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2. Bundesliga · Full time ·Matchday 4

SpVgg Greuther Fürth vs FC Heidenheim

0 – 1 Full time

12′B. Zivzivadze
64′D. SrbenyO. Sillah
65′F. AdemiJordan
66′Krisztián Keresztes
73′O. MhamdiJ. Niehues
73′M. HonsakC. Conteh
79′J. DehmL. Reich
79′S. BanseA. Keller
84′K. KeresztesH. Blank
85′B. ZivzivadzeM. Zrilic
85′A. VogtM. Breunig
90′Jan Schöppner
90′FC HeidenheimT. Siersleben

Sportpark Ronhof Thomas Sommer, FürthReferee: Konrad Oldhafer, Germany

SpVgg Greuther Fürth 38%
Draw 24%
FC Heidenheim 39%

Confidence: Low  ·  blended with market odds

Match stats

14 Shots 6
5 Shots on target 5
68 Possession % 32
7 Corners 2
7 Fouls 11
0 Offsides 2
4 Saves 5
480 Accurate passes 184

SpVgg Greuther Fürth vs FC Heidenheim overview

Garuda Lions analysis: SpVgg Greuther Fürth vs FC Heidenheim

model vs market on the 1X2
ProbabilitySpVgg Greuther FürthDrawFC Heidenheim
Model53.0%18.5%28.5%
Market32.7%25.2%42.0%
Final37.8%23.5%38.6%
Edge+20.3%-6.7%-13.6%

Confidence: Low

Why FC Heidenheim

  • Better recent form: 3 wins in the last 6 vs 2 for the opposition.

Scoreline probability

model grid

Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.

SpVgg Greuther ↓ / FC Heidenheim → 0 1 2 3 4+ 0 1 5% 5% 2 6% 6% 4% 3 6% 6% 4% 4+ 8% 8% 6% 5%

Goal probability

Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.

1+ goals 99%
2+ goals 96%
3+ goals 87%
No goals 1%

SpVgg Greuther Fürth and FC Heidenheim expected goals

SpVgg Greuther Fürth 2.82
FC Heidenheim 2.11

Total expected goals: 4.93

SpVgg Greuther Fürth and FC Heidenheim attack and defence ratings

SpVgg Greuther Fürth

Attack 1.08 +8%
Defence 1.10 +10%

FC Heidenheim

Attack 1.42 +42%
Defence 1.58 +58%

Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.

SpVgg Greuther Fürth vs FC Heidenheim: result vs prediction

SpVgg Greuther Fürth 0 – 1 FC Heidenheim

MarketOutcome
1X2 pick✓ Correct
Over/Under 2.5 pick✗ Incorrect
BTTS pick✗ Incorrect

Other Matchday 4 fixtures

2. Bundesliga

Before and after this match

SpVgg Greuther Fürth vs FC Heidenheim markets

Best value

the model's strongest selection per market
MarketModel pickProbabilityFair oddsEdgeBest price
1X2 FC Heidenheim 38.6% 2.59 -13.6% —
Over/Under 2.5 Over 2.5 86.9% 1.15 — —
Both teams to score Yes 83.1% 1.20 — —
Double chance 12 (either side) 76.5% 1.31 — —
Handicap -1 Loss 71.5% 1.40 — —

Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.

All probabilities

all probabilities from one model grid
MarketSelectionProbability
1X2SpVgg Greuther Fürth37.8%
Draw23.5%
FC Heidenheim38.6%
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.586.9%
Under 2.513.1%
Both teams to scoreYes83.1%
No16.9%
Double chance1X (home or draw)61.4%
12 (either side)76.5%
X2 (draw or away)62.2%
Handicap -1FC Heidenheim win15.3%
Push (exactly one goal)13.2%
Loss71.5%
Correct score (top 3)2-26.4%
2-16.1%
3-26.0%

SpVgg Greuther Fürth vs FC Heidenheim stats

SpVgg Greuther Fürth and FC Heidenheim recent form

newest first
SpVgg Greuther Fürth WLLDWL
FC Heidenheim WLLWLW

W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.

SpVgg Greuther Fürth vs FC Heidenheim head-to-head

Last 10 meetings

3SpVgg Greuther Fürth wins 2Draws 5FC Heidenheim wins
DateHomeAwayCompetitionScore
2025-10-09FC HeidenheimSpVgg Greuther FürthFriendlies Clubs0-1
2023-10-12FC HeidenheimSpVgg Greuther FürthFriendlies Clubs0-1
2023-04-28SpVgg Greuther FürthFC Heidenheim2. Bundesliga0-2
2022-10-23FC HeidenheimSpVgg Greuther Fürth2. Bundesliga3-1
2021-04-03FC HeidenheimSpVgg Greuther Fürth2. Bundesliga0-1
2020-12-05SpVgg Greuther FürthFC Heidenheim2. Bundesliga0-1
2020-06-16SpVgg Greuther FürthFC Heidenheim2. Bundesliga0-0
2019-12-01FC HeidenheimSpVgg Greuther Fürth2. Bundesliga1-0
2019-02-22SpVgg Greuther FürthFC Heidenheim2. Bundesliga0-0
2018-09-23FC HeidenheimSpVgg Greuther Fürth2. Bundesliga2-0

League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.

SpVgg Greuther Fürth vs FC Heidenheim odds

Odds comparison

latest snapshot per book

Median de-vigged market: home 32.9%, draw 25.5%, away 41.6%.

Bookmaker1X2
10Bet 2.85 3.65 2.25
1xBet 2.86 3.70 2.24
Bet365 2.80 3.60 2.15
Betano 2.95 3.65 2.30
Betfair 2.75 3.80 2.25
Dafabet 2.90 3.70 2.29
Marathonbet 2.85 3.70 2.22
Pinnacle 2.95 3.90 2.28
SBO 2.72 3.38 2.06
Superbet 2.92 3.65 2.30
Unibet 2.75 3.75 2.30
William Hill 2.80 3.60 2.20

Odds movement

Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.

1 2.85 ▼ -0.03
X 3.70 ▲ +0.05
2 2.22 ▼ -0.03

5 snapshots recorded, from .