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DFB Pokal · Full time ·Round of 64

SpVgg Greuther Fürth vs Bochum

1 – 2 Full time

Sportpark Ronhof Thomas Sommer, FürthReferee: F. Lechner

SpVgg Greuther Fürth 28%
Draw 27%
Bochum 45%

Confidence: Low  ·  blended with market odds

SpVgg Greuther Fürth vs Bochum overview

Garuda Lions analysis: SpVgg Greuther Fürth vs Bochum

model vs market on the 1X2
ProbabilitySpVgg Greuther FürthDrawBochum
Model12.1%24.6%63.3%
Market33.8%27.6%38.6%
Final28.4%26.8%44.8%
Edge-21.7%-3.0%+24.7%

Confidence: Low

Why Bochum

  • Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.77 vs 0.65.
  • Better recent form: 3 wins in the last 6 vs 2 for the opposition.
  • The market prices Bochum below the model: +24.7 percentage points of edge.

Scoreline probability

model grid

Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.

SpVgg Greuther ↓ / Bochum → 0 1 2 3 4+ 0 10% 15% 14% 8% 1 11% 9% 2 3 4+

Goal probability

Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.

1+ goals 90%
2+ goals 70%
3+ goals 43%
No goals 10%

SpVgg Greuther Fürth and Bochum expected goals

SpVgg Greuther Fürth 0.65
Bochum 1.77

Total expected goals: 2.41

SpVgg Greuther Fürth and Bochum attack and defence ratings

SpVgg Greuther Fürth

Attack 0.87 -13%
Defence 0.88 -12%

Bochum

Attack 0.82 -18%
Defence 0.81 -19%

Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.

SpVgg Greuther Fürth vs Bochum: result vs prediction

SpVgg Greuther Fürth 1 – 2 Bochum

MarketOutcome
1X2 pick✓ Correct
Over/Under 2.5 pick✗ Incorrect
BTTS pick✗ Incorrect

Other Round of 64 fixtures

DFB Pokal

Before and after this match

SpVgg Greuther Fürth vs Bochum markets

Best value

the model's strongest selection per market
MarketModel pickProbabilityFair oddsEdgeBest price
1X2 Bochum 44.8% 2.23 +24.7% —
Over/Under 2.5 Under 2.5 56.6% 1.77 — —
Both teams to score No 59.5% 1.68 — —
Double chance 12 (either side) 73.2% 1.37 — —
Handicap -1 Bochum win 37.6% 2.66 — —

Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.

All probabilities

all probabilities from one model grid
MarketSelectionProbability
1X2SpVgg Greuther Fürth28.4%
Draw26.8%
Bochum44.8%
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.543.4%
Under 2.556.6%
Both teams to scoreYes40.5%
No59.5%
Double chance1X (home or draw)55.2%
12 (either side)73.2%
X2 (draw or away)71.6%
Handicap -1Bochum win37.6%
Push (exactly one goal)25.7%
Loss36.7%
Correct score (top 3)0-114.8%
0-214.0%
1-111.3%

SpVgg Greuther Fürth vs Bochum stats

SpVgg Greuther Fürth and Bochum recent form

newest first
SpVgg Greuther Fürth LDWLWL
Bochum WLWDDW

W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.

SpVgg Greuther Fürth vs Bochum head-to-head

Last 9 meetings

2SpVgg Greuther Fürth wins 1Draws 6Bochum wins
DateHomeAwayCompetitionScore
2026-04-26BochumSpVgg Greuther Fürth2. Bundesliga2-1
2025-11-29SpVgg Greuther FürthBochum2. Bundesliga0-3
2022-03-05BochumSpVgg Greuther FürthBundesliga2-1
2021-10-16SpVgg Greuther FürthBochumBundesliga0-1
2021-03-06SpVgg Greuther FürthBochum2. Bundesliga1-2
2020-11-07BochumSpVgg Greuther Fürth2. Bundesliga0-2
2020-06-21BochumSpVgg Greuther Fürth2. Bundesliga2-2
2019-12-07SpVgg Greuther FürthBochum2. Bundesliga3-1
2019-04-14BochumSpVgg Greuther Fürth2. Bundesliga3-2

League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.

SpVgg Greuther Fürth vs Bochum odds

Odds comparison

latest snapshot per book

Median de-vigged market: home 34.1%, draw 27.6%, away 38.3%.

Bookmaker1X2
10Bet 2.48 3.50 2.48
1xBet 2.74 3.36 2.44
888Sport 2.70 3.30 2.40
Bet365 2.90 3.30 2.38
BetVictor 2.70 3.50 2.30
Betano 2.82 3.25 2.45
Betfair 2.70 3.70 2.40
Dafabet 2.90 3.50 2.45
Marathonbet 2.74 3.36 2.44
Pinnacle 2.81 3.40 2.50
SBO 2.60 3.19 2.20
Superbet 2.80 3.35 2.40
Unibet 2.65 3.50 2.50
William Hill 2.70 3.30 2.40

Odds movement

Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.

1 2.74 ▲ +0.03
X 3.36 ▼ -0.06
2 2.40 ▼ -0.04

3 snapshots recorded, from .