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DFB Pokal · Full time ·Round of 64

MSV Duisburg vs SV Elversberg

1 – 3 Full time

Schauinsland-Reisen-Arena, DuisburgReferee: M. Burda

MSV Duisburg 22%
Draw 23%
SV Elversberg 55%

Confidence: Low  ·  blended with market odds

MSV Duisburg vs SV Elversberg overview

Garuda Lions analysis: MSV Duisburg vs SV Elversberg

model vs market on the 1X2
ProbabilityMSV DuisburgDrawSV Elversberg
Model14.1%20.3%65.6%
Market24.5%24.0%51.5%
Final21.9%23.1%55.0%
Edge-10.4%-3.7%+14.1%

Confidence: Low

Why SV Elversberg

  • Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.31 vs 0.96.
  • The market prices SV Elversberg below the model: +14.1 percentage points of edge.

Scoreline probability

model grid

Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.

MSV Duisburg ↓ / SV Elversberg → 0 1 2 3 4+ 0 8% 10% 8% 8% 1 9% 10% 8% 7% 2 3 4+

Goal probability

Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.

1+ goals 95%
2+ goals 85%
3+ goals 64%
No goals 5%

MSV Duisburg and SV Elversberg expected goals

MSV Duisburg 0.96
SV Elversberg 2.31

Total expected goals: 3.28

MSV Duisburg and SV Elversberg attack and defence ratings

MSV Duisburg

Attack 1.16 +16%
Defence 0.79 -21%

SV Elversberg

Attack 1.27 +27%
Defence 0.87 -13%

Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.

MSV Duisburg vs SV Elversberg: result vs prediction

MSV Duisburg 1 – 3 SV Elversberg

MarketOutcome
1X2 pick✓ Correct
Over/Under 2.5 pick✓ Correct
BTTS pick✓ Correct

Other Round of 64 fixtures

DFB Pokal

Before and after this match

MSV Duisburg vs SV Elversberg markets

Best value

the model's strongest selection per market
MarketModel pickProbabilityFair oddsEdgeBest price
1X2 SV Elversberg 55.0% 1.82 +14.1% —
Over/Under 2.5 Over 2.5 63.6% 1.57 — —
Both teams to score Yes 57.3% 1.75 — —
Double chance X2 (draw or away) 78.1% 1.28 — —
Handicap -1 SV Elversberg win 44.8% 2.23 — —

Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.

All probabilities

all probabilities from one model grid
MarketSelectionProbability
1X2MSV Duisburg21.9%
Draw23.1%
SV Elversberg55.0%
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.563.6%
Under 2.536.4%
Both teams to scoreYes57.3%
No42.7%
Double chance1X (home or draw)45.0%
12 (either side)76.9%
X2 (draw or away)78.1%
Handicap -1SV Elversberg win44.8%
Push (exactly one goal)22.0%
Loss33.3%
Correct score (top 3)0-29.9%
1-29.8%
1-19.4%

MSV Duisburg vs SV Elversberg stats

MSV Duisburg and SV Elversberg recent form

newest first
MSV Duisburg WWDDWL
SV Elversberg WLWDWL

W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.

MSV Duisburg vs SV Elversberg head-to-head

No recent meetings on record

Our head-to-head history covers these clubs' top-flight matches from 2014 onwards — these two simply haven't crossed paths in that window (newly promoted sides and cross-division pairings are the usual reason). The prediction doesn't rely on H2H: it is built from each team's current expected-goals ratings.

MSV Duisburg vs SV Elversberg odds

Odds comparison

latest snapshot per book

Median de-vigged market: home 24.5%, draw 24.0%, away 51.5%.

Bookmaker1X2
10Bet 3.40 4.00 1.82
1xBet 3.92 3.84 1.81
888Sport 3.80 3.75 1.80
Bet365 4.00 4.00 1.75
BetVictor 3.75 3.90 1.75
Betano 3.95 3.85 1.80
Betfair 3.80 4.20 1.80
Dafabet 3.95 4.00 1.86
Marathonbet 3.94 3.84 1.79
Pinnacle 4.03 3.97 1.81
SBO 3.24 3.57 1.85
Superbet 3.80 3.85 1.82
Unibet 3.75 4.00 1.84
William Hill 3.80 3.75 1.80

Odds movement

Only one odds snapshot recorded so far — movement needs at least two.