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3. Liga · Full time ·Matchday 6

Würzburger Kickers vs Alemannia Aachen

1 – 0 Full time

24′Daniel HägeleL. Eberle
33′Franck evina
41′Tarsis Bonga
43′N. Embaye
72′Georg ErmolaevLukas Scepanik
72′Kacper KoscierskiJustin von der Hitz
74′Dominik MeiselLouis Breunig
74′N. EmbayePhilipp Ochs
77′Nathan De Medina
79′Mersad Selimbegovic
81′Louis KösterNathan Bitumazala
83′Nathan De MedinaTim·Kraus
83′ivan franjicThomas Kastanaras
86′Stefan Bajić
87′Dylan LeonardManuel Riemann
87′Mika SchroersD. Starodid
90′Jonas Oehmichen
90′L. Omore
90′Mehdi Loune

Flyeralarm Arena, WurzburgerReferee: M. Wilke

Würzburger Kickers 25%
Draw 23%
Alemannia Aachen 52%

Confidence: Low  ·  blended with market odds

Match stats

7 Shots 12
3 Shots on target 7
39 Possession % 61
2 Corners 7

Würzburger Kickers vs Alemannia Aachen overview

Garuda Lions analysis: Würzburger Kickers vs Alemannia Aachen

model vs market on the 1X2
ProbabilityWürzburger KickersDrawAlemannia Aachen
Model14.8%16.9%68.3%
Market28.6%25.4%46.0%
Final25.1%23.2%51.6%
Edge-13.8%-8.5%+22.2%

Confidence: Low

Why Alemannia Aachen

  • Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.86 vs 1.34.
  • Better recent form: 3 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.
  • The market prices Alemannia Aachen below the model: +22.2 percentage points of edge.

Scoreline probability

model grid

Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.

Würzburger Kic ↓ / Alemannia Aach → 0 1 2 3 4+ 0 6% 6% 8% 1 6% 8% 8% 11% 2 8% 3 4+

Goal probability

Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.

1+ goals 98%
2+ goals 93%
3+ goals 79%
No goals 2%

Würzburger Kickers and Alemannia Aachen expected goals

Würzburger Kickers 1.34
Alemannia Aachen 2.86

Total expected goals: 4.20

Würzburger Kickers and Alemannia Aachen attack and defence ratings

Würzburger Kickers

Attack 0.99 -1%
Defence 1.38 +38%

Alemannia Aachen

Attack 1.41 +41%
Defence 0.77 -23%

Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.

Würzburger Kickers vs Alemannia Aachen: result vs prediction

Würzburger Kickers 1 – 0 Alemannia Aachen

MarketOutcome
1X2 pick✗ Incorrect
Over/Under 2.5 pick✗ Incorrect
BTTS pick✗ Incorrect

Other Matchday 6 fixtures

3. Liga

Before and after this match

Würzburger Kickers vs Alemannia Aachen markets

Best value

the model's strongest selection per market
MarketModel pickProbabilityFair oddsEdgeBest price
1X2 Alemannia Aachen 51.6% 1.94 +22.2% —
Over/Under 2.5 Over 2.5 78.9% 1.27 — —
Both teams to score Yes 70.1% 1.43 — —
Double chance 12 (either side) 76.8% 1.30 — —
Handicap -1 Alemannia Aachen win 49.0% 2.04 — —

Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.

All probabilities

all probabilities from one model grid
MarketSelectionProbability
1X2Würzburger Kickers25.1%
Draw23.2%
Alemannia Aachen51.6%
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.578.9%
Under 2.521.1%
Both teams to scoreYes70.1%
No29.9%
Double chance1X (home or draw)48.4%
12 (either side)76.8%
X2 (draw or away)74.9%
Handicap -1Alemannia Aachen win49.0%
Push (exactly one goal)19.2%
Loss31.7%
Correct score (top 3)1-28.2%
1-37.8%
1-16.3%

Würzburger Kickers vs Alemannia Aachen stats

Würzburger Kickers and Alemannia Aachen recent form

newest first
Würzburger Kickers LLLLWD
Alemannia Aachen DWLDWW

W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.

Würzburger Kickers and Alemannia Aachen going into this match

league record before kick-off

Würzburger Kickers record

  • They have won 1 of their 5 league games this season, scoring 1.8 goals per match.
  • 40% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.

Alemannia Aachen record

  • They have won 2 of their 5 league games this season, scoring 2.0 goals per match.
  • 36% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.

Würzburger Kickers vs Alemannia Aachen head-to-head

No recent meetings on record

Our head-to-head history covers these clubs' top-flight matches from 2014 onwards — these two simply haven't crossed paths in that window (newly promoted sides and cross-division pairings are the usual reason). The prediction doesn't rely on H2H: it is built from each team's current expected-goals ratings.

Würzburger Kickers vs Alemannia Aachen odds

Odds comparison

latest snapshot per book

Median de-vigged market: home 28.6%, draw 25.4%, away 46.0%.

Bookmaker1X2
1xBet 3.21 3.54 1.95
Bet365 3.20 3.40 1.95
BetVictor 2.90 3.25 1.83
Betano 3.30 3.65 2.02
Betfair 3.10 3.60 1.95
Marathonbet 3.14 3.54 1.93
Pinnacle 3.27 3.93 2.04
SBO 3.09 3.30 1.99
William Hill 3.10 3.50 1.95

Odds movement

Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.

1 3.14 ▲ +0.05
X 3.54 ▼ -0.06
2 1.95 ▼ -0.09

10 snapshots recorded, from .