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2. Bundesliga · Full time ·Matchday 3

FC Heidenheim vs Dynamo Dresden

5 – 3 Full time

Voith-Arena, HeidenheimReferee: Felix Bickel, Germany

FC Heidenheim 36%
Draw 24%
Dynamo Dresden 40%

Confidence: Medium  ·  blended with market odds

FC Heidenheim vs Dynamo Dresden overview

Garuda Lions analysis: FC Heidenheim vs Dynamo Dresden

model vs market on the 1X2
ProbabilityFC HeidenheimDrawDynamo Dresden
Model21.5%18.7%59.8%
Market41.5%25.7%32.9%
Final36.5%23.9%39.6%
Edge-19.9%-7.0%+26.9%

Confidence: Medium

Why Dynamo Dresden

  • Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.73 vs 1.64.
  • Better recent form: 4 wins in the last 6 vs 2 for the opposition.
  • The market prices Dynamo Dresden below the model: +26.9 percentage points of edge.

Scoreline probability

model grid

Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.

FC Heidenheim ↓ / Dynamo Dresden → 0 1 2 3 4+ 0 5% 6% 1 6% 8% 7% 9% 2 5% 6% 6% 8% 3 4+

Goal probability

Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.

1+ goals 98%
2+ goals 94%
3+ goals 81%
No goals 2%

FC Heidenheim and Dynamo Dresden expected goals

FC Heidenheim 1.64
Dynamo Dresden 2.73

Total expected goals: 4.37

FC Heidenheim and Dynamo Dresden attack and defence ratings

FC Heidenheim

Attack 1.30 +30%
Defence 1.64 +64%

Dynamo Dresden

Attack 1.27 +27%
Defence 0.78 -22%

Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.

FC Heidenheim vs Dynamo Dresden: result vs prediction

FC Heidenheim 5 – 3 Dynamo Dresden

MarketOutcome
1X2 pick✗ Incorrect
Over/Under 2.5 pick✓ Correct
BTTS pick✓ Correct

Other Matchday 3 fixtures

2. Bundesliga

Before and after this match

FC Heidenheim vs Dynamo Dresden markets

Best value

the model's strongest selection per market
MarketModel pickProbabilityFair oddsEdgeBest price
1X2 Dynamo Dresden 39.6% 2.53 +26.9% —
Over/Under 2.5 Over 2.5 81.2% 1.23 — —
Both teams to score Yes 76.1% 1.31 — —
Double chance 12 (either side) 76.1% 1.31 — —
Handicap -1 Dynamo Dresden win 41.0% 2.44 — —

Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.

All probabilities

all probabilities from one model grid
MarketSelectionProbability
1X2FC Heidenheim36.5%
Draw23.9%
Dynamo Dresden39.6%
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.581.2%
Under 2.518.8%
Both teams to scoreYes76.1%
No23.9%
Double chance1X (home or draw)60.4%
12 (either side)76.1%
X2 (draw or away)63.5%
Handicap -1Dynamo Dresden win41.0%
Push (exactly one goal)19.1%
Loss39.9%
Correct score (top 3)1-27.7%
1-37.0%
2-26.4%

FC Heidenheim vs Dynamo Dresden stats

FC Heidenheim and Dynamo Dresden recent form

newest first
FC Heidenheim LLWLWD
Dynamo Dresden WWLWLW

W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.

FC Heidenheim vs Dynamo Dresden head-to-head

Last 10 meetings

4FC Heidenheim wins 2Draws 4Dynamo Dresden wins
DateHomeAwayCompetitionScore
2022-06-29Dynamo DresdenFC HeidenheimFriendlies Clubs0-1
2022-02-18Dynamo DresdenFC Heidenheim2. Bundesliga1-1
2021-09-12FC HeidenheimDynamo Dresden2. Bundesliga2-1
2020-02-02FC HeidenheimDynamo Dresden2. Bundesliga0-0
2019-08-18Dynamo DresdenFC Heidenheim2. Bundesliga2-1
2019-02-02FC HeidenheimDynamo Dresden2. Bundesliga1-0
2018-08-26Dynamo DresdenFC Heidenheim2. Bundesliga1-3
2018-03-09Dynamo DresdenFC Heidenheim2. Bundesliga3-2
2017-10-01FC HeidenheimDynamo Dresden2. Bundesliga0-2
2017-04-05Dynamo DresdenFC Heidenheim2. Bundesliga2-1

League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.

FC Heidenheim vs Dynamo Dresden odds

Odds comparison

latest snapshot per book

Median de-vigged market: home 41.5%, draw 25.7%, away 32.9%.

Bookmaker1X2
10Bet 2.30 3.60 2.85
1xBet 2.26 3.75 2.79
Bet365 2.35 3.50 2.88
BetVictor 2.20 3.70 2.75
Betano 2.32 3.55 2.95
Betfair 2.25 3.80 2.75
Dafabet 2.34 3.65 2.85
Marathonbet 2.24 3.75 2.78
Pinnacle 2.31 3.78 2.85
SBO 2.17 3.31 2.57
Superbet 2.35 3.60 2.87
Unibet 2.25 3.75 2.85
William Hill 2.25 3.50 2.75

Odds movement

Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.

1 2.26 ▲ +0.17
X 3.65 ▼ -0.04
2 2.85 ▼ -0.23

13 snapshots recorded, from .