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3. Liga · Full time ·Matchday 4

Würzburger Kickers vs Stuttgart II

1 – 2 Full time

19′Jordan Majchrzak
21′Yanik Spalt
23′Oliver Rölke
28′Tarsis Bonga
45′Jordan MajchrzakEnis Redzepi
45′David PreuLuca Berreth
48′Tim·Kraus
51′Enis Redzepi
56′Philipp Ochs
57′Julian Lüers
64′Yanik SpaltVeit Stange
64′Joyeux Masanka Bungi Dominik Nothnagel
72′Nicolás SessaErtugrul Yigit
73′Philipp OchsN. Embaye
73′Tim·KrausXaver Kiefersauer
75′Alexander Groiss
78′Thomas KastanarasJermain Nischalke
80′Louis BreunigFranck evina
84′L. Eberleivan franjic
88′Alexander Groiss
90′Ertugrul Yigit

Flyeralarm Arena, WurzburgerReferee: T. Schulz

Würzburger Kickers 43%
Draw 25%
Stuttgart II 33%

Confidence: Low  ·  blended with market odds

Match stats

12 Shots 7
2 Shots on target 4
55 Possession % 45
6 Corners 4
14 Fouls 15
2 Offsides 2
2 Saves 1
293 Accurate passes 315

Würzburger Kickers vs Stuttgart II overview

Garuda Lions analysis: Würzburger Kickers vs Stuttgart II

model vs market on the 1X2
ProbabilityWürzburger KickersDrawStuttgart II
Model49.1%20.9%30.0%
Market40.6%25.9%33.6%
Final42.7%24.6%32.7%
Edge+8.5%-4.9%-3.6%

Confidence: Low

Why Würzburger Kickers

  • Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.36 vs 1.85.
  • The market prices Würzburger Kickers below the model: +8.5 percentage points of edge.

Scoreline probability

model grid

Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.

Würzburger Kic ↓ / Stuttgart II → 0 1 2 3 4+ 0 1 7% 6% 2 4% 8% 7% 4% 3 6% 6% 4+ 6% 6%

Goal probability

Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.

1+ goals 98%
2+ goals 93%
3+ goals 79%
No goals 2%

Würzburger Kickers and Stuttgart II expected goals

Würzburger Kickers 2.36
Stuttgart II 1.85

Total expected goals: 4.20

Würzburger Kickers and Stuttgart II attack and defence ratings

Würzburger Kickers

Attack 1.00 +0%
Defence 1.06 +6%

Stuttgart II

Attack 1.19 +19%
Defence 1.34 +34%

Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.

Würzburger Kickers vs Stuttgart II: result vs prediction

Würzburger Kickers 1 – 2 Stuttgart II

MarketOutcome
1X2 pick✗ Incorrect
Over/Under 2.5 pick✓ Correct
BTTS pick✓ Correct

Other Matchday 4 fixtures

3. Liga

Before and after this match

Würzburger Kickers vs Stuttgart II markets

Best value

the model's strongest selection per market
MarketModel pickProbabilityFair oddsEdgeBest price
1X2 Würzburger Kickers 42.7% 2.34 +8.5% —
Over/Under 2.5 Over 2.5 79.0% 1.27 — —
Both teams to score Yes 76.9% 1.30 — —
Double chance 12 (either side) 75.4% 1.33 — —
Handicap -1 Loss 50.9% 1.96 — —

Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.

All probabilities

all probabilities from one model grid
MarketSelectionProbability
1X2Würzburger Kickers42.7%
Draw24.6%
Stuttgart II32.7%
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.579.0%
Under 2.521.0%
Both teams to scoreYes76.9%
No23.1%
Double chance1X (home or draw)67.3%
12 (either side)75.4%
X2 (draw or away)57.3%
Handicap -1Würzburger Kickers win30.4%
Push (exactly one goal)18.6%
Loss50.9%
Correct score (top 3)2-17.7%
1-17.2%
2-27.1%

Würzburger Kickers vs Stuttgart II stats

Würzburger Kickers and Stuttgart II recent form

newest first
Würzburger Kickers LLWD
Stuttgart II LLWLLW

W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 4 completed matches.

Würzburger Kickers vs Stuttgart II head-to-head

Last 2 meetings

1Würzburger Kickers wins 1Draws 0Stuttgart II wins
DateHomeAwayCompetitionScore
2016-02-06Würzburger KickersStuttgart II3. Liga0-0
2015-08-25Stuttgart IIWürzburger Kickers3. Liga0-2

League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.

Würzburger Kickers vs Stuttgart II odds

Odds comparison

latest snapshot per book

Median de-vigged market: home 40.3%, draw 26.1%, away 33.7%.

Bookmaker1X2
10Bet 2.30 3.55 2.80
1xBet 2.24 3.50 2.72
Bet365 2.25 3.50 2.62
BetVictor 2.10 3.20 2.45
Betano 2.32 3.55 2.80
Betfair 2.30 3.60 2.55
Dafabet 2.33 3.60 2.70
Marathonbet 2.22 3.50 2.67
Pinnacle 2.36 3.77 2.77
SBO 2.22 3.28 2.54
Unibet 2.28 3.40 2.75
William Hill 2.20 3.40 2.75

Odds movement

Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.

1 2.23 ▼ -0.05
X 3.50 —
2 2.70 —

5 snapshots recorded, from .