%
Market	40.3%	26.1%	33.7%
Final	46.3%	24.6%	29.0%
Edge	+24.4%	-5.7%	-18.6%

Confidence: Low

Why Arminia Bielefeld

Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.31 vs 1.05.
Better recent form: 2 wins in the last 6 vs 0 for the opposition.
The market prices Arminia Bielefeld below the model: +24.4 percentage points of edge.

Scoreline probability

model grid

Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.

Goal probability

Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.

1+ goals

96%

2+ goals

86%

3+ goals

65%

No goals

Arminia Bielefeld and St. Pauli expected goals

Arminia Bielefeld

2.31

St. Pauli

1.05

Total expected goals: 3.36

Arminia Bielefeld and St. Pauli attack and defence ratings

Arminia Bielefeld

Attack

1.15 +15%

Defence

1.20 +20%

St. Pauli

Attack

0.66 -34%

Defence

1.22 +22%

Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.

Arminia Bielefeld vs St. Pauli: result vs prediction

Arminia Bielefeld 2 – 2 St. Pauli

Market	Outcome
1X2 pick	✗ Incorrect
Over/Under 2.5 pick	✓ Correct
BTTS pick	✓ Correct

Other Matchday 4 fixtures

2. Bundesliga

Hannover 96 v Karlsruher SC — match page · 2026-09-04
Wolfsburg vs Energie Cottbus · 2026-09-05
Holstein Kiel v 1. FC Nürnberg — match page · 2026-09-05
1. FC Kaiserslautern vs Darmstadt — team news & stats · 2026-09-05
Dynamo Dresden vs Bochum · 2026-09-05
Hertha BSC v 1. FC Magdeburg — match page · 2026-09-06
SpVgg Greuther Fürth vs FC Heidenheim — team news & stats · 2026-09-06
VfL Osnabrück vs Eintracht Braunschweig · 2026-09-06

Before and after this match

Arminia Bielefeld, previous: 1. FC Nürnberg v Arminia Bielefeld analysis
Arminia Bielefeld, next: Darmstadt vs Arminia Bielefeld prediction
St. Pauli, previous: St. Pauli – 1. FC Kaiserslautern, 2026-08-30
St. Pauli, next: St. Pauli vs Wolfsburg prediction

Arminia Bielefeld vs St. Pauli markets

Best value

the model's strongest selection per market

Market	Model pick	Probability	Fair odds	Edge	Best price
1X2	Arminia Bielefeld	46.3%	2.16	+24.4%	—
Over/Under 2.5	Over 2.5	65.2%	1.53	—	—
Both teams to score	Yes	59.4%	1.68	—	—
Double chance	12 (either side)	75.4%	1.33	—	—
Handicap -1	Arminia Bielefeld win	42.9%	2.33	—	—

Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.

All probabilities

all probabilities from one model grid

Market	Selection	Probability
1X2	Arminia Bielefeld	46.3%
	Draw	24.6%
	St. Pauli	29.0%
Over/Under 2.5	Over 2.5	65.2%
	Under 2.5	34.8%
Both teams to score	Yes	59.4%
	No	40.6%
Double chance	1X (home or draw)	71.0%
	12 (either side)	75.4%
	X2 (draw or away)	53.7%
Handicap -1	Arminia Bielefeld win	42.9%
	Push (exactly one goal)	21.8%
	Loss	35.4%
Correct score (top 3)	2-1	9.7%
	1-1	9.3%
	2-0	9.3%

Arminia Bielefeld vs St. Pauli stats

Arminia Bielefeld and St. Pauli recent form

newest first

Arminia Bielefeld	LDWLWL
St. Pauli	LLDDLL

W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.

Arminia Bielefeld vs St. Pauli head-to-head

Last 10 meetings

2Arminia Bielefeld wins 3Draws 5St. Pauli wins

Date	Home	Away	Competition	Score
2023-04-29	St. Pauli	Arminia Bielefeld	2. Bundesliga	2-1
2022-10-22	Arminia Bielefeld	St. Pauli	2. Bundesliga	2-0
2019-12-21	St. Pauli	Arminia Bielefeld	2. Bundesliga	3-0
2019-07-29	Arminia Bielefeld	St. Pauli	2. Bundesliga	1-1
2019-04-14	St. Pauli	Arminia Bielefeld	2. Bundesliga	1-1
2018-11-04	Arminia Bielefeld	St. Pauli	2. Bundesliga	1-2
2018-05-06	St. Pauli	Arminia Bielefeld	2. Bundesliga	1-0
2017-12-01	Arminia Bielefeld	St. Pauli	2. Bundesliga	5-0
2017-02-19	Arminia Bielefeld	St. Pauli	2. Bundesliga	1-1
2016-09-10	St. Pauli	Arminia Bielefeld	2. Bundesliga	2-1

League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.

Arminia Bielefeld vs St. Pauli odds

Odds comparison

latest snapshot per book

Median de-vigged market: home 40.3%, draw 26.1%, away 33.7%.

Bookmaker	1	X	2
10Bet	2.25	3.55	2.90
1xBet	2.35	3.56	2.73
Bet365	2.25	3.40	2.75
BetVictor	2.38	3.60	2.63
Betano	2.42	3.60	2.80
Betfair	2.30	3.50	2.70
Dafabet	2.40	3.60	2.80
Marathonbet	2.35	3.58	2.72
Pinnacle	2.44	3.74	2.81
SBO	2.14	3.18	2.71
Superbet	2.25	3.55	3.10
Unibet	2.28	3.55	2.90
William Hill	2.30	3.40	2.70

Odds movement

Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.

1 2.30 ▲ +0.13

X 3.55 ▼ -0.01

2 2.75 ▼ -0.27

8 snapshots recorded, from 2026-09-01T08:10:01Z.