Garuda Lions
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2. Bundesliga · Full time ·Matchday 3

1. FC Nürnberg vs Arminia Bielefeld

4 – 1 Full time

Max-Morlock-Stadion, NurembergReferee: Patrick Schwengers, Germany

1. FC Nürnberg 46%
Draw 25%
Arminia Bielefeld 29%

Confidence: Low  ·  blended with market odds

1. FC Nürnberg vs Arminia Bielefeld overview

Garuda Lions analysis: 1. FC Nürnberg vs Arminia Bielefeld

model vs market on the 1X2
Probability1. FC NürnbergDrawArminia Bielefeld
Model56.2%22.2%21.7%
Market43.1%25.9%31.0%
Final46.4%24.9%28.7%
Edge+13.1%-3.7%-9.4%

Confidence: Low

Why 1. FC Nürnberg

  • Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.13 vs 1.31.
  • Better recent form: 3 wins in the last 6 vs 2 for the opposition.
  • The market prices 1. FC Nürnberg below the model: +13.1 percentage points of edge.

Scoreline probability

model grid

Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.

1. FC Nürnberg ↓ / Arminia Bielef → 0 1 2 3 4+ 0 1 6% 10% 6% 2 7% 10% 6% 3 5% 7% 4+ 6%

Goal probability

Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.

1+ goals 96%
2+ goals 87%
3+ goals 67%
No goals 4%

1. FC Nürnberg and Arminia Bielefeld expected goals

1. FC Nürnberg 2.13
Arminia Bielefeld 1.31

Total expected goals: 3.44

1. FC Nürnberg and Arminia Bielefeld attack and defence ratings

1. FC Nürnberg

Attack 1.24 +24%
Defence 0.82 -18%

Arminia Bielefeld

Attack 1.20 +20%
Defence 1.05 +5%

Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.

1. FC Nürnberg vs Arminia Bielefeld: result vs prediction

1. FC Nürnberg 4 – 1 Arminia Bielefeld

MarketOutcome
1X2 pick✓ Correct
Over/Under 2.5 pick✓ Correct
BTTS pick✓ Correct

Other Matchday 3 fixtures

2. Bundesliga

Before and after this match

1. FC Nürnberg vs Arminia Bielefeld markets

Best value

the model's strongest selection per market
MarketModel pickProbabilityFair oddsEdgeBest price
1X2 1. FC Nürnberg 46.4% 2.16 +13.1% —
Over/Under 2.5 Over 2.5 67.5% 1.48 — —
Both teams to score Yes 65.5% 1.53 — —
Double chance 12 (either side) 75.1% 1.33 — —
Handicap -1 Loss 44.7% 2.24 — —

Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.

All probabilities

all probabilities from one model grid
MarketSelectionProbability
1X21. FC Nürnberg46.4%
Draw24.9%
Arminia Bielefeld28.7%
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.567.5%
Under 2.532.5%
Both teams to scoreYes65.5%
No34.5%
Double chance1X (home or draw)71.3%
12 (either side)75.1%
X2 (draw or away)53.6%
Handicap -11. FC Nürnberg win34.3%
Push (exactly one goal)21.1%
Loss44.7%
Correct score (top 3)1-19.6%
2-19.5%
2-07.3%

1. FC Nürnberg vs Arminia Bielefeld stats

1. FC Nürnberg and Arminia Bielefeld recent form

newest first
1. FC Nürnberg DWWDWD
Arminia Bielefeld DWLWLD

W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.

1. FC Nürnberg vs Arminia Bielefeld head-to-head

Last 2 meetings

11. FC Nürnberg wins 1Draws 0Arminia Bielefeld wins
DateHomeAwayCompetitionScore
2026-04-18Arminia Bielefeld1. FC Nürnberg2. Bundesliga1-1
2025-11-231. FC NürnbergArminia Bielefeld2. Bundesliga2-0

League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.

1. FC Nürnberg vs Arminia Bielefeld odds

Odds comparison

latest snapshot per book

Median de-vigged market: home 43.1%, draw 25.9%, away 31.0%.

Bookmaker1X2
10Bet 2.15 3.60 3.00
1xBet 2.18 3.65 2.99
Bet365 2.15 3.60 3.10
BetVictor 2.10 3.50 3.00
Betano 2.22 3.60 3.10
Betfair 2.20 3.75 2.88
Dafabet 2.22 3.60 3.10
Marathonbet 2.16 3.65 2.98
Pinnacle 2.19 3.83 3.03
SBO 2.12 3.11 2.78
Superbet 2.22 3.60 3.10
Unibet 2.16 3.60 3.05
William Hill 2.15 3.40 2.90

Odds movement

Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.

1 2.16 ▼ -0.05
X 3.60 —
2 3.00 ▲ +0.05

13 snapshots recorded, from .