SG Sonnenhof Grossaspach
vs
Arminia Bielefeld
2 – 2 Full time
SG Sonnenhof Grossaspach vs Arminia Bielefeld overview
Garuda Lions analysis: SG Sonnenhof Grossaspach vs Arminia Bielefeld
| Probability | SG Sonnenhof Grossaspach | Draw | Arminia Bielefeld |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 5.8% | 14.1% | 80.1% |
| Market | 17.0% | 20.6% | 62.4% |
| Final | 14.2% | 18.9% | 66.8% |
| Edge | -11.2% | -6.5% | +17.7% |
Why Arminia Bielefeld
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.78 vs 0.60.
- Better recent form: 3 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.
- The market prices Arminia Bielefeld below the model: +17.7 percentage points of edge.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
SG Sonnenhof Grossaspach and Arminia Bielefeld expected goals
Total expected goals: 3.38
SG Sonnenhof Grossaspach and Arminia Bielefeld attack and defence ratings
SG Sonnenhof Grossaspach
Arminia Bielefeld
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
SG Sonnenhof Grossaspach vs Arminia Bielefeld: result vs prediction
SG Sonnenhof Grossaspach 2 – 2 Arminia Bielefeld
| Market | Outcome |
|---|---|
| 1X2 pick | ✗ Incorrect |
| Over/Under 2.5 pick | ✓ Correct |
| BTTS pick | ✗ Incorrect |
Other Round of 64 fixtures
- Preußen Münster v Karlsruher SC — match page
- Waldhof Mannheim vs 1. FC Kaiserslautern — team news & stats
- SC St. Tönis vs Eintracht Frankfurt
- Hansa Rostock v VfB Stuttgart — match page
- SV Wehen vs Bayer Leverkusen — team news & stats
- Energie Cottbus vs Augsburg
- MSV Duisburg v SV Elversberg — match page
- Erzgebirge Aue vs Hoffenheim — team news & stats
Before and after this match
SG Sonnenhof Grossaspach vs Arminia Bielefeld markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Arminia Bielefeld | 66.8% | 1.50 | +17.7% | — |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 65.0% | 1.54 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | No | 55.2% | 1.81 | — | — |
| Double chance | X2 (draw or away) | 85.8% | 1.17 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Arminia Bielefeld win | 62.6% | 1.60 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | SG Sonnenhof Grossaspach | 14.2% |
| Draw | 18.9% | |
| Arminia Bielefeld | 66.8% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 65.0% |
| Under 2.5 | 35.0% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 44.8% |
| No | 55.2% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 33.2% |
| 12 (either side) | 81.1% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 85.8% | |
| Handicap -1 | Arminia Bielefeld win | 62.6% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 19.3% | |
| Loss | 18.0% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 0-2 | 12.9% |
| 0-3 | 11.6% | |
| 0-1 | 8.9% |
SG Sonnenhof Grossaspach vs Arminia Bielefeld stats
SG Sonnenhof Grossaspach and Arminia Bielefeld recent form
| SG Sonnenhof Grossaspach |
LWL |
| Arminia Bielefeld |
WLWLDW |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 3 completed matches.
SG Sonnenhof Grossaspach vs Arminia Bielefeld head-to-head
No recent meetings on record
SG Sonnenhof Grossaspach vs Arminia Bielefeld odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 17.0%, draw 20.6%, away 62.4%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 10Bet | 5.50 | 4.20 | 1.49 |
| 1xBet | 5.66 | 4.55 | 1.49 |
| 888Sport | 5.00 | 4.20 | 1.50 |
| Bet365 | 5.25 | 4.50 | 1.53 |
| BetVictor | 5.50 | 4.50 | 1.45 |
| Betano | 5.90 | 4.75 | 1.55 |
| Betfair | 5.50 | 4.60 | 1.50 |
| Dafabet | 5.40 | 4.80 | 1.54 |
| Marathonbet | 5.65 | 4.55 | 1.48 |
| Pinnacle | 5.53 | 4.77 | 1.50 |
| SBO | 4.76 | 4.14 | 1.48 |
| Superbet | 5.10 | 4.55 | 1.52 |
| Unibet | 5.60 | 4.60 | 1.50 |
| William Hill | 5.00 | 4.20 | 1.50 |