Energie Cottbus
vs
SpVgg Greuther Fürth
3 – 4 Full time
Energie Cottbus vs SpVgg Greuther Fürth overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Energie Cottbus vs SpVgg Greuther Fürth
| Probability | Energie Cottbus | Draw | SpVgg Greuther Fürth |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 48.1% | 26.5% | 25.4% |
| Market | 37.5% | 25.1% | 37.5% |
| Final | 40.1% | 25.4% | 34.5% |
| Edge | +10.6% | +1.4% | -12.1% |
Why Energie Cottbus
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.67 vs 1.17.
- Better recent form: 3 wins in the last 6 vs 2 for the opposition.
- The market prices Energie Cottbus below the model: +10.6 percentage points of edge.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Energie Cottbus and SpVgg Greuther Fürth expected goals
Total expected goals: 2.83
Energie Cottbus and SpVgg Greuther Fürth attack and defence ratings
Energie Cottbus
SpVgg Greuther Fürth
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Energie Cottbus vs SpVgg Greuther Fürth: result vs prediction
Energie Cottbus 3 – 4 SpVgg Greuther Fürth
| Market | Outcome |
|---|---|
| 1X2 pick | ✗ Incorrect |
| Over/Under 2.5 pick | ✓ Correct |
| BTTS pick | ✓ Correct |
Other Matchday 3 fixtures
- Bochum v VfL Osnabrück — match page
- Eintracht Braunschweig vs Hertha BSC — team news & stats
- FC Heidenheim vs Dynamo Dresden
- Karlsruher SC v Wolfsburg — match page
- 1. FC Nürnberg vs Arminia Bielefeld
- 1. FC Magdeburg v Holstein Kiel — match page
- Darmstadt vs Hannover 96 — team news & stats
- St. Pauli vs 1. FC Kaiserslautern
Before and after this match
Energie Cottbus vs SpVgg Greuther Fürth markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Energie Cottbus | 40.1% | 2.49 | +10.6% | — |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 54.0% | 1.85 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 57.1% | 1.75 | — | — |
| Double chance | 12 (either side) | 74.6% | 1.34 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 52.2% | 1.92 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Energie Cottbus | 40.1% |
| Draw | 25.4% | |
| SpVgg Greuther Fürth | 34.5% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 54.0% |
| Under 2.5 | 46.0% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 57.1% |
| No | 42.9% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 65.5% |
| 12 (either side) | 74.6% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 59.9% | |
| Handicap -1 | Energie Cottbus win | 26.0% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 21.8% | |
| Loss | 52.2% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 12.5% |
| 2-1 | 9.5% | |
| 1-0 | 8.6% |
Energie Cottbus vs SpVgg Greuther Fürth stats
Energie Cottbus and SpVgg Greuther Fürth recent form
| Energie Cottbus |
LLWWWL |
| SpVgg Greuther Fürth |
LLDWLW |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Energie Cottbus vs SpVgg Greuther Fürth head-to-head
Last 4 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2014-05-04 | Energie Cottbus | SpVgg Greuther Fürth | 2. Bundesliga | 0-6 |
| 2013-12-01 | SpVgg Greuther Fürth | Energie Cottbus | 2. Bundesliga | 1-0 |
| 2012-04-05 | SpVgg Greuther Fürth | Energie Cottbus | 2. Bundesliga | 3-0 |
| 2011-10-22 | Energie Cottbus | SpVgg Greuther Fürth | 2. Bundesliga | 0-2 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Energie Cottbus vs SpVgg Greuther Fürth odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 37.5%, draw 25.1%, away 37.5%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 10Bet | 2.50 | 3.75 | 2.50 |
| 1xBet | 2.49 | 3.74 | 2.48 |
| Bet365 | 2.50 | 3.80 | 2.50 |
| BetVictor | 2.45 | 3.70 | 2.45 |
| Betano | 2.57 | 3.75 | 2.52 |
| Betfair | 2.50 | 3.90 | 2.45 |
| Dafabet | 2.55 | 3.70 | 2.55 |
| Marathonbet | 2.49 | 3.74 | 2.48 |
| Pinnacle | 2.61 | 3.64 | 2.57 |
| SBO | 2.33 | 3.30 | 2.38 |
| Superbet | 2.57 | 3.70 | 2.57 |
| Unibet | 2.43 | 3.80 | 2.65 |
| William Hill | 2.50 | 3.40 | 2.50 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
13 snapshots recorded, from .