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2. Bundesliga · Full time ·Matchday 6

Holstein Kiel vs VfL Osnabrück

1 – 1 Full time

1′Robin Fabinski
9′Jonathan Gómez
10′David Zec
19′Fridolin Wagner
29′Hiroki Sekine
45′Phil Harres
63′Fridolin WagnerDaniel-Kofi Kyereh
69′Gyan de RegtSteven Skrzybski
70′Noah Madsen
72′Hiroki Sekine
73′Bernd RiesselmannLuca Raimund
73′Patrick KammerbauerKonrad Faber
74′David Zec
87′Jonathan GómezJoel Abu Hanna
87′Robin MeißnerLeon Opitz
89′Hiroki SekineIkem Ugoh
89′Guillermo BalziGiorgi Kvilitaia
90′Timo Schultz

Holstein-Stadion, KielReferee: Tom Bauer

Holstein Kiel 52%
Draw 24%
VfL Osnabrück 24%

Confidence: Low  ·  blended with market odds

Match stats

18 Shots 14
4 Shots on target 3
58 Possession % 42
10 Corners 1
11 Fouls 15
1 Offsides 2
3 Saves 3
449 Accurate passes 290

Holstein Kiel vs VfL Osnabrück overview

Garuda Lions analysis: Holstein Kiel vs VfL Osnabrück

model vs market on the 1X2
ProbabilityHolstein KielDrawVfL Osnabrück
Model47.7%24.5%27.8%
Market53.9%23.6%22.5%
Final52.4%23.8%23.8%
Edge-6.2%+0.9%+5.3%

Confidence: Low

Why Holstein Kiel

  • Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.87 vs 1.39.

Scoreline probability

model grid

Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.

Holstein Kiel ↓ / VfL Osnabrück → 0 1 2 3 4+ 0 1 6% 11% 7% 2 7% 9% 6% 3 6% 4+

Goal probability

Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.

1+ goals 95%
2+ goals 85%
3+ goals 63%
No goals 5%

Holstein Kiel and VfL Osnabrück expected goals

Holstein Kiel 1.87
VfL Osnabrück 1.39

Total expected goals: 3.26

Holstein Kiel and VfL Osnabrück attack and defence ratings

Holstein Kiel

Attack 0.94 -6%
Defence 0.94 -6%

VfL Osnabrück

Attack 1.11 +11%
Defence 1.20 +20%

Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.

Holstein Kiel vs VfL Osnabrück: result vs prediction

Holstein Kiel 1 – 1 VfL Osnabrück

MarketOutcome
1X2 pick✗ Incorrect
Over/Under 2.5 pick✗ Incorrect
BTTS pick✓ Correct

Other Matchday 6 fixtures

2. Bundesliga

Before and after this match

Holstein Kiel vs VfL Osnabrück markets

Best value

the model's strongest selection per market
MarketModel pickProbabilityFair oddsEdgeBest price
1X2 Holstein Kiel 52.4% 1.91 -6.2% —
Over/Under 2.5 Over 2.5 63.2% 1.58 — —
Both teams to score Yes 64.5% 1.55 — —
Double chance 1X (home or draw) 76.2% 1.31 — —
Handicap -1 Loss 52.3% 1.91 — —

Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.

All probabilities

all probabilities from one model grid
MarketSelectionProbability
1X2Holstein Kiel52.4%
Draw23.8%
VfL Osnabrück23.8%
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.563.2%
Under 2.536.8%
Both teams to scoreYes64.5%
No35.5%
Double chance1X (home or draw)76.2%
12 (either side)76.2%
X2 (draw or away)47.6%
Handicap -1Holstein Kiel win27.2%
Push (exactly one goal)20.5%
Loss52.3%
Correct score (top 3)1-111.0%
2-19.3%
1-27.0%

Holstein Kiel vs VfL Osnabrück stats

Holstein Kiel and VfL Osnabrück recent form

newest first
Holstein Kiel LDLWDD
VfL Osnabrück LWLWLL

W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.

Holstein Kiel and VfL Osnabrück going into this match

league record before kick-off

Holstein Kiel record

  • They have won 0 of their 5 league games this season, scoring 1.2 goals per match.

VfL Osnabrück record

  • They have won 2 of their 5 league games this season, scoring 1.6 goals per match.

Holstein Kiel vs VfL Osnabrück head-to-head

Last 10 meetings

5Holstein Kiel wins 1Draws 4VfL Osnabrück wins
DateHomeAwayCompetitionScore
2025-07-26VfL OsnabrückHolstein KielFriendlies Clubs0-1
2024-04-13Holstein KielVfL Osnabrück2. Bundesliga4-0
2023-11-04VfL OsnabrückHolstein Kiel2. Bundesliga1-1
2023-01-07Holstein KielVfL OsnabrückFriendlies Clubs5-3
2022-01-08Holstein KielVfL OsnabrückFriendlies Clubs3-2
2021-04-24VfL OsnabrückHolstein Kiel2. Bundesliga1-3
2021-01-03Holstein KielVfL Osnabrück2. Bundesliga1-2
2020-06-21VfL OsnabrückHolstein Kiel2. Bundesliga4-1
2019-12-07Holstein KielVfL Osnabrück2. Bundesliga2-4
2017-03-10VfL OsnabrückHolstein Kiel3. Liga2-1

League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.

Holstein Kiel vs VfL Osnabrück odds

Odds comparison

latest snapshot per book

Median de-vigged market: home 53.9%, draw 23.6%, away 22.5%.

Bookmaker1X2
1xBet 1.74 3.95 4.12
Bet365 1.73 3.90 4.10
BetVictor 1.70 4.00 4.20
Betano 1.80 4.20 4.40
Betfair 1.70 4.00 4.20
Marathonbet 1.72 3.95 4.15
Pinnacle 1.76 4.12 4.42
SBO 1.73 3.54 3.49
William Hill 1.70 3.80 4.00

Odds movement

Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.

1 1.73 ▼ -0.08
X 3.95 ▲ +0.10
2 4.15 ▲ +0.15

13 snapshots recorded, from .