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3. Liga · Full time ·Matchday 5

FC Saarbrücken vs FC Ingolstadt 04

0 – 1 Full time

23′Keanan Bennetts
27′Lars Lokotsch
39′Nishan Velupillay
56′Christian KühlwetterKai Brünker
56′Kelsey OwusuMaurice Multhaup
61′Keanan BennettsLinus Rosenlocher
61′Max PlathYannick Deichmann
62′Lukas Fröde
68′Emre GulJosef Ganda
71′Alexander StaffSeung-joon Lee
71′Philip FahrnerCalogero Rizzuto
72′Yannick Deichmann
85′Niko BretschneiderAnton Bäuerle
86′Lars LokotschSejdo Durakov
90′Daniel Gleiber

Ludwigspark StadionReferee: M. Nather

FC Saarbrücken 47%
Draw 24%
FC Ingolstadt 04 29%

Confidence: Low  ·  blended with market odds

Match stats

12 Shots 8
4 Shots on target 3
56 Possession % 44
7 Corners 2

FC Saarbrücken vs FC Ingolstadt 04 overview

Garuda Lions analysis: FC Saarbrücken vs FC Ingolstadt 04

model vs market on the 1X2
ProbabilityFC SaarbrückenDrawFC Ingolstadt 04
Model55.3%20.8%23.9%
Market44.4%24.9%30.7%
Final47.1%23.9%29.0%
Edge+10.9%-4.1%-6.8%

Confidence: Low

Why FC Saarbrücken

  • Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.39 vs 1.56.
  • The market prices FC Saarbrücken below the model: +10.9 percentage points of edge.

Scoreline probability

model grid

Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.

FC Saarbrücken ↓ / FC Ingolstadt → 0 1 2 3 4+ 0 1 8% 6% 2 5% 9% 7% 3 4% 7% 5% 4+ 5% 7% 6%

Goal probability

Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.

1+ goals 97%
2+ goals 91%
3+ goals 75%
No goals 3%

FC Saarbrücken and FC Ingolstadt 04 expected goals

FC Saarbrücken 2.39
FC Ingolstadt 04 1.56

Total expected goals: 3.95

FC Saarbrücken and FC Ingolstadt 04 attack and defence ratings

FC Saarbrücken

Attack 1.31 +31%
Defence 1.02 +2%

FC Ingolstadt 04

Attack 1.05 +5%
Defence 1.04 +4%

Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.

FC Saarbrücken vs FC Ingolstadt 04: result vs prediction

FC Saarbrücken 0 – 1 FC Ingolstadt 04

MarketOutcome
1X2 pick✗ Incorrect
Over/Under 2.5 pick✗ Incorrect
BTTS pick✗ Incorrect

Other Matchday 5 fixtures

3. Liga

Before and after this match

FC Saarbrücken vs FC Ingolstadt 04 markets

Best value

the model's strongest selection per market
MarketModel pickProbabilityFair oddsEdgeBest price
1X2 FC Saarbrücken 47.1% 2.12 +10.9% —
Over/Under 2.5 Over 2.5 75.5% 1.32 — —
Both teams to score Yes 72.5% 1.38 — —
Double chance 12 (either side) 76.1% 1.31 — —
Handicap -1 Loss 44.7% 2.24 — —

Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.

All probabilities

all probabilities from one model grid
MarketSelectionProbability
1X2FC Saarbrücken47.1%
Draw23.9%
FC Ingolstadt 0429.0%
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.575.5%
Under 2.524.5%
Both teams to scoreYes72.5%
No27.5%
Double chance1X (home or draw)71.0%
12 (either side)76.1%
X2 (draw or away)52.9%
Handicap -1FC Saarbrücken win35.5%
Push (exactly one goal)19.8%
Loss44.7%
Correct score (top 3)2-18.6%
1-17.9%
3-16.8%

FC Saarbrücken vs FC Ingolstadt 04 stats

FC Saarbrücken and FC Ingolstadt 04 recent form

newest first
FC Saarbrücken WLDWWL
FC Ingolstadt 04 LWDDWW

W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.

FC Saarbrücken vs FC Ingolstadt 04 head-to-head

Last 10 meetings

1FC Saarbrücken wins 4Draws 5FC Ingolstadt 04 wins
DateHomeAwayCompetitionScore
2026-04-05FC SaarbrückenFC Ingolstadt 043. Liga1-0
2025-10-25FC Ingolstadt 04FC Saarbrücken3. Liga2-1
2025-02-01FC Ingolstadt 04FC Saarbrücken3. Liga1-0
2024-08-24FC SaarbrückenFC Ingolstadt 043. Liga2-3
2024-01-27FC SaarbrückenFC Ingolstadt 043. Liga0-2
2023-08-26FC Ingolstadt 04FC Saarbrücken3. Liga2-2
2023-02-18FC SaarbrückenFC Ingolstadt 043. Liga3-4
2022-08-13FC Ingolstadt 04FC Saarbrücken3. Liga0-0
2021-05-08FC Ingolstadt 04FC Saarbrücken3. Liga0-0
2020-12-19FC SaarbrückenFC Ingolstadt 043. Liga3-3

League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.

FC Saarbrücken vs FC Ingolstadt 04 odds

Odds comparison

latest snapshot per book

Median de-vigged market: home 44.4%, draw 24.9%, away 30.7%.

Bookmaker1X2
1xBet 2.02 3.74 2.97
Bet365 2.05 3.40 2.90
BetVictor 1.91 3.25 2.70
Betano 2.18 3.60 3.00
Betfair 2.00 3.60 3.00
Marathonbet 2.00 3.74 2.92
Pinnacle 2.06 4.03 3.10
SBO 2.03 3.35 2.80
William Hill 2.00 3.60 2.90

Odds movement

Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.

1 2.02 ▼ -0.43
X 3.60 ▼ -0.15
2 2.92 ▲ +0.46

13 snapshots recorded, from .