DFB Pokal
·
Full time
·Round of 64
FC Viktoria Köln
vs
1. FC Nürnberg
1 – 1 Full time
FC Viktoria Köln
17%
Draw
20%
1. FC Nürnberg
63%
FC Viktoria Köln vs 1. FC Nürnberg overview
Garuda Lions analysis: FC Viktoria Köln vs 1. FC Nürnberg
| Probability | FC Viktoria Köln | Draw | 1. FC Nürnberg |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 4.5% | 10.8% | 84.7% |
| Market | 21.5% | 22.6% | 55.8% |
| Final | 17.3% | 19.7% | 63.1% |
| Edge | -17.1% | -11.8% | +28.9% |
Why 1. FC Nürnberg
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 3.22 vs 0.67.
- Better recent form: 4 wins in the last 6 vs 2 for the opposition.
- The market prices 1. FC Nürnberg below the model: +28.9 percentage points of edge.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
1+ goals
98%
2+ goals
90%
3+ goals
75%
No goals
2%
FC Viktoria Köln and 1. FC Nürnberg expected goals
FC Viktoria Köln
0.67
1. FC Nürnberg
3.22
Total expected goals: 3.89
FC Viktoria Köln and 1. FC Nürnberg attack and defence ratings
FC Viktoria Köln
Attack
0.91 -9%
Defence
1.11 +11%
1. FC Nürnberg
Attack
1.26 +26%
Defence
0.78 -22%
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
FC Viktoria Köln vs 1. FC Nürnberg: result vs prediction
FC Viktoria Köln 1 – 1 1. FC Nürnberg
| Market | Outcome |
|---|---|
| 1X2 pick | ✗ Incorrect |
| Over/Under 2.5 pick | ✗ Incorrect |
| BTTS pick | ✗ Incorrect |
Other Round of 64 fixtures
- Preußen Münster v Karlsruher SC — match page
- Waldhof Mannheim vs 1. FC Kaiserslautern — team news & stats
- SC St. Tönis vs Eintracht Frankfurt
- Hansa Rostock v VfB Stuttgart — match page
- SV Wehen vs Bayer Leverkusen — team news & stats
- Energie Cottbus vs Augsburg
- MSV Duisburg v SV Elversberg — match page
- Erzgebirge Aue vs Hoffenheim — team news & stats
Before and after this match
FC Viktoria Köln vs 1. FC Nürnberg markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | 1. FC Nürnberg | 63.1% | 1.59 | +28.9% | — |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 74.2% | 1.35 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | No | 51.8% | 1.93 | — | — |
| Double chance | X2 (draw or away) | 82.7% | 1.21 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | 1. FC Nürnberg win | 69.1% | 1.45 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | FC Viktoria Köln | 17.3% |
| Draw | 19.7% | |
| 1. FC Nürnberg | 63.1% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 74.2% |
| Under 2.5 | 25.8% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 48.2% |
| No | 51.8% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 36.9% |
| 12 (either side) | 80.3% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 82.7% | |
| Handicap -1 | 1. FC Nürnberg win | 69.1% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 16.3% | |
| Loss | 14.5% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 0-3 | 11.2% |
| 0-2 | 10.6% | |
| 0-4 | 8.9% |
FC Viktoria Köln vs 1. FC Nürnberg stats
FC Viktoria Köln and 1. FC Nürnberg recent form
| FC Viktoria Köln |
WLDLWL |
| 1. FC Nürnberg |
WWDWDW |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
FC Viktoria Köln vs 1. FC Nürnberg head-to-head
No recent meetings on record
FC Viktoria Köln vs 1. FC Nürnberg odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 21.5%, draw 22.6%, away 55.8%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 10Bet | 4.30 | 4.00 | 1.65 |
| 1xBet | 4.29 | 4.15 | 1.69 |
| 888Sport | 4.33 | 3.90 | 1.67 |
| Bet365 | 4.50 | 4.10 | 1.67 |
| BetVictor | 4.20 | 4.00 | 1.65 |
| Betano | 4.65 | 4.15 | 1.75 |
| Betfair | 4.50 | 4.33 | 1.67 |
| Dafabet | 4.50 | 4.20 | 1.72 |
| Marathonbet | 4.33 | 4.15 | 1.67 |
| Pinnacle | 4.52 | 4.18 | 1.68 |
| SBO | 3.96 | 3.80 | 1.63 |
| Superbet | 4.30 | 4.00 | 1.69 |
| Unibet | 4.50 | 4.20 | 1.67 |
| William Hill | 4.33 | 3.90 | 1.67 |