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3. Liga · Full time ·Matchday 3

MSV Duisburg vs Würzburger Kickers

3 – 0 Full time

Schauinsland-Reisen-Arena, DuisburgReferee: N. Rose

MSV Duisburg 59%
Draw 22%
Würzburger Kickers 19%

Confidence: Low  ·  blended with market odds

MSV Duisburg vs Würzburger Kickers overview

Garuda Lions analysis: MSV Duisburg vs Würzburger Kickers

model vs market on the 1X2
ProbabilityMSV DuisburgDrawWürzburger Kickers
Model44.5%24.3%31.2%
Market64.0%21.5%14.5%
Final59.1%22.2%18.7%
Edge-19.4%+2.8%+16.7%

Confidence: Low

Why MSV Duisburg

  • Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.86 vs 1.53.
  • Better recent form: 3 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.

Scoreline probability

model grid

Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.

MSV Duisburg ↓ / Würzburger Kic → 0 1 2 3 4+ 0 1 5% 11% 7% 2 6% 9% 7% 3 6% 4+

Goal probability

Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.

1+ goals 96%
2+ goals 86%
3+ goals 66%
No goals 4%

MSV Duisburg and Würzburger Kickers expected goals

MSV Duisburg 1.86
Würzburger Kickers 1.53

Total expected goals: 3.39

MSV Duisburg and Würzburger Kickers attack and defence ratings

MSV Duisburg

Attack 1.12 +12%
Defence 0.91 -9%

Würzburger Kickers

Attack 1.16 +16%
Defence 0.94 -6%

Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.

MSV Duisburg vs Würzburger Kickers: result vs prediction

MSV Duisburg 3 – 0 Würzburger Kickers

MarketOutcome
1X2 pick✓ Correct
Over/Under 2.5 pick✓ Correct
BTTS pick✗ Incorrect

Other Matchday 3 fixtures

3. Liga

Before and after this match

MSV Duisburg vs Würzburger Kickers markets

Best value

the model's strongest selection per market
MarketModel pickProbabilityFair oddsEdgeBest price
1X2 MSV Duisburg 59.1% 1.69 -19.4% —
Over/Under 2.5 Over 2.5 65.8% 1.52 — —
Both teams to score Yes 67.1% 1.49 — —
Double chance 1X (home or draw) 81.3% 1.23 — —
Handicap -1 Loss 55.4% 1.80 — —

Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.

All probabilities

all probabilities from one model grid
MarketSelectionProbability
1X2MSV Duisburg59.1%
Draw22.2%
Würzburger Kickers18.7%
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.565.8%
Under 2.534.2%
Both teams to scoreYes67.1%
No32.9%
Double chance1X (home or draw)81.3%
12 (either side)77.8%
X2 (draw or away)40.9%
Handicap -1MSV Duisburg win25.0%
Push (exactly one goal)19.6%
Loss55.4%
Correct score (top 3)1-110.6%
2-18.9%
1-27.4%

MSV Duisburg vs Würzburger Kickers stats

MSV Duisburg and Würzburger Kickers recent form

newest first
MSV Duisburg LWWDDW
Würzburger Kickers LWD

W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.

MSV Duisburg vs Würzburger Kickers head-to-head

Last 4 meetings

3MSV Duisburg wins 1Draws 0Würzburger Kickers wins
DateHomeAwayCompetitionScore
2022-02-12Würzburger KickersMSV Duisburg3. Liga1-2
2021-09-04MSV DuisburgWürzburger Kickers3. Liga2-0
2020-06-13MSV DuisburgWürzburger Kickers3. Liga1-1
2019-10-26Würzburger KickersMSV Duisburg3. Liga0-2

League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.

MSV Duisburg vs Würzburger Kickers odds

Odds comparison

latest snapshot per book

Median de-vigged market: home 64.0%, draw 21.5%, away 14.5%.

Bookmaker1X2
10Bet 1.44 4.33 7.25
1xBet 1.40 4.30 6.54
Bet365 1.44 3.80 6.25
Betano 1.47 4.25 6.40
Betfair 1.36 4.50 6.50
Dafabet 1.46 4.20 6.20
Marathonbet 1.39 4.30 6.30
Pinnacle 1.43 4.55 6.36
SBO 1.41 3.93 5.42
Superbet 1.46 4.25 6.00
William Hill 1.40 4.00 6.00

Odds movement

Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.

1 1.43 ▼ -0.01
X 4.25 ▼ -0.25
2 6.30 ▲ +0.85

14 snapshots recorded, from .