2. Bundesliga · 2026-09-05T11:00:00Z UTC Full time ·Matchday 4

Holstein Kiel vs 1. FC Nürnberg

2 – 2 Full time

12′			Adrian Kapralik
16′			David Zec
34′			Eric Porstner
36′			Guillermo Balzi
41′			Adam Markhiev
45′			Phil Harres
50′			Adrian Kapralik
56′			Piet Scobel
63′			Julian JustvanWilliam Bøving
63′			Finn Ole BeckerRafael Lubach
63′			Jonas Torrissen TherkelsenGyan de Regt
63′			John TolkinLeon Parduzi
65′			Leon Parduzi
72′			Tim janischGiannis Masouras
77′			Rafael Lubach
79′			Kasper DavidsenTayar Tasdelen
83′			Giannis Masouras
85′			Piet ScobelSigurd Haugen
85′			Mohamed Alì ZomaRayan Ghrieb

Holstein-Stadion, KielReferee: Tobias Stieler, Germany

Holstein Kiel

36%

Draw

26%

1. FC Nürnberg

37%

Confidence: Low · blended with market odds

Match stats

15	Shots	19
3	Shots on target	7
44	Possession %	56
10	Corners	8
17	Fouls	14
1	Offsides	1
4	Saves	1
261	Accurate passes	347

Holstein Kiel vs 1. FC Nürnberg overview

Garuda Lions analysis: Holstein Kiel vs 1. FC Nürnberg

model vs market on the 1X2

Probability	Holstein Kiel	Draw	1. FC Nürnberg
Model	27.9%	25.8%	46.3%
Market	39.2%	26.7%	34.1%
Final	36.4%	26.5%	37.1%
Edge	-11.3%	-0.9%	+12.2%

Confidence: Low

Why 1. FC Nürnberg

Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.72 vs 1.30.
Better recent form: 4 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.
The market prices 1. FC Nürnberg below the model: +12.2 percentage points of edge.

Scoreline probability

model grid

Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.

Goal probability

Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.

1+ goals

94%

2+ goals

82%

3+ goals

58%

No goals

Holstein Kiel and 1. FC Nürnberg expected goals

Holstein Kiel

1.30

1. FC Nürnberg

1.72

Total expected goals: 3.02

Holstein Kiel and 1. FC Nürnberg attack and defence ratings

Holstein Kiel

Attack

0.98 -2%

Defence

0.93 -7%

1. FC Nürnberg

Attack

1.38 +38%

Defence

0.81 -19%

Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.

Holstein Kiel vs 1. FC Nürnberg: result vs prediction

Holstein Kiel 2 – 2 1. FC Nürnberg

Market	Outcome
1X2 pick	✗ Incorrect
Over/Under 2.5 pick	✓ Correct
BTTS pick	✓ Correct

Other Matchday 4 fixtures

2. Bundesliga

Hannover 96 v Karlsruher SC — match page · 2026-09-04
Arminia Bielefeld vs St. Pauli — team news & stats · 2026-09-04
Wolfsburg vs Energie Cottbus · 2026-09-05
1. FC Kaiserslautern vs Darmstadt — team news & stats · 2026-09-05
Dynamo Dresden vs Bochum · 2026-09-05
Hertha BSC v 1. FC Magdeburg — match page · 2026-09-06
SpVgg Greuther Fürth vs FC Heidenheim — team news & stats · 2026-09-06
VfL Osnabrück vs Eintracht Braunschweig · 2026-09-06

Before and after this match

Holstein Kiel, previous: 1. FC Magdeburg vs Holstein Kiel: odds and pick
Holstein Kiel, next: FC Heidenheim – Holstein Kiel, 2026-09-13
1. FC Nürnberg, previous: 1. FC Nürnberg v Arminia Bielefeld analysis
1. FC Nürnberg, next: 1. FC Nürnberg vs Hannover 96: odds and pick

Holstein Kiel vs 1. FC Nürnberg markets

Best value

the model's strongest selection per market

Market	Model pick	Probability	Fair odds	Edge	Best price
1X2	1. FC Nürnberg	37.1%	2.69	+12.2%	—
Over/Under 2.5	Over 2.5	58.2%	1.72	—	—
Both teams to score	Yes	60.9%	1.64	—	—
Double chance	12 (either side)	73.5%	1.36	—	—
Handicap -1	Loss	53.7%	1.86	—	—

Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.

All probabilities

all probabilities from one model grid

Market	Selection	Probability
1X2	Holstein Kiel	36.4%
	Draw	26.5%
	1. FC Nürnberg	37.1%
Over/Under 2.5	Over 2.5	58.2%
	Under 2.5	41.8%
Both teams to score	Yes	60.9%
	No	39.1%
Double chance	1X (home or draw)	62.9%
	12 (either side)	73.5%
	X2 (draw or away)	63.6%
Handicap -1	1. FC Nürnberg win	25.4%
	Push (exactly one goal)	20.9%
	Loss	53.7%
Correct score (top 3)	1-1	12.0%
	1-2	9.4%
	0-1	7.3%

Holstein Kiel vs 1. FC Nürnberg stats

Holstein Kiel and 1. FC Nürnberg recent form

newest first

Holstein Kiel	LWDDLL
1. FC Nürnberg	WDWWDW

W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.

Holstein Kiel vs 1. FC Nürnberg head-to-head

Last 10 meetings

5Holstein Kiel wins 2Draws 31. FC Nürnberg wins

Date	Home	Away	Competition	Score
2026-03-14	Holstein Kiel	1. FC Nürnberg	2. Bundesliga	2-3
2025-10-19	1. FC Nürnberg	Holstein Kiel	2. Bundesliga	1-1
2024-04-06	1. FC Nürnberg	Holstein Kiel	2. Bundesliga	0-4
2023-10-29	Holstein Kiel	1. FC Nürnberg	2. Bundesliga	0-2
2023-04-15	Holstein Kiel	1. FC Nürnberg	2. Bundesliga	2-1
2022-10-09	1. FC Nürnberg	Holstein Kiel	2. Bundesliga	2-3
2022-05-08	Holstein Kiel	1. FC Nürnberg	2. Bundesliga	3-0
2021-12-04	1. FC Nürnberg	Holstein Kiel	2. Bundesliga	2-1
2021-04-27	1. FC Nürnberg	Holstein Kiel	2. Bundesliga	1-1
2020-12-16	Holstein Kiel	1. FC Nürnberg	2. Bundesliga	1-0

League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.

Holstein Kiel vs 1. FC Nürnberg odds

Odds comparison

latest snapshot per book

Median de-vigged market: home 39.3%, draw 26.7%, away 34.0%.

Bookmaker	1	X	2
10Bet	2.40	3.60	2.65
1xBet	2.38	3.50	2.74
Bet365	2.40	3.40	2.62
BetVictor	2.30	3.70	2.70
Betano	2.42	3.50	2.82
Betfair	2.38	3.50	2.75
Dafabet	2.40	3.60	2.80
Marathonbet	2.38	3.50	2.74
Pinnacle	2.45	3.69	2.83
SBO	2.23	3.26	2.54
Superbet	2.40	3.55	2.85
Unibet	2.38	3.55	2.75
William Hill	2.30	3.40	2.75

Odds movement

Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.

1 2.38 ▼ -0.04

X 3.50 ▲ +0.02

2 2.74 ▲ +0.04

9 snapshots recorded, from 2026-09-01T08:10:01Z.