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3. Liga · Full time ·Matchday 5

Verl vs SV Meppen

2 – 1 Full time

44′Niclas Tibor Nadj
45′Oliver Issa Schmitt
45′Felix VoglerJanne Berner
47′Oliver Issa Schmitt
53′Tim Heike
61′Niclas Tibor NadjJona Borsum
67′Paul Lehmann
71′Mika ClausenAlmin mesanovic
71′Paul LehmannNoah König
77′Janne Berner
77′Oliver Issa SchmittCyrill Akono
77′Richard Christian·MeierJannic ehlers
83′Fabian WessigYari Otto
83′Luca PrasseSimon Engelmann
83′Tobias MissnerFlorian Bahr
83′Ersin Zehir
85′Amin FaroukAntonio Foti
90′Luis·Sprekelmeyer
90′Luis·Sprekelmeyer
90′Ersin Zehir

Sportclub Arena, VerlReferee: F. Wildfeuer

Verl 45%
Draw 25%
SV Meppen 30%

Confidence: Low  ·  blended with market odds

Match stats

17 Shots 12
9 Shots on target 4
67 Possession % 33
4 Corners 6

Verl vs SV Meppen overview

Garuda Lions analysis: Verl vs SV Meppen

model vs market on the 1X2
ProbabilityVerlDrawSV Meppen
Model48.9%24.0%27.1%
Market43.2%25.2%31.5%
Final44.7%24.9%30.4%
Edge+5.6%-1.2%-4.4%

Confidence: Low

Why Verl

  • Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.93 vs 1.41.
  • The market prices Verl below the model: +5.6 percentage points of edge.

Scoreline probability

model grid

Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.

Verl ↓ / SV Meppen → 0 1 2 3 4+ 0 1 6% 11% 7% 2 7% 9% 7% 3 6% 4+

Goal probability

Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.

1+ goals 96%
2+ goals 86%
3+ goals 65%
No goals 4%

Verl and SV Meppen expected goals

Verl 1.93
SV Meppen 1.41

Total expected goals: 3.34

Verl and SV Meppen attack and defence ratings

Verl

Attack 0.91 -9%
Defence 0.98 -2%

SV Meppen

Attack 0.98 -2%
Defence 1.21 +21%

Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.

Verl vs SV Meppen: result vs prediction

Verl 2 – 1 SV Meppen

MarketOutcome
1X2 pick✓ Correct
Over/Under 2.5 pick✓ Correct
BTTS pick✓ Correct

Other Matchday 5 fixtures

3. Liga

Before and after this match

Verl vs SV Meppen markets

Best value

the model's strongest selection per market
MarketModel pickProbabilityFair oddsEdgeBest price
1X2 Verl 44.7% 2.24 +5.6% —
Over/Under 2.5 Over 2.5 65.0% 1.54 — —
Both teams to score Yes 65.6% 1.52 — —
Double chance 12 (either side) 75.1% 1.33 — —
Handicap -1 Loss 51.1% 1.96 — —

Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.

All probabilities

all probabilities from one model grid
MarketSelectionProbability
1X2Verl44.7%
Draw24.9%
SV Meppen30.4%
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.565.0%
Under 2.535.0%
Both teams to scoreYes65.6%
No34.4%
Double chance1X (home or draw)69.6%
12 (either side)75.1%
X2 (draw or away)55.3%
Handicap -1Verl win28.4%
Push (exactly one goal)20.5%
Loss51.1%
Correct score (top 3)1-110.6%
2-19.3%
1-26.8%

Verl vs SV Meppen stats

Verl and SV Meppen recent form

newest first
Verl WLLLLW
SV Meppen LWWL

W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.

Verl vs SV Meppen head-to-head

Last 6 meetings

3Verl wins 1Draws 2SV Meppen wins
DateHomeAwayCompetitionScore
2023-03-14SV MeppenVerl3. Liga1-3
2022-09-12VerlSV Meppen3. Liga2-2
2022-01-26VerlSV Meppen3. Liga0-1
2021-08-21SV MeppenVerl3. Liga2-0
2021-01-30VerlSV Meppen3. Liga3-1
2020-10-03SV MeppenVerl3. Liga1-2

League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.

Verl vs SV Meppen odds

Odds comparison

latest snapshot per book

Median de-vigged market: home 43.2%, draw 25.2%, away 31.5%.

Bookmaker1X2
1xBet 2.03 3.74 2.94
Bet365 2.10 3.50 3.00
BetVictor 1.95 3.25 2.63
Betano 2.12 3.75 3.00
Betfair 2.05 3.60 2.88
Marathonbet 2.01 3.74 2.89
Pinnacle 2.17 4.12 2.84
SBO 2.14 3.26 2.66
William Hill 2.15 3.40 2.80

Odds movement

Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.

1 2.10 ▲ +0.10
X 3.60 ▼ -0.12
2 2.88 ▼ -0.11

4 snapshots recorded, from .