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3. Liga · Full time ·Matchday 5

Fortuna Düsseldorf vs MSV Duisburg

2 – 1 Full time

45′Andreas Müller
46′Peter Remmert
65′Fabian Schleusener
66′Matthias ZimmermannSteven Van Der Sloot
66′Philipp FörsterEric Hottmann
66′Sascha RischErik Wekesser
68′Fabian Schleusener
68′Patrick SussekConor Noss
71′Jan-Simon SymallaRamien Safi
76′Anas SlimaniJomaine Consbruch
84′Martin Ensniklas jessen
85′Peter RemmertMax Besuschkow
87′Eric Hottmann
89′Fabian SchleusenerLukas Bornschein

Merkur Spiel-ArenaReferee: P. Schwengers

Fortuna Düsseldorf 29%
Draw 26%
MSV Duisburg 45%

Confidence: Low  ·  blended with market odds

Match stats

8 Shots 9
5 Shots on target 3
59 Possession % 41
1 Corners 6

Fortuna Düsseldorf vs MSV Duisburg overview

Garuda Lions analysis: Fortuna Düsseldorf vs MSV Duisburg

model vs market on the 1X2
ProbabilityFortuna DüsseldorfDrawMSV Duisburg
Model16.4%24.2%59.4%
Market33.5%26.7%39.8%
Final29.2%26.1%44.7%
Edge-17.0%-2.5%+19.6%

Confidence: Low

Why MSV Duisburg

  • Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.88 vs 0.90.
  • Better recent form: 4 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.
  • The market prices MSV Duisburg below the model: +19.6 percentage points of edge.

Scoreline probability

model grid

Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.

Fortuna Düssel ↓ / MSV Duisburg → 0 1 2 3 4+ 0 7% 11% 11% 7% 1 12% 10% 6% 2 3 4+

Goal probability

Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.

1+ goals 93%
2+ goals 77%
3+ goals 52%
No goals 7%

Fortuna Düsseldorf and MSV Duisburg expected goals

Fortuna Düsseldorf 0.90
MSV Duisburg 1.88

Total expected goals: 2.77

Fortuna Düsseldorf and MSV Duisburg attack and defence ratings

Fortuna Düsseldorf

Attack 0.63 -37%
Defence 1.08 +8%

MSV Duisburg

Attack 1.19 +19%
Defence 0.82 -18%

Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.

Fortuna Düsseldorf vs MSV Duisburg: result vs prediction

Fortuna Düsseldorf 2 – 1 MSV Duisburg

MarketOutcome
1X2 pick✗ Incorrect
Over/Under 2.5 pick✓ Correct
BTTS pick✓ Correct

Other Matchday 5 fixtures

3. Liga

Before and after this match

Fortuna Düsseldorf vs MSV Duisburg markets

Best value

the model's strongest selection per market
MarketModel pickProbabilityFair oddsEdgeBest price
1X2 MSV Duisburg 44.7% 2.24 +19.6% —
Over/Under 2.5 Over 2.5 52.4% 1.91 — —
Both teams to score Yes 51.2% 1.95 — —
Double chance 12 (either side) 73.9% 1.35 — —
Handicap -1 Loss 40.6% 2.46 — —

Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.

All probabilities

all probabilities from one model grid
MarketSelectionProbability
1X2Fortuna Düsseldorf29.2%
Draw26.1%
MSV Duisburg44.7%
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.552.4%
Under 2.547.6%
Both teams to scoreYes51.2%
No48.8%
Double chance1X (home or draw)55.3%
12 (either side)73.9%
X2 (draw or away)70.8%
Handicap -1MSV Duisburg win35.7%
Push (exactly one goal)23.7%
Loss40.6%
Correct score (top 3)1-111.6%
0-211.0%
0-110.7%

Fortuna Düsseldorf vs MSV Duisburg stats

Fortuna Düsseldorf and MSV Duisburg recent form

newest first
Fortuna Düsseldorf DWLLLL
MSV Duisburg WWLWWD

W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.

Fortuna Düsseldorf vs MSV Duisburg head-to-head

Last 6 meetings

3Fortuna Düsseldorf wins 2Draws 1MSV Duisburg wins
DateHomeAwayCompetitionScore
2018-03-11MSV DuisburgFortuna Düsseldorf2. Bundesliga1-2
2017-10-02Fortuna DüsseldorfMSV Duisburg2. Bundesliga3-1
2016-04-29MSV DuisburgFortuna Düsseldorf2. Bundesliga2-1
2015-11-20Fortuna DüsseldorfMSV Duisburg2. Bundesliga1-1
2012-05-06Fortuna DüsseldorfMSV Duisburg2. Bundesliga2-2
2011-12-05MSV DuisburgFortuna Düsseldorf2. Bundesliga0-2

League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.

Fortuna Düsseldorf vs MSV Duisburg odds

Odds comparison

latest snapshot per book

Median de-vigged market: home 33.5%, draw 26.7%, away 39.8%.

Bookmaker1X2
1xBet 2.75 3.38 2.27
Bet365 2.62 3.25 2.30
BetVictor 2.50 3.00 2.15
Betano 2.80 3.40 2.37
Betfair 2.63 3.40 2.30
Marathonbet 2.70 3.38 2.25
Pinnacle 2.84 3.63 2.34
SBO 2.65 3.11 2.21
William Hill 2.70 3.30 2.25

Odds movement

Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.

1 2.70 ▲ +0.18
X 3.38 —
2 2.27 ▼ -0.13

4 snapshots recorded, from .