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DFB Pokal · Full time ·Round of 64

TSV 1860 München vs Holstein Kiel

0 – 2 Full time

Stad. a. d. Grünwalder Str., MunichReferee: F. Weller

TSV 1860 München 14%
Draw 20%
Holstein Kiel 66%

Confidence: Low  ·  blended with market odds

TSV 1860 München vs Holstein Kiel overview

Garuda Lions analysis: TSV 1860 München vs Holstein Kiel

model vs market on the 1X2
ProbabilityTSV 1860 MünchenDrawHolstein Kiel
Model10.9%21.3%67.8%
Market15.4%19.1%65.5%
Final14.3%19.6%66.0%
Edge-4.5%+2.2%+2.3%

Confidence: Low

Why Holstein Kiel

  • Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.10 vs 0.66.
  • Better recent form: 2 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.
  • The market prices Holstein Kiel below the model: +2.3 percentage points of edge.

Scoreline probability

model grid

Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.

TSV 1860 Münch ↓ / Holstein Kiel → 0 1 2 3 4+ 0 7% 12% 14% 10% 8% 1 10% 9% 2 3 4+

Goal probability

Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.

1+ goals 93%
2+ goals 77%
3+ goals 52%
No goals 7%

TSV 1860 München and Holstein Kiel expected goals

TSV 1860 München 0.66
Holstein Kiel 2.10

Total expected goals: 2.76

TSV 1860 München and Holstein Kiel attack and defence ratings

TSV 1860 München

Attack 0.76 -24%
Defence 0.92 -8%

Holstein Kiel

Attack 0.95 -5%
Defence 0.93 -7%

Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.

TSV 1860 München vs Holstein Kiel: result vs prediction

TSV 1860 München 0 – 2 Holstein Kiel

MarketOutcome
1X2 pick✓ Correct
Over/Under 2.5 pick✗ Incorrect
BTTS pick✓ Correct

Other Round of 64 fixtures

DFB Pokal

Before and after this match

TSV 1860 München vs Holstein Kiel markets

Best value

the model's strongest selection per market
MarketModel pickProbabilityFair oddsEdgeBest price
1X2 Holstein Kiel 66.0% 1.51 +2.3% —
Over/Under 2.5 Over 2.5 52.3% 1.91 — —
Both teams to score No 54.6% 1.83 — —
Double chance X2 (draw or away) 85.7% 1.17 — —
Handicap -1 Holstein Kiel win 46.0% 2.17 — —

Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.

All probabilities

all probabilities from one model grid
MarketSelectionProbability
1X2TSV 1860 München14.3%
Draw19.6%
Holstein Kiel66.0%
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.552.3%
Under 2.547.7%
Both teams to scoreYes45.4%
No54.6%
Double chance1X (home or draw)34.0%
12 (either side)80.4%
X2 (draw or away)85.7%
Handicap -1Holstein Kiel win46.0%
Push (exactly one goal)24.0%
Loss29.9%
Correct score (top 3)0-213.3%
0-112.0%
1-110.1%

TSV 1860 München vs Holstein Kiel stats

TSV 1860 München and Holstein Kiel recent form

newest first
TSV 1860 München LLDWDD
Holstein Kiel DDLLWW

W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.

TSV 1860 München vs Holstein Kiel head-to-head

No recent meetings on record

Our head-to-head history covers these clubs' top-flight matches from 2014 onwards — these two simply haven't crossed paths in that window (newly promoted sides and cross-division pairings are the usual reason). The prediction doesn't rely on H2H: it is built from each team's current expected-goals ratings.

TSV 1860 München vs Holstein Kiel odds

Odds comparison

latest snapshot per book

Median de-vigged market: home 15.4%, draw 19.1%, away 65.5%.

Bookmaker1X2
10Bet 5.40 4.30 1.49
1xBet 5.99 5.10 1.42
888Sport 5.50 4.80 1.40
Bet365 6.50 4.50 1.44
BetVictor 6.00 4.60 1.40
Betano 6.40 5.20 1.47
Betfair 6.50 5.00 1.36
Dafabet 6.60 5.20 1.43
Marathonbet 6.00 5.10 1.41
Pinnacle 5.59 5.37 1.44
SBO 5.13 4.18 1.40
Superbet 6.10 4.90 1.41
Unibet 6.40 4.70 1.46
William Hill 5.50 4.80 1.40

Odds movement

Only one odds snapshot recorded so far — movement needs at least two.