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3. Liga · Full time ·Matchday 4

SSV Jahn Regensburg vs MSV Duisburg

1 – 2 Full time

25′Lex-Tyger Lobinger
30′Patrick Sussek
32′Benedikt Bauer
33′Felix Straussl
33′Can Coskun
45′Patrick SussekJan-Simon Symalla
45′Dominik KotherPeter Remmert
53′Peter Remmert
56′Lucas Hermes
59′D. Hirsch
60′Sascha Hingerl
71′Peter Remmert
72′Erik MajetschakPatrick Hobsch
73′Martin Ensniklas jessen
75′Oscar SchoenfelderMalte Karbstein
77′Malte Karbstein
78′Aljaž Casar
79′Aljaž CasarMax Besuschkow
81′Tobias Fleckstein
82′David Lennart PhilippArian Dizdarevic
82′Sascha HingerlLeo Mätzler
82′Nassim BoujellabZeteny Jano

Jahnstadion Regensburg, RegensburgReferee: R. Tanimoto

SSV Jahn Regensburg 26%
Draw 24%
MSV Duisburg 50%

Confidence: Low  ·  blended with market odds

Match stats

14 Shots 11
4 Shots on target 7
61 Possession % 39
6 Corners 5
9 Fouls 16
2 Offsides 3
5 Saves 3
526 Accurate passes 208

SSV Jahn Regensburg vs MSV Duisburg overview

Garuda Lions analysis: SSV Jahn Regensburg vs MSV Duisburg

model vs market on the 1X2
ProbabilitySSV Jahn RegensburgDrawMSV Duisburg
Model27.6%23.0%49.4%
Market24.8%24.3%50.9%
Final25.5%24.0%50.5%
Edge+2.8%-1.3%-1.5%

Confidence: Low

Why MSV Duisburg

  • Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.06 vs 1.52.
  • Better recent form: 3 wins in the last 6 vs 2 for the opposition.

Scoreline probability

model grid

Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.

SSV Jahn Regen ↓ / MSV Duisburg → 0 1 2 3 4+ 0 5% 6% 1 10% 9% 6% 5% 2 7% 7% 3 4+

Goal probability

Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.

1+ goals 96%
2+ goals 88%
3+ goals 69%
No goals 4%

SSV Jahn Regensburg and MSV Duisburg expected goals

SSV Jahn Regensburg 1.52
MSV Duisburg 2.06

Total expected goals: 3.58

SSV Jahn Regensburg and MSV Duisburg attack and defence ratings

SSV Jahn Regensburg

Attack 1.02 +2%
Defence 1.16 +16%

MSV Duisburg

Attack 1.21 +21%
Defence 0.84 -16%

Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.

SSV Jahn Regensburg vs MSV Duisburg: result vs prediction

SSV Jahn Regensburg 1 – 2 MSV Duisburg

MarketOutcome
1X2 pick✓ Correct
Over/Under 2.5 pick✓ Correct
BTTS pick✓ Correct

Other Matchday 4 fixtures

3. Liga

Before and after this match

SSV Jahn Regensburg vs MSV Duisburg markets

Best value

the model's strongest selection per market
MarketModel pickProbabilityFair oddsEdgeBest price
1X2 MSV Duisburg 50.5% 1.98 -1.5% —
Over/Under 2.5 Over 2.5 69.3% 1.44 — —
Both teams to score Yes 69.0% 1.45 — —
Double chance 12 (either side) 76.0% 1.32 — —
Handicap -1 Loss 50.6% 1.97 — —

Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.

All probabilities

all probabilities from one model grid
MarketSelectionProbability
1X2SSV Jahn Regensburg25.5%
Draw24.0%
MSV Duisburg50.5%
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.569.3%
Under 2.530.7%
Both teams to scoreYes69.0%
No31.0%
Double chance1X (home or draw)49.5%
12 (either side)76.0%
X2 (draw or away)74.5%
Handicap -1MSV Duisburg win29.4%
Push (exactly one goal)20.0%
Loss50.6%
Correct score (top 3)1-19.6%
1-29.0%
2-26.8%

SSV Jahn Regensburg vs MSV Duisburg stats

SSV Jahn Regensburg and MSV Duisburg recent form

newest first
SSV Jahn Regensburg LLWLLW
MSV Duisburg WLWWDD

W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.

SSV Jahn Regensburg vs MSV Duisburg head-to-head

Last 10 meetings

4SSV Jahn Regensburg wins 2Draws 4MSV Duisburg wins
DateHomeAwayCompetitionScore
2026-01-24MSV DuisburgSSV Jahn Regensburg3. Liga2-0
2025-08-10SSV Jahn RegensburgMSV Duisburg3. Liga0-4
2024-02-04MSV DuisburgSSV Jahn Regensburg3. Liga0-1
2023-09-03SSV Jahn RegensburgMSV Duisburg3. Liga2-1
2019-03-09SSV Jahn RegensburgMSV Duisburg2. Bundesliga1-1
2018-09-29MSV DuisburgSSV Jahn Regensburg2. Bundesliga1-3
2018-04-29MSV DuisburgSSV Jahn Regensburg2. Bundesliga4-1
2017-11-25SSV Jahn RegensburgMSV Duisburg2. Bundesliga4-0
2017-04-01MSV DuisburgSSV Jahn Regensburg3. Liga1-1
2016-10-15SSV Jahn RegensburgMSV Duisburg3. Liga1-2

League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.

SSV Jahn Regensburg vs MSV Duisburg odds

Odds comparison

latest snapshot per book

Median de-vigged market: home 26.5%, draw 24.7%, away 48.8%.

Bookmaker1X2
10Bet 3.45 3.75 1.95
1xBet 3.64 3.72 1.80
Bet365 3.70 3.70 1.75
BetVictor 3.25 3.30 1.70
Betano 3.45 3.70 1.98
Betfair 3.30 3.80 1.91
Dafabet 3.45 3.70 1.96
Marathonbet 3.64 3.78 1.75
Pinnacle 3.79 4.10 1.83
SBO 3.04 3.24 1.96
Unibet 3.20 3.65 1.98
William Hill 3.40 3.60 1.83

Odds movement

Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.

1 3.64 ▲ +0.34
X 3.71 ▲ +0.11
2 1.77 ▼ -0.18

12 snapshots recorded, from .