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3. Liga · Full time ·Matchday 6

FC Ingolstadt 04 vs Hoffenheim II

1 – 2 Full time

29′Klaus Gjasula
31′Nishan Velupillay
43′Y. Zor
52′Florian Micheler
54′Keanan BennettsJosef Ganda
54′Vinko SapinaEmre Gul
59′Florian MichelerLuis Engelns
59′jakov dedicJykese Fields
75′Blessing Makanda MalekoKonstantin aleksa
80′Nishan Velupillaybenjamin kanuric
80′Lukas FrödeElias Decker
84′Jykese Fields
86′Yannick DeichmannOgnjen Drakulic
89′Juan Tiago Esteban PollerDiren Dağdeviren

Audi Sportpark, IngolstadtReferee: L. Sambill

FC Ingolstadt 04 44%
Draw 25%
Hoffenheim II 31%

Confidence: Low  ·  blended with market odds

Match stats

12 Shots 13
4 Shots on target 6
49 Possession % 51
4 Corners 9

FC Ingolstadt 04 vs Hoffenheim II overview

Garuda Lions analysis: FC Ingolstadt 04 vs Hoffenheim II

model vs market on the 1X2
ProbabilityFC Ingolstadt 04DrawHoffenheim II
Model46.3%24.7%29.0%
Market43.8%25.1%31.2%
Final44.4%25.0%30.6%
Edge+2.5%-0.3%-2.2%

Confidence: Low

Why FC Ingolstadt 04

  • Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.83 vs 1.42.
  • Better recent form: 3 wins in the last 6 vs 2 for the opposition.
  • The market prices FC Ingolstadt 04 below the model: +2.5 percentage points of edge.

Scoreline probability

model grid

Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.

FC Ingolstadt ↓ / Hoffenheim II → 0 1 2 3 4+ 0 1 6% 11% 7% 2 6% 9% 7% 3 6% 4+

Goal probability

Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.

1+ goals 95%
2+ goals 85%
3+ goals 63%
No goals 5%

FC Ingolstadt 04 and Hoffenheim II expected goals

FC Ingolstadt 04 1.83
Hoffenheim II 1.42

Total expected goals: 3.25

FC Ingolstadt 04 and Hoffenheim II attack and defence ratings

FC Ingolstadt 04

Attack 1.01 +1%
Defence 0.94 -6%

Hoffenheim II

Attack 1.03 +3%
Defence 1.03 +3%

Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.

FC Ingolstadt 04 vs Hoffenheim II: result vs prediction

FC Ingolstadt 04 1 – 2 Hoffenheim II

MarketOutcome
1X2 pick✗ Incorrect
Over/Under 2.5 pick✓ Correct
BTTS pick✓ Correct

Other Matchday 6 fixtures

3. Liga

Before and after this match

FC Ingolstadt 04 vs Hoffenheim II markets

Best value

the model's strongest selection per market
MarketModel pickProbabilityFair oddsEdgeBest price
1X2 FC Ingolstadt 04 44.4% 2.25 +2.5% —
Over/Under 2.5 Over 2.5 63.1% 1.59 — —
Both teams to score Yes 64.7% 1.55 — —
Double chance 12 (either side) 75.0% 1.33 — —
Handicap -1 Loss 53.7% 1.86 — —

Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.

All probabilities

all probabilities from one model grid
MarketSelectionProbability
1X2FC Ingolstadt 0444.4%
Draw25.0%
Hoffenheim II30.6%
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.563.1%
Under 2.536.9%
Both teams to scoreYes64.7%
No35.3%
Double chance1X (home or draw)69.4%
12 (either side)75.0%
X2 (draw or away)55.6%
Handicap -1FC Ingolstadt 04 win26.0%
Push (exactly one goal)20.3%
Loss53.7%
Correct score (top 3)1-111.1%
2-19.2%
1-27.1%

FC Ingolstadt 04 vs Hoffenheim II stats

FC Ingolstadt 04 and Hoffenheim II recent form

newest first
FC Ingolstadt 04 WLWDDW
Hoffenheim II DLWWLL

W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.

FC Ingolstadt 04 and Hoffenheim II going into this match

league record before kick-off

FC Ingolstadt 04 record

  • They have won 2 of their 5 league games this season, scoring 1.2 goals per match.

Hoffenheim II record

  • They have won 2 of their 5 league games this season, scoring 2.2 goals per match.

FC Ingolstadt 04 vs Hoffenheim II head-to-head

Last 2 meetings

2FC Ingolstadt 04 wins 0Draws 0Hoffenheim II wins
DateHomeAwayCompetitionScore
2026-04-25Hoffenheim IIFC Ingolstadt 043. Liga0-3
2025-11-29FC Ingolstadt 04Hoffenheim II3. Liga3-2

League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.

FC Ingolstadt 04 vs Hoffenheim II odds

Odds comparison

latest snapshot per book

Median de-vigged market: home 43.8%, draw 25.1%, away 31.2%.

Bookmaker1X2
1xBet 2.05 3.58 2.95
Bet365 2.05 3.60 2.80
BetVictor 1.91 3.40 2.63
Betano 2.18 3.85 2.85
Betfair 2.00 3.60 3.00
Marathonbet 2.03 3.58 2.88
Pinnacle 2.18 3.85 3.01
SBO 1.93 3.36 3.00
William Hill 2.10 3.50 2.80

Odds movement

Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.

1 2.05 ▲ +0.40
X 3.58 ▼ -0.49
2 2.88 ▼ -1.04

10 snapshots recorded, from .