1. FC Magdeburg
vs
Holstein Kiel
2 – 0 Full time
1. FC Magdeburg vs Holstein Kiel overview
Garuda Lions analysis: 1. FC Magdeburg vs Holstein Kiel
| Probability | 1. FC Magdeburg | Draw | Holstein Kiel |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 48.6% | 24.0% | 27.4% |
| Market | 43.4% | 25.5% | 31.1% |
| Final | 44.7% | 25.2% | 30.2% |
| Edge | +5.2% | -1.6% | -3.6% |
Why 1. FC Magdeburg
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.91 vs 1.42.
- Better recent form: 4 wins in the last 6 vs 2 for the opposition.
- The market prices 1. FC Magdeburg below the model: +5.2 percentage points of edge.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
1. FC Magdeburg and Holstein Kiel expected goals
Total expected goals: 3.33
1. FC Magdeburg and Holstein Kiel attack and defence ratings
1. FC Magdeburg
Holstein Kiel
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
1. FC Magdeburg vs Holstein Kiel: result vs prediction
1. FC Magdeburg 2 – 0 Holstein Kiel
| Market | Outcome |
|---|---|
| 1X2 pick | ✓ Correct |
| Over/Under 2.5 pick | ✗ Incorrect |
| BTTS pick | ✗ Incorrect |
Other Matchday 3 fixtures
- Bochum v VfL Osnabrück — match page
- Eintracht Braunschweig vs Hertha BSC — team news & stats
- FC Heidenheim vs Dynamo Dresden
- Karlsruher SC v Wolfsburg — match page
- Energie Cottbus vs SpVgg Greuther Fürth — team news & stats
- 1. FC Nürnberg vs Arminia Bielefeld
- Darmstadt vs Hannover 96 — team news & stats
- St. Pauli vs 1. FC Kaiserslautern
Before and after this match
1. FC Magdeburg vs Holstein Kiel markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | 1. FC Magdeburg | 44.7% | 2.24 | +5.2% | — |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 65.3% | 1.53 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 66.0% | 1.52 | — | — |
| Double chance | 12 (either side) | 74.8% | 1.34 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 52.0% | 1.92 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | 1. FC Magdeburg | 44.7% |
| Draw | 25.2% | |
| Holstein Kiel | 30.2% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 65.3% |
| Under 2.5 | 34.7% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 66.0% |
| No | 34.0% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 69.8% |
| 12 (either side) | 74.8% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 55.3% | |
| Handicap -1 | 1. FC Magdeburg win | 27.6% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 20.4% | |
| Loss | 52.0% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 10.5% |
| 2-1 | 9.3% | |
| 1-2 | 6.8% |
1. FC Magdeburg vs Holstein Kiel stats
1. FC Magdeburg and Holstein Kiel recent form
| 1. FC Magdeburg |
WWLLWW |
| Holstein Kiel |
WDDLLW |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
1. FC Magdeburg vs Holstein Kiel head-to-head
Last 2 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-09 | Holstein Kiel | 1. FC Magdeburg | 2. Bundesliga | 1-3 |
| 2025-12-13 | 1. FC Magdeburg | Holstein Kiel | 2. Bundesliga | 3-3 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
1. FC Magdeburg vs Holstein Kiel odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 43.4%, draw 25.5%, away 31.1%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 10Bet | 2.15 | 3.65 | 3.00 |
| 1xBet | 2.13 | 3.78 | 3.00 |
| Bet365 | 2.15 | 3.50 | 3.00 |
| BetVictor | 2.15 | 3.60 | 2.90 |
| Betano | 2.22 | 3.55 | 3.10 |
| Betfair | 2.15 | 3.80 | 2.90 |
| Dafabet | 2.23 | 3.65 | 3.05 |
| Marathonbet | 2.11 | 3.78 | 3.00 |
| Pinnacle | 2.21 | 3.75 | 3.04 |
| SBO | 2.16 | 3.20 | 2.66 |
| Unibet | 2.10 | 3.75 | 3.10 |
| William Hill | 2.25 | 3.40 | 2.80 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
12 snapshots recorded, from .